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peter42O
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Why do you believe that exactly? I know that they have no major exclusives this year and whatnot but aside from that, is there anything else or is that pretty much it?
What are your predictions for the rest of this generation?
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When you have to spend $80B to buy a publisher that is deep into scandals and is struggling to put out games because you spend decades mismanaging your own studios succeeding is no longer an option.
To me it makes no sense that people expect that now of all time MS will fix what they couldn't fix over all this time that they got into the gaming market.
Look at the list of games Activision published in the last 10 years. It's all CoD and that stuff that wasn't CoD are remakes and games they won't be making anymore.
Blizzard is even less salvageable then Activision, that's like trying to salvage Bioware.
Now look into Phil Spencer and his unreliably bad track record of producing good/successful games.
Oh, there's also the vast history of disastrous acquisitions in the game industry. Activision acquiring Blizzard and destroying it is already a good example of that.
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The entire generation?......i dunno.
1. I think The Activision-Blizzard aftermath (after the acquisition) is not going to be smooth at all for new projects. Power Vacum/ key people gonna left and make their own studios.
2. Game Pass/Sony Pass/Streaming have a market saturation just under 200M subscribers (worldwide/ devices -between the two companies).
3. We are going to see the most Violent/Aggressive Sony ever. PlayStation is ready to fucking murder to remain numero Uno.
1. I think The Activision-Blizzard aftermath (after the acquisition) is not going to be smooth at all for new projects. Power Vacum/ key people gonna left and make their own studios.
2. Game Pass/Sony Pass/Streaming have a market saturation just under 200M subscribers (worldwide/ devices -between the two companies).
3. We are going to see the most Violent/Aggressive Sony ever. PlayStation is ready to fucking murder to remain numero Uno.
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peter42O
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Do you know the #1 reason why Microsoft acquired ABK? It wasn't for COD, Activision or Blizzard. It was for King because getting into the mobile market is far more important to Microsoft than anything AB can or will release on Xbox.
Xbox has only been around for 21 years and was great during the Xbox 360 era. I don't understand how they've been mismanaged for decades and the vast majority of people who ran Xbox are long gone and while majority here like to think Phil was somehow the master for all 21 years, in reality he's only been the "master" since late 2017. Barely 5 years of being the guy and always having people above you doing the opposite of what should have been done for Xbox.
Can't turn around the disaster of Xbox One and going backwards for an entire generation and then think or believe that they can fix everything overnight. It took Sony the second half of the PS3 generation and Microsoft screwing up with Xbox One that allowed them to be where they are because while people want to believe whatever they want, Sony was close to going bankrupt during the PS3 generation and this has been confirmed by many people including a favorite of majority here - Colin Moriarty who's obviously a massive PlayStation fan.
But yet people manage to forget that but remember everything for the brand and console they have no interest in which I find hilarious because that would be like me talking about Nintendo despite having zero interest in them and I don't care if they survive for the next 1000 years or die tomorrow.
I'm not expecting Microsoft to fix every problem they have overnight or even throughout this generation. But do I have confidence in that Microsoft will make Xbox the best it's ever been thus far? Absolutely because you can see it. The massive investments that Microsoft has put into Xbox alone shows and proves it. For a brand that goes from almost being shut down to acquiring 7 studios, founding 1 and buying two massive AAA publishers in the same time frame of 5 years shows me massive improvement because unlike the previous generation of Xbox One, they're all in with gaming.
People just can't see that because if Microsoft doesn't do it the same way as Sony, then oh no, it's a failure when in reality, Microsoft is seeing the future and thinking ahead which you must do. You must adapt or you get left behind. Sony is changing right before every PlayStation fan's eyes. They're releasing their exclusives on PC. Why? I thought the console was enough? Wait, it actually has a ceiling of maybe 120m if you're lucky. Sony's exclusives sell 10m on average and some hit 20m but according to Jim Ryan himself, you guys aren't enough. In other words, you guys aren't getting the job done for Sony.
