The Gran Turismo Movie Debuts With "A" On CinemaScore.

historia

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It deserved to flop because not enough Jazz, GT Movie my ass.

Also I haven't seen it premiered anywhere in my country yet, home of GT yet no premier, seriously Sony?
 

ethomaz

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So basically, another amazing success by Jimbo that will cost Sony > 100 million. Guy just keeps on winning.
How do you make that math? With that opening it will do around $150-200m.

It is not a failure but probably will make money.
 

Entropi

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I watched this movie twice in the theaters. I’m shocked it wasn’t a bigger success, the audience felt really pleased.
 
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Darth Vader

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How do you make that math? With that opening it will do around $150-200m.

It is not a failure but probably will make money.

You were so far off the mark that it's actually funny.



For the movie to break even it will have to do around 150M, and I'm being nice here since this is a mid budget movie and not a blockbuster. Sony will be lucky if the movie reaches 120M considering nobody is watching it anymore. If you're interested on some analysis on how to calculate all the revenue figures etc check below, some very interesting data + linked analysis for it.



So I maintain, another amazing success by Jimbo. I was wrong on the 100M, which I frankly pulled out of my ass, but this movie will cost Sony anything between 30 and 50M all said and done, and I highly doubt it has brought any sales.
 

ethomaz

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You were so far off the mark that it's actually funny.



For the movie to break even it will have to do around 150M, and I'm being nice here since this is a mid budget movie and not a blockbuster. Sony will be lucky if the movie reaches 120M considering nobody is watching it anymore. If you're interested on some analysis on how to calculate all the revenue figures etc check below, some very interesting data + linked analysis for it.



So I maintain, another amazing success by Jimbo. I was wrong on the 100M, which I frankly pulled out of my ass, but this movie will cost Sony anything between 30 and 50M all said and done, and I highly doubt it has brought any sales.

Off?

It is $93 million with several countries not included yet… it will probably end around $150-200 million… that is the average that titles with $17m in domestic opening did in the past.

BTW $430k in just domestic that accounts for ~32m of the ~93m.
 
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Darth Vader

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Off?

It is $93 million with several countries not included yet… it will probably end around $150-200 million… that is the average that titles with $17m in domestic opening did in the past.

BTW $430k in just domestic that accounts for ~32m of the ~93m.

Yes, off. First of all, as of the 10th of September, the movie has grossed $93.4M, out of which $35.7M are domestic. Box Office Mojo has this data, just look at the left-hand side since the totals below have not been fully updated.

Now, considering the 430k domestic on a Wednesday domestic, and if we assume Wednesdays only contribute around a 75% daily average over a course of 7 days, your 7-day rolling figure, starting on the 6th of September, will be of around $4M.

Now, remember the data in my first paragraph? You could consider the ratio between global vs domestic to be 2.6, however the movie premiered in the US on the 25th of August, whereas it premiered on most markets earlier in August. The movie is not available anymore in many countries / major cinema chains. UK, France, etc.

Regardless, even if you grabbed those 4M weekly and multiplied by 2.6, your 7-day rolling figure would be of just 10.4M in sales. Since movies stay in the cinema an average of 4 weeks (ignoring major blockbuster releases), the movie would need at least 5 1/2 more weeks in the theatres to make 150M.

If they are lucky, the movie will reach ~120M, but more realistically, it will reach 100 to 110M.

Also, what's the source for this?

that is the average that titles with $17m in domestic opening did in the past.
 

ethomaz

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You probably need to check again because... that's wrong.

The first movie in that list did $223,387,299.

You are looking only at domestic that is because you are mistaking it.
In the movie page choose "All Territories".


Let's take a game example from your list (997th)....


Domestic opening: $21,052,227
Domestic total gross: $42,345,531
Total gross: $240,159,255

Or Tomb Raider (851th):


Domestic opening: $23,633,317
Domestic total gross: $58,250,803
Total gross: $274,650,803

Gran Turismo seems to be tracking very similar to others game titles but a bit lower... so my $150 to $200 million... my lower end is very conservative.
 
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Darth Vader

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The first movie in that list did $223,387,299.

You are looking only at domestic that is because you are mistaking it.
In the movie page choose "All Territories".

Why do you feel the need to be patronising every time you have an argument with someone?

Let's take a game example from your list (997th)....

Domestic opening: $21,052,227
Domestic total gross: $42,345,531
Total gross: $240,159,255

Or Tomb Raider (851th):

Domestic opening: $23,633,317
Domestic total gross: $58,250,803
Total gross: $274,650,803

You can also pick many others that don't line up with your asspull estimates:

Pet Sematary [113M worldwide]
Haunted Mansion [101M worldwide]
Mortal Kombat [84M worldwide]

Now going back to actual Data, it's important to note that GT is number 514 on the biggest domestic second weekend drop-off charts.


