YTD: PS5 14.5 m; NSW 9.91 m; X/S ~ 4.15 m

[Cool hand luke]

The Brazil numbers are official. Ampere had estimated XBS at 21.3M back in March.

My numbers are shipped.

Xbox has sold ~1.25M in the US in the 6 months after March 2023. Ampere estimated Xbox sold 1.8M in Q1 2023 (19.5M as of December 2022). US sales were ~720K, or 40% of worldwide that quarter.

Assuming US was 50% for April to September, that would mean 2.5M Xbox's have been sold. 21.3M + 2.5M = 23.8M

My shipment LTD for XBS is 25.8M, or just 2M unsold units, which is average right before the holidays.


Nah I've been about spot on for most of the XBS life.

FTC leak: Xbox Series had a 37% market share in FY 2021 Q1-3 (4.6M) and a 46% market share from FY 2022 Q1- 3 (7.8M)

PS5 had a 63% market share in Microsoft's FY2021 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2020 Quarter 4: 4,500,000 PS5 Calendar Year 2021 Quarter 1: 3,300,000 Total: 7,800,000 7,800,000 / 0.63 = 12,380,000 Xbox Series = ~4,600,000 PS5 had a 54% market share in Microsoft's FY2022 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2021...

www.installbaseforum.com

We have the total of 5 of the first 6 quarters for XBS and my estimates were near spot on for those.

4.6M actual shipments in first two quarters.
My estimates were 3.1M + 1.5M = 4.6M, so spot on.

And then 7.8M actual shipments for quarters 4+5+6.
My estimates for those quarters were 7.9M, so I was only 100K higher than actual.

There's then the LTD shipments I had at the end of 2022 which was proven to be more accurate after Ampere adjusted XBS sell through up by 1M.

My numbers aren't going to be off by an egregious amount.


I think it was at the start of the year we decided to create a theme for each platform's big exclusive that we thought would launch this year. Zelda, Starfield, and Spider-Man.


Series X shortages ended in the US back in June. You guys are still harping on that like I'm saying it's still sold out.

Welfare debunked by Heisenberg in one easy post.

According to the most recent data, XBS has sold:

• 11.8 million in the US
• 2+ million in the UK.

That's like 14 million in total.

UK and US historically constitute roughly 75% to 80% of Xbox's total sales. Even 21-22 million total sales brings down that percentage down to just 67%.

If we go by Welfare's numbers of 25-26 million WW sales, we're essentially saying that Xbox's market share, outside of UK and US, has increased significantly this generation, as that would put US and UK's shares at roughly 55%.

That's just pure fantasy.

We know Xbox is less popular on the continent, not more, so the only thing to question is what that 21 million number was - certainly not sold through. Maybe manufactured units? Not even shipments.

 

[KiryuRealty]

Welfare debunked by Heisenberg in one easy post.


We know Xbox is less popular on the continent, not more, so the only thing to question is what that 21 million number was - certainly not sold through. Maybe manufactured units? Not even shipments.

MS has only ever reported sell-in numbers, units shipped to retailers.

I can attest from my experience of working in a video store where we had trouble finding space to store all the unsold 360s we were shipped because the corporate warehouse had no room for them, MS does not give a flying fuck if consumers are buying an item as long as they can keep stuffing the channel.

 

[Evilms]

25~26 million is an overestimate for the Xbox Series.

22~23 million is more realistic, given what we know so far.

 

[anonpuffs]

Welfare debunked by Heisenberg in one easy post.


We know Xbox is less popular on the continent, not more, so the only thing to question is what that 21 million number was - certainly not sold through. Maybe manufactured units? Not even shipments.

Maybe it was the 2k a week in Japan?
/s

 

[anonpuffs]

25~26 million is an overestimate for the Xbox Series.

22~23 million is more realistic, given what we know so far.

That makes sense, but to be fair to Welfare his numbers are shipped. It would make total sense that there are significantly less sold-through Xbox than are in the channel as we all know the demand for the product is virtually nonexistent, contrary to the protests of Welfare. If xbox has 3 million unsold units in warehouses and store shelves that would put them at ~18m sold through last year when the 21m figure surfaced. It's hard to imagine how much of a disaster that is lol

 

[KiryuRealty]

That makes sense, but to be fair to Welfare his numbers are shipped. It would make total sense that there are significantly less sold-through Xbox than are in the channel as we all know the demand for the product is virtually nonexistent, contrary to the protests of Welfare. If xbox has 3 million unsold units in warehouses and store shelves that would put them at ~18m sold through last year when the 21m figure surfaced. It's hard to imagine how much of a disaster that is lol

There's no need to be "fair" to Welfare. He ADMITS his numbers have no basis in hard fact. He pulls it all out of his ass.

 

[ethomaz]

The Brazil numbers are official. Ampere had estimated XBS at 21.3M back in March.

My numbers are shipped.

Xbox has sold ~1.25M in the US in the 6 months after March 2023. Ampere estimated Xbox sold 1.8M in Q1 2023 (19.5M as of December 2022). US sales were ~720K, or 40% of worldwide that quarter.

Assuming US was 50% for April to September, that would mean 2.5M Xbox's have been sold. 21.3M + 2.5M = 23.8M

My shipment LTD for XBS is 25.8M, or just 2M unsold units, which is average right before the holidays.