Then you look at Sony's direction. Holy crap!!! They're starting to pivot into a live service model for at least half of their published games. I thought single player was all they were going to do but nope. They're starting to pay publishers to get games into PS+ and even day one releases. Holy crap again. It's almost like they see something that's the future and are deciding to head towards it.
Funny thing is that I prefer a lot of the old school ways but what I prefer isn't the future. Hell, it's barely even the present. And if you want to get ahead, you have to envision the future. You have to take risks. You can't just stand pat and think everything will work out because that's just not going to happen.
Best part is that PlayStation fans here and elsewhere are the same as Xbox fans on XboxEra and elsewhere. Like, it's hilarious to me. Both sides think their shit is the best. They bash the other - (PlayStation fans crying about Microsoft buying publishers yet if it was Sony, they would be happy as hell or Xbox fans crying about Sony paying for Final Fantasy VII Remake, the 2nd/3rd game and FFXVI yet if it was Microsoft, they would be happy as hell) - despite saying they have no interest in the other platform yet bitch about it more than play the platform they supposedly love.
Microsoft doesn't need to fix and solve every issue because they're not and they won't accomplish that this generation but if they can fix and solve a few, that's already another positive step in the right direction and after last generation, they're already doing just that.
That's where I stopped reading. Not that I believe you but if that was the case then they are out of their minds.
edit: Read a little more, Phil was made the head of MS studios 14 years ago and was in charge of their European studios before that. We have an entire thread exposing what a terrible job he has done over this time.
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peter42O
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You can believe what you want but if you research it yourself, you'll see that King is far more valuable to Microsoft than Activision and Blizzard combined. The amount of money they will make off King is fucking insane and Microsoft will finally break into an area that they've been unable to do thus far - mobile gaming which makes way more money than consoles and exclusives and all this other shit. And add in Blizzard's Diablo Immortal mobile game that I believe releases in China this week. Seriously, OMG!!! They will not only break into mobile gaming but JFC, they will make an insane amount of fucking money which is at the end of the day, the entire point of running a business. It's to make massive profits because in turn, it allows you to do other things, such as acquiring publishers for example.
And by the way, six months ago, I was saying the same thing. In regards to King, I was like, who??? And then I researched it, saw videos of what they are, what they do, where their markets are and of course, how much money they make and I was like, okay, makes perfect sense for Microsoft. They will make an insane amount of money for very little cost, they will finally break into the mobile market that they've been trying to do for years and that's even without taking Activision or Blizzard into account.
You're not wrong.
King alone has made upwards of 2.6bn in revenue in the last 4 fiscal quarters. And it's only trending upwards.
MS's gaming division is going to become a revenue generating behemoth if/when the Acti/Blizz deal closes.
Eww, mobile gaming.
MS somehow reaching even lower depth of degeneration and corruption.
I always said they were trying to turn the console market into a mobile like wasteland, maybe I was right...
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peter42O
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Just because he was in charge of Microsoft Studios doesn't mean that he can do what he wanted and didn't have people above him saying yes or no. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you want to do if there's people above you telling you no, you can't do that. He was always behind several people and like the saying goes, you have to climb the ladder. Even now, he still has Amy Hood and Nadella above him. It's not like he's the final boss and can do what he wants.
Xbox One was a disaster but it wasn't his decision to be always online, to bundle Kinect for $500 and have weaker hardware. It wasn't Spencer who made deals like Scalebound or Ryse. It was Mattrick. And if shit goes bad which a lot of it did, the guy who made the decisions was long gone.
Majority here want to make it out like Phil was like the King for 15 years when he clearly wasn't.
Just because he was in charge it doesn't mean he was in charge? Come on... is he ever accountable for anything? What's with the infatuation with the guy? What has he done for you to trust him so much?
Also you don't know what was and what wasn't his decision when it comes to the Xbox One (not that it matter anyway), he was the VP of Xbox at the time and head in charge of their studios already.
The short of it is that he sucks, wearing a gaming t-shirt won't change that.
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peter42O
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I see mobile gaming as trash but then again, im not running a $2T dollar company who sees a lot of potential and profit in that market. And to be perfectly honest, despite how I see mobile gaming, im not going to lie, I would do the exact same shit if I was Microsoft because it's business.
