Nobody buys these on xbox so they have to put it on Gamepass
Basically.
I’m concerned if these games hitting gamespass hurts their PlayStation sales performance because it’s possible we can just wait for it to hit the bargain bin further to make its appearance on Extra six months later….
Wait and see on that I suppose.
Yes, this is going to be what to look for. I think the hardcore Persona fans on PS will buy the game Day 1 regardless; they pretty much already have a PS console, they are also probably FF fans hence why they would pick up a PS over an Xbox console-wise.
However if these Persona games, or if it turns out to be on Xbox Day 1, Persona 6, being Day 1 in Game Pass will probably give at least a few of the hardcore and a larger amount of the core & casual Persona fans pause in picking the games up Day 1 on PS, if they can either just play them for cheap in Game Pass or wait a while for them to eventually show up in PS+.
And that can not only hurt the franchise, but hurt MS's ability to negotiate future Persona deals for Game Pass because I think they count on high B2P sales on non Game Pass platforms to keep the costs for these deals on the lower side. And yes, I don't think MS are paying as much for these games as people think, partly because of expected baked-in sales on other platforms and also because of their seemingly strategic partnership with Sega through the Azure team which, quite evidently, has benefits for Xbox and Game Pass.
Though FWIW I don't think Sony is paying as much upfront for the FF games as people want to think, either, for comparable reasons (low B2P sales on Xbox, other incentives provided through Sony for the games, etc.).
The other side of this question though as always is, how big is the subset of the core & casual Persona market on PlayStation consoles willing to forgo buying Day 1 vs. leverage Game Pass for the game, or wait for them to show up in PS+, or wait for a sale? I think most of Persona's audience on PlayStation at this point are hardcore & core fans of the IP, since it's been on PlayStation for so many years.
But that doesn't make the number of newer casuals to the IP on the platform insignificant in number.