The Gran Turismo Movie Debuts With "A" On CinemaScore.

[Satoru]

Man you listed two movies that did worst than GT as example of?
And the other with a 50/50 ratio between domestic and international?

Do you realize you are comparing Apple do Oranges?

I give you actual examples of comparison and you ignore them lol
When you start to see the data serious we can start a conversation.

You still haven't provided neither a rebuttal to my arguments nor your own math for your estimates. I clarified how I got to the numbers I did, what methodology I used to extrapolate the global revenue from forecast domestic,.etc.

You ignored all of those because you have fuck all arguments and since you cannot admit you're wrong, you use laugh emojis and patronise others. Its a tale as old as you've been in forums, and why nobody here or in other places takes you seriously.

 

[ethomaz]

You still haven't provided neither a rebuttal to my arguments nor your own math for your estimates. I clarified how I got to the numbers I did, what methodology I used to extrapolate the global revenue from forecast domestic,.etc.

You ignored all of those because you have fuck all arguments and since you cannot admit you're wrong, you use laugh emojis and patronise others. Its a tale as old as you've been in forums, and why nobody here or in other places takes you seriously.

Man you are wrong... you can't accept it.
Using I don't know random data and trying to make a point.
Even your table estimate is off.

Sep 10 it did $1,041,082 in domestic.

 

[Satoru]

Man you are wrong... you can't accept it.
Using I don't know random data and trying to make a point.
Even your table estimate is off.

Sep 10 it did $1,041,082 in domestic.

Because you can't read. I literally said that the numbers for the weekend were estimates (and the site had them as such)

Edit - forgot to add that this weekend's data is estimated, not final.

And a 100k delta is pretty much inconsequential, I hope you actually understand that. But anyway, I have my model built and I can keep on updating numbers as they become final, and compare with my original estimates (from the 11th onwards).

For when you learn how to read:

• Week 3 [current week] Domestic sales need to surpass $5.5M for the movie to reach $120M
• Week 3 domestic sales will sit between $4.2M and 4.8M, which will place the full run for this movie between 106M and 115M
• Week 3 should see a WoW drop-off between 52% and 59%
• Final domestic run will sit between $40M and $47M

 

[Satoru]

This weekend's domestic numbers are out. Here's the box office mojo estimates vs final

• Friday - $900 000 [E] / $910 426 [R]
  Saturday - $1 530 000 [E] / $1 552 688 [R]
  Sunday $945 000 [E] / $1 041 082 [R]

This is not enough of a difference since it still puts the weekend-on-weekend difference at -47%, and puts my weekly forecast gross revenue at 4.3M, with the movie still on track to make at best 47M domestic.

 

[Satoru]

Yesterday's domestic numbers are out. Monday was the day I couldn't really predict since last week was a holiday in the US, however I wasn't too far off. It grossed $272 244 vs my asspull estimate of $240 000.

I added this to my numbers. I'm expecting tuesday to have a 50 to 60% drop off week-on-week, meaning it will land between $330 000 and $255 000.

 

[Satoru]

This week had better legs than I predicted, and but the movie will still finish below the 5M mark. I've added my estimate for the next two days based on previous days only having a drop off in the mid 30%.

Monday	$272 244
Tuesday	$444 871
Wednesday	$283 843
Thursday*	$230 070*
Friday*	$591 777*

 

[sugarbetik]

I don't think it has enough juice left for $150m break even point.

 

[ethomaz]

$102,940,027
Around 10m added this week.

Still missing several areas...
This week together with next week is when the movie is releasing in several countries too.

 

[Satoru]

I don't think it has enough juice left for $150m break even point.

It hasn't. This week was below 5M domestic, and the the ration between domestic and international has decreased, as I had predicted.

I'll update my predictions soon, but the movie will be very lucky to reach 120M.

 

[Satoru]

So, couple of things:

• Some of the revenue added to the 10M includes delayed data from at the very least France, but probably a few other countries.
• Domestic was below the magic mark of 5M, meaning that only a miracle will have this movie surpass the 120M mark. It's possible that opening in new territories will help, but with the current ones, there's little chance.

The ratio between domestic and global is pretty much switching, meaning that the biggest part of the revenue will come from the US. It currently stands at ~50/50, give or take, down from 26/74

The weekly drop off was of 53.5% domestic, above my conservative estimate of 40% and more pessimistic estimate of 50%. this puts a 12 week run at ~44.1M if we continue assuming a 40% drop off week on week domestic. My current domestic run prediction has it ending between 41.8M at 45.7M.

 

[Satoru]

This website is right quite often, so if it is right... Big oof.

GRAN TURISMO Streaming Release Date Confirmed — When To Stream

GRAN TURISMO Streaming Release Date Confirmed

www.whentostream.com

Couple this with it already being off several theaters globally, including the US... Not looking good. A shame, seems like a genuinely decent movie.

 

[Satoru]

My adjusted forecast had last week domestic at around 3.1M, and with the current "estimates" the movie was at around 3.2M. Assuming a continued drop off of around 35%, which is where it's tracking right now more or less, the domestic run will end at 45.7M at best.