If I was in charge of Microsoft I would fire Phil, sue him, issue a recall the Series S, apologize for the existence of Xbox and then I would become a whistleblower for all the corruption, bribery and degeneracy going on over there at MS.
If none of that was possible I would at least change the strategy and start to make some good games for a change. Why haven't they tried it yet? I don't get it. Sony does it, Nintendo does it, why can't MS do it?
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peter42O
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Being in charge of Microsoft Studios (similar to that of Booty now) doesn't mean you have the power and say to do what you want or to green light games or shutdown studios.
I hold him accountable from January 1st, 2018 to present day. The reason why is simple - because the people above him who screwed over Xbox One and in some cases, earlier were finally gone. There's no infatuation with him at all. He has negatives like everyone else but he IS the man who convinced Nadella to finally go all in with Xbox where as the other option was to shut it all down. So to actually have a plan, a roadmap, etc. and convince Nadella to keep Xbox alive says a lot.
It's not that I trust Spencer. I don't know him. I don't trust anyone I don't actually know personally. But as an Xbox gamer and fan, I believe in him that he can make Xbox better and thus far, he has. Compared to what I had on Xbox One and the clusterfuck that it was to now, is like Nintendo going from Wii U to Switch. Granted, im overdoing it here but you get the idea.
With that said, Spencer isn't perfect but since E3 2018, my opinion was and still is to give him this entire generation to prove that Xbox is worth investing into like I have. For me, Xbox Series X must end up being my #1 Xbox console surpassing Xbox 360 and at the very least, be my #2 overall console of all time only behind PS4. If Microsoft and Phil can accomplish this, I will have no reason or right to complain.
Do the delays to Starfield and more so for me, Redfall suck and are disappointing? Absolutely. But it's not like they can pull out a 90+ exclusive out of their ass for me so all I can do is them the benefit of the doubt in that they made the right call which I do believe they did because to delay both, especially Starfield then yeah, they realize that they're not ready. And while not having any AAA exclusives for all of 2022 is horrible, releasing games that have issues, could be broken or just aren't up to par would be far worse.
Let's say for argument sake that Microsoft's games hit in 2023. Hell, even if half of what they release hit, is anyone really going to care about an empty 2022? I'm not. I will be too busy playing games.
Let's say for argument sake that Microsoft's games hit in 2023. Hell, even if half of what they release hit, is anyone really going to care about an empty 2022? I'm not. I will be too busy playing games.
Gamers are fickle creatures, they'll forget about the empty periods as soon as they get their hands on the big new shiny one.
It's not like they have a great line up of games for 2023 either. All it takes is for Starfield to live up to the quality of the trailer they have shown and they'll have a terrible year again, like most years when it comes to Xbox.
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peter42O
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Wow. That's going extreme. lol
I seriously doubt that Phil and others are thinking, yeah, let's make bad games. lol. Outside of the studios that were under Microsoft pre-E3 2018, I think it has more to do with lack of being hands on but at the same time, they were hands on last generation to the point that backfired more times than not and also, outside of 5 studios, all of them are basically new in regards to being under Microsoft. All of them are basically 4 years or younger. Doesn't matter what InXile or Obsidian did pre-Microsoft as none of that matters.
It's about what they do under Microsoft and they have a ways to go before it's all clicking and running like a well oiled machine.
Sony hasn't had massive changes for PlayStation like Microsoft has had for Xbox. Sony was basically a ladder of people and when one left, there was already someone there willing to just step right in. Look at Xbox last generation. Mattrick leaves which was great but then you have a guy like Myerson who didn't give a shit about Xbox or gaming in general. At that point, what can you do if you're Phil? All you really can do is just bide your time which is exactly what he did. Nintendo is basically the same as Sony in this regard.
Another factor is that neither Sony or Nintendo is as big as Microsoft. The bigger company you are, the harder it is to control everything.