This is important for our math because we can actually compare it to movies that grossed a similar amount (less than 25M opening weekend) and went on to make puny amounts of money.


Gran Turismo's drop off so far has been absolutely insane. The first weekend drop-of was of 53.9%, and we can assume it will continue that trajectory. With that in mind, here's some math based on a WoW 40% drop-off in domestic revenue, which is a very optimistic figure and in-line with normal box office drop offs, which GT is not following.

CK7hp0X.png


If you consider the above and multiply by the aforementioned 2.6 current domestic-to-international ratio (which will close, since the movie is already out of a load of markets), you have a best-case scenario of 123.5M run.

The only two scenarios where this movie surpasses 125M are
  • It has a surge in domestic popularity
  • It has extraordinary legs internationally
I will stand by my estimate of anything between 100 and 110M globally and will consider it a win if it reaches the 123.5M my napkin math gave me. Week 3 numbers should provide a much clearer picture

Edit - forgot to add that this weekend's data is estimated, not final.

Edit 2 - Also forgot to add that Week 2 performance had a delta of ~ 1.5M because of the Labor day holiday as well. Had it been a normal week and week 2 numbers would have been around 8.7M, which is horrible.
 
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ethomaz

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Why do you feel the need to be patronising every time you have an argument with someone?



You can also pick many others that don't line up with your asspull estimates:

Pet Sematary [113M worldwide]
Haunted Mansion [101M worldwide]
Mortal Kombat [84M worldwide]

Now going back to actual Data, it's important to note that GT is number 514 on the biggest domestic second weekend drop-off charts.


This is important for our math because we can actually compare it to movies that grossed a similar amount (less than 25M opening weekend) and went on to make puny amounts of money.


Gran Turismo's drop off so far has been absolutely insane. The first weekend drop-of was of 53.9%, and we can assume it will continue that trajectory. With that in mind, here's some math based on a WoW 40% drop-off in domestic revenue, which is a very optimistic figure and in-line with normal box office drop offs, which GT is not following.

CK7hp0X.png


If you consider the above and multiply by the aforementioned 2.6 current domestic-to-international ratio (which will close, since the movie is already out of a load of markets), you have a best-case scenario of 123.5M run.

The only two scenarios where this movie surpasses 125M are
  • It has a surge in domestic popularity
  • It has extraordinary legs internationally
I will stand by my estimate of anything between 100 and 110M globally and will consider it a win if it reaches the 123.5M my napkin math gave me. Week 3 numbers should provide a much clearer picture

Edit - forgot to add that this weekend's data is estimated, not final.

Edit 2 - Also forgot to add that Week 2 performance had a delta of ~ 1.5M because of the Labor day holiday as well. Had it been a normal week and week 2 numbers would have been around 8.7M, which is horrible.
You listed two games that already did less than GT.
And another that did $120m.

Don't you see your examples are not what GT is doing? 🤷‍♂️
 

Darth Vader

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You listed two games that already did less than GT.
And another that did $120m.

Don't you see your examples are not what GT is doing? 🤷‍♂️

First, I listed movies, not games.
Second, all movies I've listed did more on the first domestic weekend when compared to GT, with the exception of Catwoman.

So, zero counterarguments? Zero math to prove me wrong?

That's what I thought.
 

ethomaz

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First, I listed movies, not games.
Second, all movies I've listed did more on the first domestic weekend when compared to GT, with the exception of Catwoman.

So, zero counterarguments? Zero math to prove me wrong?

That's what I thought.
?

Catwoman ($82m) and TMNT ($95m) already did less than GT (yes I'm tacking that in few days GT will be over $95m).
Elder's Game did a 50% international split (probably due the lack of international tracking... it was 2013)... GT is already at 62% and growing.

You are comparing apple to oranges.

Edit - Let's take a random 2022 release similar with GT.


Domestic opening: $12,891,123
Total gross: $137,307,235 (~67% international)

Or better let's take another gaming movie launched in 2022:


Domestic opening: $44,010,155
Total gross: $407,141,258 (~64% international)

Look at the domestic/international split that is very similar to GT.
 
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Darth Vader

I find your lack of faith disturbing
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?

Catwoman ($82m) and TMNT ($95m) already did less than GT (yes I'm tacking that in few days GT will be over $95m).
Elder's Game did a 50% international split (probably due the lack of international tracking... it was 2013)... GT is already at 62% and growing.

You are comparing apple to oranges.

