Disagree heavily. Gamepass will destroy their call of duty margins. I'm eagerly anticipating the q3 earnings report because imho it's going to be the nail in the coffin of xbox as a hardware platform and gamepass as a software platform.
Strongly disagree because those who only play COD every year will still buy the game on Xbox. They're not going anywhere nor are they going to sign up for Game Pass Ultimate. Those who play a few games a year and COD is one of them, they'll just buy the game as well. Game Pass Ultimate will mostly get those like me who'll play the campaign and then move on.
I don't see any of this being a nail in the coffin of Xbox hardware or Game Pass because the consoles aren't what Microsoft cares about the most. What they care about the most is overall revenue and profit followed by player base for the games themselves. In order to accomplish this, they'll do what they started doing years ago which is release their games everywhere. The Xbox consoles will sell 30-50m as will next generation and that will be more than enough for Microsoft because it's not only about the consoles. It's about their overall platform and eco-system.
Xbox consoles will be there as an option for those like me who simply prefer the platform, eco-system and want to play there including those who already do. The Xbox consoles aren't about getting new people. It's about retaining what they have which they will via Game Pass and/or those who simply prefer it all as their main gaming platform. Microsoft will use all the other platforms out there including but not limited to PlayStation to grow the IP's and games themselves.
If anything, I don't see Xbox hardware going anywhere because of Microsoft's third party direction. It's going to bring in more revenue and profit than ever before which they were already doing when compared to previous generations. Will Xbox consoles be #1 or #2? Hell no. But Microsoft won't need it to be. Microsoft isn't going to sacrifice the 30% cut from third party publishers which regardless of what anyone wants to believe is literally the strongest and best it's ever been and that includes Xbox 360.
We'll see what happens but since they've basically already announced their next generation console(s) are in research and development, I don't see Xbox going anywhere. Funny thing is that their third party direction could keep the Xbox brand, consoles, platform and eco-system alive far longer than if they just stayed "exclusive" because Sony/Nintendo are simply too strong brand name wise and are both worldwide, I don't believe that would have done anything to grow Xbox consoles.
The only way I ever believed that they would have had any chance at being a powerhouse and surpassing Sony/Nintendo would have been if COD was 100% console exclusive to Xbox as I do believe that IP is by far the biggest in the industry and on a yearly basis, even a so called shitty COD game like MW III still sold 20m+ or some shit. Once Microsoft announced that COD would remain multi-platform, any chance of that happening ended.
Microsoft wants to simply become the game industry's biggest publisher which let's be honest, they probably will be if they're not already (and yes, you could argue that they already are) while keeping Xbox console(s) around for those like me who prefer it over PlayStation as well as those who want to save money long term due to Game Pass Ultimate while at the same time, getting that 30% cut from third party publishers.
Microsoft and the Xbox brand will be just fine. The only people who even give a shit about them porting games to Sony/Nintendo platforms are the extremists which is such a small percentage that in all honesty, they don't even matter.