I simply look at it like this - as an Xbox Series X owner who has this console as his primary gaming console, I can honestly say that im the most confident and happy with Xbox than I have been in over a decade. Going all the way back to Xbox 360 where after Gears 3 in 2011, they had basically nothing. The biggest difference is that with Xbox One, no one seemed to care or give a fuck. This generation, I can see it because if they didn't care, they wouldn't invest all this money into Xbox and the gaming division as a whole. Now, you may say that well, Microsoft is a $2T dollar company so would it matter if they lose money? In the grand scheme of things, no but just because you can afford to lose money doesn't mean you actually want to and the richer a company is, the more money they want to make and the less money they want to lose.
Yep. Exactly. I haven't had a Sony game since February and next one is GOWR in November. Once im playing that, im not going to care about the last 8 months. Shit will be a memory. lol
They have Redfall, Starfield, Diablo IV (even though it's multi-platform), Ghostwire Tokyo port, a few timed exclusives like Stalker 2 and that's just for the first half of 2023. And even if Starfield was horrible, 2023 would still be far better than 2022 because most games will be good and hit. Tokyo we already know. Good but not great. Stalker 2 I believe will be amazing and I still think Microsoft should have acquired GSC and make that game fully exclusive but that's just me. Arkane is so underrated and im expecting Redfall to be an 80+ easily. It's definitely my type of game so im looking forward to it. And of course, Diablo IV which granted, again is multi-platform but im expecting 90+.
One other reason why im willing to give Microsoft/Spencer the benefit of the doubt is because of last generation with PS4 for me. PS4 was my primary gaming console and between the 2013 launch, 2014 and 2015, all I had was Knack (6.5/10), Infamous First Light (7/10), The Order 1886 (7/10 and the only game of the four im listing that I actually enjoyed and would like to see come back) and Until Dawn (7/10). I literally had borderline good at best games and outside of the visuals in The Order 1886, nothing amazing. I know you'll probably say Bloodborne but remember, im going based on for me personally and im not a souls guy so Bloodborne means nothing to me. And yes, I did play it. 10 hours give or take and just nah, not for me.
2016 gave me Ratchet (8.5/10), Alienation (8.5/10), Uncharted 4 (8.5/10 but was disappointed) and Shadow of the Beast (6.5/10). 2016 is the equivilent of what 2023 will be so I will see if Microsoft hits for me next year like Sony did for the most part in 2016. It wasn't until 2017 where Sony was awesome for me. HZD (9.5/10, my 2017 goty and my #4 best game of the gen), Nex Machina (8.5/10), Matterfall (7/10), Knack 2 (7.5/10) and Uncharted The Lost Legacy (9.5/10 and my best/favorite Uncharted game). 2017 would be 2024 if we're matching up the years.
So that's why im much more relaxed and lenient than others may be. After all, I switched from Microsoft (with Xbox 360) to Sony (with PS4) for what would be my primary gaming console and since I gave Sony years to win me over, I have to do the same for Microsoft and Xbox this generation because otherwise, it simply wouldn't be fair.
Now if 2023 is a repeat of 2022, I will be the first to say so but as of now, all I can do is be confident in that it won't be.
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Xbox has no chance of having the better 2023 for me with Spider-man 2, FF16 and Granblue Fantasy Relink being three of my most anticipated games
I think the winner of the generation will be Sony again. After starting with some supply issues due to the chips shortages, once they solve these shortages wil go back to sell at gaming history records, faster than any console before. First they will catch up PS4, PS2 & Switch launch aligned and once it's all said and done, several years after the release of PS6, will end outselling LTD PS4, Switch and maybe even PS2.
I think PSVR2 will be great, and will sell way better than PSVR1, getting many AAA games and fixing most of the issues of PSVR1 but not all: still will cause dizziness and nausea to some people and its price will be too expensive to become mainstream, but this generation will start getting good support from main devs and getting the attention of the people. PSVR3 for the next gen will be the one that will become mainstream, with a way wider support, a more affordable pricing and being wireless.