You're comparing one movie's domestic with another movie's global, my man, which is effectively comparing Apple's to Oranges. You either compare domestic with domestic, or global with global, and even then it's not nearly a 1:1 comparison. Let me make this even clearer using the data we currently have:
  • Assuming a very optimistic domestic run of 12 weeks with a 40% weekly drop-off week-on-week, the movie will gross around 47.5M
  • If we assume the current domestic-to-global gross revenue ratio of 2.6 as the final ratio, the movie will gross 47.5*2.6=123.5M
  • I'ts much more realistic to assume a 50% weekly drop-off, which will put the 12 week run at 42.5M. With the same ratio, it will reach 110.5M
  • It's very likely that the final domestic-to-global ratio will decrease, not increase.
Now, we can actually estimate daily week-on-week numbers domestically to reach some sort of prediction:

DX6nWSe.png


So based on this, the current week we're looking at around 4.2M revenue, already a far cry from the 6M a week-on-week conservative estimate would yield. Notes:
  • The numbers for monday the 11th are like that because I needed to estimate based on tuesday's figures and natural drop off. There's a lot of guess work, since the previous week was heavily conditioned by a holiday that had a +- 1.7M positive effect on revenue
  • The week on week daily drop off are, as you can see, based on the the previous week's. This is not very scientific, but even replacing those values with "40%" or less doesn't change much since the baseline is already very low.
Again, once we have this week's data the picture will be much clearer. My best guess based on plugging the numbers above and course correcting my quick estimates.
  • Week 3 [current week] Domestic sales need to surpass $5.5M for the movie to reach $120M
  • Week 3 domestic sales will sit between $4.2M and 4.8M, which will place the full run for this movie between 106M and 115M
  • Week 3 should see a WoW drop-off between 52% and 59%
  • Final domestic run will sit between $40M and $47M
 
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ethomaz

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You're comparing one movie's domestic with another movie's global, my man, which is effectively comparing Apple's to Oranges. You either compare domestic with domestic, or global with global, and even then it's not nearly a 1:1 comparison. Let me make this even clearer using the data we currently have:
  • Assuming a very optimistic domestic run of 12 weeks with a 40% weekly drop-off week-on-week, the movie will gross around 47.5M
  • If we assume the current domestic-to-global gross revenue ratio of 2.6 as the final ratio, the movie will gross 47.5*2.6=123.5M
  • I'ts much more realistic to assume a 50% weekly drop-off, which will put the 12 week run at 42.5M. With the same ratio, it will reach 110.5M
  • It's very likely that the final domestic-to-global ratio will decrease, not increase.
Now, we can actually estimate daily week-on-week numbers domestically to reach some sort of prediction:

DX6nWSe.png


So based on this, the current week we're looking at around 4.2M revenue, already a far cry from the 6M a week-on-week conservative estimate would yield. Notes:
  • The numbers for monday the 11th are like that because I needed to estimate based on tuesday's figures and natural drop off. There's a lot of guess work, since the previous week was heavily conditioned by a holiday that had a +- 1.7M positive effect on revenue
  • The week on week daily drop off are, as you can see, based on the the previous week's. This is not very scientific, but even replacing those values with "40%" or less doesn't change much since the baseline is already very low.
Again, once we have this week's data the picture will be much clearer. My best guess based on plugging the numbers above and course correcting my quick estimates.
  • Week 3 [current week] Domestic sales need to surpass $5.5M for the movie to reach $120M
  • Week 3 domestic sales will sit between $4.2M and 4.8M, which will place the full run for this movie between 106M and 115M
  • Week 3 should see a WoW drop-off between 52% and 59%
  • Final domestic run will sit between $40M and $47M
I compared all global… c’mon.
You were using domestic as something global.
 

Darth Vader

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I compared all global… c’mon.
You were using domestic as something global.

Look dude, go back, read what I said, and then try and engage in a conversation. I literally explained the methodology step by step.

Also, as per usual, you lack any substantial arguments and resort to dropping laughing emojis. People spend time trying to have a decent conversation and you come back with quirky one liners.

Its Impossible to take you seriously.
 
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ethomaz

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Look dude, go back, read what I said, and then try and engage in a conversation. I literally explained the methodology step by step.

Also, as per usual, you lack any substantial arguments and resort to dropping laughing emojis. People spend time trying to have a decent conversation and you come back with quirky one liners.

Its Impossible to take you seriously.
Man you listed two movies that did worst than GT as example of?
And the other with a 50/50 ratio between domestic and international?

Do you realize you are comparing Apple do Oranges?

I give you actual examples of comparison and you ignore them lol
When you start to see the data serious we can start a conversation.

BTW until ends of this week it will reach over $40 million in domestic and over $105m worldwide... I mean it will cross $120m in no time.
It is tracking similar to movies that that gross around $150-200m and the $150m is the very low end (aka a very pessimistic situation).
 
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