You're assuming a steady rate of decline. NEXT.
The drop is going to be precipitous and unsalvageable.
Xbox fanatics social media meltdowns in regards to 3rd party move and other losses |OT| "When fiction meets reality.
- Thread starter Gamernyc78
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The drop is going to be precipitous and unsalvageable.
1) there is no LTD of 35M in 2024
2) hilarious you think the falloff in sales is going to be a slow decline instead of an immediate dropoff when they announce their new handheld in 2026.
Lmao dude really thinks they're going to sell 8m+ this year when they couldn't get to that with a higher Q1 last year. Xbox is at 26m tops btw.
You'd need to show what numbers you're working with to make 40M hard by 2028. I've already said that if next gen is 2026, XBS isn't hitting 50M. 2028, it will.
Nothing so far to suggest a decline of 2M or greater per year right now, or that there won't be a year where sales decline slows for any number of reasons. Average assumption would be a steady decline.
If all the Xbox handheld does is steal sales from the console, Xbox hardware might get shut down. The aim with that would be a completely different audience, not to split 50M devices.
You already know these figures are way off…why do you do this to yourself….
Just realized he predicted 800k q1 when the US was below 250k units....
Pack it in bros welfare is gone full delulu
Pack it in bros welfare is gone full delulu
I think your 2024 XBS numbers are too optimistic. Last year and years prior didn't have Microsoft pushing more of their once console-exclusive 1P titles to PlayStation and Nintendo systems, as an example. Previous years also saw certain factors like new console launches, really big 3P releases, and larger economic events (lockdowns) play into giving Xbox some of the quarterly boosts it saw.
AFAIK, the biggest 3P release this year is that Ubisoft Star Wars game, which is shrouded in controversy with pricing and locked single-player content behind a paywall. There may be that new discless Series X refresh but I don't see that being a massive driver for new hardware sales. They could get a boost with price cuts but price cuts were also in effect around holiday season last year and that didn't help tremendously. There thankfully doesn't look to be any situation like another economic lockdown coming, so no artificial boost for Series S or Game Pass there.
You're also underestimating the drop in shipments going forward because, again, 2020-2023 are when Microsoft were trying to compete as a platform holder console-wise, but they are scaling back on that now. And certain things they've began doing this year, were never a factor in those years prior. I'd expect XBS to more follow OG Xbox's sales curve, and that system had a ~ 35% YOY drop from its 3rd full calendar year to its 4th.
If XBS sold ~ 7.2 million units last year (yes this is sold-through; 8 million would be shipped), a 35% drop would put it at a little below 5 million for this year. The typical signifiers for periodic bumps in demand that existed in the past have been vanishing for Xbox consoles, so you can't count on past shipment data to say what the trend will be going forward from this year in particular. If there is anything that might help XBS to cross 5 million and get closer to 6 million for the year, it'd be the lack of a new Xbox console generational launch.
That said, I think both the PS5 Pro and especially Switch 2, will eat into a lot of what XBS could have sold this year otherwise, and that's why I'm comfortable with saying they will struggle to do 5 million sold-through for the entirety of 2024.
None of my Xbox figures are off
US Q1 2024 was over 600K. All the numbers I've been using this thread were shipments.
XBS is not shipping below 6M this year. Like I said, it would require such a massive crash in the holiday quarter that Xbox might as well fast track next gen to 2026. It'll ship somewhere between 2.5M and 3M the first 3 quarters this year and then >3M in Q4.
Sell through will also be >5M unless US sales for whatever reason do less than 3M this year.
Source for shipment #s?None of my Xbox figures are off
US Q1 2024 was over 600K. All the numbers I've been using this thread were shipments.
XBS is not shipping below 6M this year. Like I said, it would require such a massive crash in the holiday quarter that Xbox might as well fast track next gen to 2026. It'll ship somewhere between 2.5M and 3M the first 3 quarters this year and then >3M in Q4.
Sell through will also be >5M unless US sales for whatever reason do less than 3M this year.
I think you are overestimating global XS sales for 2023 because there is nice data for the whole PAL territory in 2023 where PS5 outsold XS more than 3 :1 and NA territory almost 2 : 1
Circana 2023
PS5: 6,710,000 (+19%)
XBS: 3,780,000 (-16%)
If XS reached a 7 mil. for 2023 globally, that's max.
PS5 globally for 2023 was +21 million. It must be more than 2:1 over XS LTD.
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For some reason he thinks hardware shipments are completely divorced from sell-in like retailers are just going to accept millions of unsold units to sit in warehouses and on shelves lmao
The dude just loves Xbox. It's a bit sad. With European retailers dropping it, the USA and UK won't be far behind.
For reference this is mine and Ampere's sell-trhough estimates. Add ~1M for shipment
Ampere shipment EoY 2023 ~ 28M
My shipment EoY 2023 ~ 26M
| XBS Sell in | Ampere | Own |
| 2020 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 2021 | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 9 | 8 |
| 2023 | 7.6 | 6.5 |
| 2024 estimate | 5.5 |
I estimate XBS will have a LTD in 2028 of 45M following a normal sales drop off. If the bottom falls out due to one of many reasons then expect lower.
That's exactly why people make fun of you.
After years of outright lying to you, you're still ready to suck him off. Not even the hardcore Nintendo fans are that delusional. These people don't care about gaming but care about a fake personality created by an executive to sell them hopes and still turn on them.
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"
PhantomRPG
4h
Am gonna vet.
If they so much as put everything over to playstation and say fuck you to its current console userbase then am done with the brand itself.
Its absolute disrespectfull of Phil and higher ups to use data to follow trends that will not occur in a long ass while, instead of actual sympathy for its userbase that has been with them on very hard times.
I wish for the console to be desirable, i want to have flagship experiences that are exclusive to users of its system, not anywhere else.
Is it so much to ask for this?!
Am i just waste because my investment is going to The garbage in order to suck off playstation and nintendo money while leaving me, a consumer, out to dry and die?
Xbox is dead if they continue this train of thought. Goodbye hardware, goodbye game pass, goodbye id xbox. Because its brand, in genral, will be gone once Halo, Gears, Forza and Fable are ported over.
If folks see me as dramatic, how about understanding a console user who only has one fucking console and can’t afford another one for crying out loud.
Is this fair treatment?!
How about the fact of a duopoly of overpriced games from Sony and Nintendo will happen because of this, thats a fun future for everyone right?!
Competition is no good, right?!
Then someone tell me how much is this going to harm Xbox for in the long wrong? Because it will and i will enjoy seeing Phil be miserable because of his takes. That dude deserves every bit of judgement from actual fans of the hardware."