PS Plus will continue being the most popular game subscription with around 100M subs. It will have improved the emulation efforts and catalog both from classic platforms and PS4/PS5 games. This generation its cloud gaming will expand -as Sony mentioned when announced their cloud gaming long term vision in 2013- to smartphones, tablets and tvs. There will be day one indies but no day one Sony games: they'll continue to be added between a year and a half and around 3 years after launch depending on sales of the game. Sony will release their PSN store both in PC and mobile. As in PS, it will feature their games for that platform (mobile or PC), emulated PS1/PS2/PSP/Vita tv games and 3rd party games, mostly indies.
One of the multiple new IPs that Bungie will release this gen will become "the next Fortnite" in terms of success. Sony will acquire Square Enix, Firewalk, Arrowhead, From Soft, Emberlabs, Capcom, BlueTwelve, Devotion, Camouflaj, Devolver, Annapurna, Dotemu a Japanese studio with former Japan Studio devs, and a Polish studio with former CD Project and Techland devs during this generation.
Switch will end selling less than PS5 but more than PS4. The upcoming Pokemon, BotW2, MK9 and a new Mario will be their main hits for its remaining years. As next gen only will become more common, will stop getting support from AAA devs as native games, their support will move more to via cloud gaming. It will still get a strong indie support but it will slowly be replaced by Steamdeck as the portable indie machine. In 2024/2025 will be abruptly replaced by the Switch 2, fully BC, with crossgen MK9 and new 3D Mario as launch games. The hardware of Switch 2 will be basically the one we saw for the rumored Switch Pro, but Switch 2 will feature exclusive games that don't run on a normal Switch.
Xbox will end the generation being outsold LTD by PS4, PS5, Switch and 360. GP will have between 50 and 75M subs. During this gen MS will buy EA, Take 2, Riot, CD Project, Roblox and whoever is the biggest NFT company. Will end this gen without still not being able to create a blockbuster new IP from scratch in-house, their top new IP this gen will be Starfield, (followed by another new IP originally also created before being acquired at Blizzar) which will perform good but not as well as many expected (we'll know its amount of players but not units sold).
Apple will join the console market, featuring iOS games that now will also feature "normal" AAA games. These games will be playable on high end phones, tablets, Mac or the new hybrid console they'll release which basically will be a high end Switch with the horsepower between a Series S and a PS5. As in mobile, they'll get support from most 3rd parties. It will be so fucking expensive and will sell a lot.
Steamdeck will slowly get marketshare, with the main weapon of having almost the full catalog of the PC plus all the emulators and streaming platforms. At first won't sell much due to Valve's manufactutring limitations and a price too high for the mainstream. But a SteamDeck 2, with a more reasonable pricing and the horsepower of a PS5 and released around 2025 will start selling a lot.
I think PSVR2 will be great, and will sell way better than PSVR1, getting many AAA games and fixing most of the issues of PSVR1 but not all: still will cause dizziness and nausea to some people and its price will be too expensive to become mainstream, but this generation will start getting good support from main devs and getting the attention of the people. PSVR3 for the next gen will be the one that will become mainstream, with a way wider support, a more affordable pricing and being wireless.
PS Plus will continue being the most popular game subscription with around 100M subs. It will have improved the emulation efforts and catalog both from classic platforms and PS4/PS5 games. This generation its cloud gaming will expand -as Sony mentioned when announced their cloud gaming long term vision in 2013- to smartphones, tablets and tvs. There will be day one indies but no day one Sony games: they'll continue to be added between a year and a half and around 3 years after launch depending on sales of the game. Sony will release their PSN store both in PC and mobile. As in PS, it will feature their games for that platform (mobile or PC), emulated PS1/PS2/PSP/Vita tv games and 3rd party games, mostly indies.
One of the multiple new IPs that Bungie will release this gen will become "the next Fortnite" in terms of success. Sony will acquire Square Enix, Firewalk, Arrowhead, From Soft, Emberlabs, Capcom, BlueTwelve, Devotion, Camouflaj, Devolver, Annapurna, Dotemu a Japanese studio with former Japan Studio devs, and a Polish studio with former CD Project and Techland devs during this generation.