Still loads of "old" data coming through, but the split was around 43% domestic to 57% international. Some predictions [all weeks start on the preceding friday:

• Current week: 2 - 2.2M domestic; 4.4 -5.1M global; 114.8 - 115.5M global
• Next week: 1.3 - 1.5M domestic; 3 - 3.5M global; 117.8 - 119M global
• Following week: 0.9M domestic; 2.5M global;

I'll revise my forecast and say that the new "target" will be around 130M, but I doubt that it will surpass that mark. There's a chance it breaks even depending on the marketing forecast, but a good rule of thumb would be at least 2.5X the movie budget, meaning it would need 150M to break even. It will not reach that amount unless china has a monster run.

 

[ethomaz]

$110,483,539.

By the next week it will be close to 120m.
International ratio is increasing as more data is added.
With the several areas still missing plus the areas released in the mid September then it will over 140m.
After that in around two weeks it will break 150m.

 

[Gamernyc78]

Gran Turismo

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Satoru]

My adjusted forecast had last week domestic at around 3.1M, and with the current "estimates" the movie was at around 3.2M. Assuming a continued drop off of around 35%, which is where it's tracking right now more or less, the domestic run will end at 45.7M at best.

I will revise this to 44M domestic, not 45.7M. It will possibly be even lower.

International ratio is increasing as more data is added.

Wrong, it decreased again. Domestic is edging closer and closer to 50% weekly. It's possible it will increase again based on new countries though. Also, funny how my math was... correct.

• Current week: 2 - 2.2M domestic; 4.4 -5.1M global; 114.8 - 115.5M global
• Next week: 1.3 - 1.5M domestic; 3 - 3.5M global; 117.8 - 119M global
• Following week: 0.9M domestic; 2.5M global;

The movie hit the low end of predictions to the T, with the ratio between global and international closing yet again. Will be interesting to see what happens this week since we should be getting china numbers at some point soon, as well as from a handful of countries. However, Domestic could be as low as 1 to 1.5M this week. I'll calculate more as the week develops.

 

[ethomaz]

$114,805,466

Everything going like I said.
The question is how much over 150 million it will end.
Still missing updated data in international areas plus several others areas are not included yet.

Wrong, it decreased again. Domestic is edging closer and closer to 50% weekly. It's possible it will increase again based on new countries though. Also, funny how my math was... correct.

Hum? 62.7% is a increase over 62.2% of last week.... ohhh and the week before it was 60.x%.
The more international data is updated the bigger the ratio become.

I'm not sure why you used the word "wrong" lol

 

[Satoru]

The question is how much over 150 million it will end.

Gran Turismo

www.boxofficemojo.com

I knew you couldn't math, but that's bad. 43.5M domestic, go check my predictions for the domestic full run. Oh wait, I'll help:

Assuming a continued drop off of around 35%, which is where it's tracking right now more or less, the domestic run will end at 45.7M at best.

The weekly drop off was of 53.5% domestic, above my conservative estimate of 40% and more pessimistic estimate of 50%. this puts a 12 week run at ~44.1M if we continue assuming a 40% drop off week on week domestic. My current domestic run prediction has it ending between 41.8M at 45.7M.

Domestic run will more than likely end below 45M, let alone 45.7M.

As for total run, you must be on acid if you think it will pull anything close to150M, let alone over 150M. Outside of China, all other big markets that opened later in September (Japan and Korea) are already faltering a lot, they are virtually inconsequential. China will not pull 30M, so you're shit out of luck.

 

[ethomaz]

Gran Turismo

www.boxofficemojo.com

I knew you couldn't math, but that's bad. 43.5M domestic, go check my predictions for the domestic full run. Oh wait, I'll help:




Domestic run will more than likely end below 45M, let alone 45.7M.

As for total run, you must be on acid if you think it will pull anything close to150M, let alone over 150M. Outside of China, all other big markets that opened later in September (Japan and Korea) are already faltering a lot, they are virtually inconsequential. China will not pull 30M, so you're shit out of luck.

The numbers already shows it will end close or over $150 million.
It is missing a lot of data yet.

It is probably around $140 million right now... but without all the data not imputed yet it hard to guess.
More data come more the ratio International to Domestic increase.

I told you that when I looked all the data.

 

[Satoru]

The numbers already shows it will end close or over $150 million.
It is missing a lot of data yet.

It is probably around $140 million right now... but without all the data not imputed yet it hard to guess.
More data come more the ratio International to Domestic increase.

I told you that when I looked all the data.

what numbers? You need to lay off the drugs. Most data, bar China, was updated in the last 7 to 10 days, when the movie had already been out in most countries for over a month.

You really can't admit to being wrong

 

[ethomaz]

what numbers? You need to lay off the drugs. Most data, bar China, was updated in the last 7 to 10 days, when the movie had already been out in most countries for over a month.

You really can't admit to being wrong

There are several areas still missing to be added depending with which others movie you compare (if Mario they had to add 40 or more areas still to Gran Turismo).
Probably more because I did not make a match to match.

For example Brazil, Australia, China, Hong-kong, India, Taiwan, etc are not added yet.

It did better domestic than I said to you... I said it will do around $42 million domestic like the last RE movie.