Switch will end selling less than PS5 but more than PS4. The upcoming Pokemon, BotW2, MK9 and a new Mario will be their main hits for its remaining years. As next gen only will become more common, will stop getting support from AAA devs as native games, their support will move more to via cloud gaming. It will still get a strong indie support but it will slowly be replaced by Steamdeck as the portable indie machine. In 2024/2025 will be abruptly replaced by the Switch 2, fully BC, with crossgen MK9 and new 3D Mario as launch games. The hardware of Switch 2 will be basically the one we saw for the rumored Switch Pro, but Switch 2 will feature exclusive games that don't run on a normal Switch.
Xbox will end the generation being outsold LTD by PS4, PS5, Switch and 360. GP will have between 50 and 75M subs. During this gen MS will buy EA, Take 2, Riot, CD Project, Roblox and whoever is the biggest NFT company. Will end this gen without still not being able to create a blockbuster new IP from scratch in-house, their top new IP this gen will be Starfield, (followed by another new IP originally also created before being acquired at Blizzar) which will perform good but not as well as many expected (we'll know its amount of players but not units sold).
Apple will join the console market, featuring iOS games that now will also feature "normal" AAA games. These games will be playable on high end phones, tablets, Mac or the new hybrid console they'll release which basically will be a high end Switch with the horsepower between a Series S and a PS5. As in mobile, they'll get support from most 3rd parties. It will be so fucking expensive and will sell a lot.
Steamdeck will slowly get marketshare, with the main weapon of having almost the full catalog of the PC plus all the emulators and streaming platforms. At first won't sell much due to Valve's manufactutring limitations and a price too high for the mainstream. But a SteamDeck 2, with a more reasonable pricing and the horsepower of a PS5 and released around 2025 will start selling a lot.
Ps5 will outsell xbox,but not to the extent like it did last generation.
The next Nintendo switch will sell well, but not as well as the original.
Amazon will abandon its flirtation with gaming.
Google will kill off what's left of stadia.
Apple won't get further involved in gaming beyond than it already is.
Feel free to use these predictions against me in the future when they are proven wrong.
The next Nintendo switch will sell well, but not as well as the original.
Amazon will abandon its flirtation with gaming.
Google will kill off what's left of stadia.
Apple won't get further involved in gaming beyond than it already is.
Feel free to use these predictions against me in the future when they are proven wrong.
Sony cannot be stopped!
2023 will not be a huge year for PS5 but enough to keep selling out even when these chip shortages ease (Hopefully the chip shortages ease)
I think PSVR 2 and it's new games will get a good amount of interest
Even if Final Fantasy XVI and Spider-Man 2 get delayed out of 2023 Sony will have some new IP and some surprises to Keep PS5 owners Happy
but 2024 are when I expect Sony to flex their first party muscle the hardest
Anyway my prediction on hardware sales as of November 2027 (When I guess the PS6 will come out.) is PS5 will have sold 130 Million by that point
2025 I expect Skeet-Tendo's Next system to do poorly due to how they fumbled Gamecube in 2005, Wii U in 2015 and the cycle will repeat!
and I expect Phil Spencer to retire as head of Xbox around 2026/2027 and them pivot more of being out of the hardware business and work on growing gamepass
2023 will not be a huge year for PS5 but enough to keep selling out even when these chip shortages ease (Hopefully the chip shortages ease)
I think PSVR 2 and it's new games will get a good amount of interest
Even if Final Fantasy XVI and Spider-Man 2 get delayed out of 2023 Sony will have some new IP and some surprises to Keep PS5 owners Happy
but 2024 are when I expect Sony to flex their first party muscle the hardest
Anyway my prediction on hardware sales as of November 2027 (When I guess the PS6 will come out.) is PS5 will have sold 130 Million by that point
2025 I expect Skeet-Tendo's Next system to do poorly due to how they fumbled Gamecube in 2005, Wii U in 2015 and the cycle will repeat!
and I expect Phil Spencer to retire as head of Xbox around 2026/2027 and them pivot more of being out of the hardware business and work on growing gamepass
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