Nah I've been about spot on for most of the XBS life.

FTC leak: Xbox Series had a 37% market share in FY 2021 Q1-3 (4.6M) and a 46% market share from FY 2022 Q1- 3 (7.8M)

PS5 had a 63% market share in Microsoft's FY2021 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2020 Quarter 4: 4,500,000 PS5 Calendar Year 2021 Quarter 1: 3,300,000 Total: 7,800,000 7,800,000 / 0.63 = 12,380,000 Xbox Series = ~4,600,000 PS5 had a 54% market share in Microsoft's FY2022 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2021...

www.installbaseforum.com

We have the total of 5 of the first 6 quarters for XBS and my estimates were near spot on for those.

4.6M actual shipments in first two quarters.
My estimates were 3.1M + 1.5M = 4.6M, so spot on.

And then 7.8M actual shipments for quarters 4+5+6.
My estimates for those quarters were 7.9M, so I was only 100K higher than actual.

There's then the LTD shipments I had at the end of 2022 which was proven to be more accurate after Ampere adjusted XBS sell through up by 1M.

My numbers aren't going to be off by an egregious amount.


I think it was at the start of the year we decided to create a theme for each platform's big exclusive that we thought would launch this year. Zelda, Starfield, and Spider-Man.


Series X shortages ended in the US back in June. You guys are still harping on that like I'm saying it's still sold out.

So turned out your numbers were overestimated again...
I'm not even sure why you tried to reply to my post.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

The amount of cope trying to spin profitable into meaning revenue is out of this world.

Whole lot of assumptions for no reason other than "Xbox must be in the red". Even when Xbox was doing well enough to "take share" from PS5 and lead in different nations, Microsoft refused to reveal numbers. Even when MAU was doing fine, they hid those too. Microsoft hiding numbers is not evidence of hiding losses.

What markets outside of US, UK and Brazil were Microsoft ever 'taking share' from PlayStation and refused to report the numbers? Because the only time that was happening was the 360 generation, when they still reported sales numbers.

Also claiming Game Pass is "profitable" comes with a lot of caveats. If it's earning them even a single dollar after net expenses are accounted for, that is technically "profitable". Doesn't mean it's a preferred profitability level, but sure, it's "profitable". The rate of profit must not have been good enough though because Microsoft have shifted heavily back into B2P sales model, including early launch access for those who buy the Premium edition of their games.

You have to ask yourself, if the Game Pass profits were so good, why would they need to start re-prioritizing a sales model that Game Pass was designed in ways to replace? And yes that is "replace", not "complement"; the original purpose of Game Pass was to shift consumer habits away from B2P and towards subscription. It currently serves as a co-existing, "complementary" model (though not particularly great one) because it failed in its original task, plain and simple.

 

[DForce]

The amount of cope trying to spin profitable into meaning revenue is out of this world.

Whole lot of assumptions for no reason other than "Xbox must be in the red". Even when Xbox was doing well enough to "take share" from PS5 and lead in different nations, Microsoft refused to reveal numbers. Even when MAU was doing fine, they hid those too. Microsoft hiding numbers is not evidence of hiding losses.

Gotta laugh at the "don't sell games" part. You know nothing about Xbox.

Also Phil already corrected the FTC about what acquiring an asset means but here you go.



Phil literally described people like you in that quote and you're still getting stuck on how Game Pass makes money.

Xbox is generating more revenue in the Game Pass era than ever, and Game Pass is profitable. Software still sells on Xbox and Steam, along with third party games and MTX. How do you think Xbox Content and Services (software and subscriptions) keeps generating more revenue every year? If software were really going down by a substantial amount and Game Pass is only 10%-20% of C&S, they wouldn't be generating +$3B a quarter.


Starfield brought in the biggest increase of Game Pass subs in a single day.

And Xbox revenue generated last quarter was higher than expected, with Starfield being directly mentioned as being part of that happening.

The narratives aren't working in the face of results.

This is a perfect example of why people call Phil Spencer a Snake Oil Salesman, along with other reps at Microsoft.

"Starfield brought in the biggest increase of Game Pass Subs in a single day."


The biggest increase compared to what? By how much? These things matter. It's also very important to note that their biggest games prior were Gears 5, Forza Horizon 5, and Halo Infinite (single-player campaign). So generating the biggest increase isn't surprising, and we still don't know by how much.

We know Microsoft and Xbox love to toute the "biggest launch ever" when most of it was meaningless in the end - just like how Halo Infinite was the "biggest launch in the series history."


The way Starfield dropped like a rock after the first month's sales, do you think they generated enough Game Pass subscribers to recoup the development cost of the game? For the game to be successful, it needs to recoup its cost and generate enough subscribers beyond the first month. This is why people want to know how the service is doing because for years people have been telling everyone this is the future and signs are pointing to the complete opposite.

Is Game Pass profitable? By how much? We want to know how much profit is it generating because they're not disclosing numbers.

People have been on a gaming forum long enough to know what makes a game and service successful. We know when a game drops like a rock after the first few weeks comes off as concerning, but this is completely ignored when it comes to most Xbox games because the excuse is, "well, it's on Game Pass."


Let's say Sony started releasing their big exclusives day one on PS+

They started at 46m PS+ subscribers in September.
In October, they released Spider-Man 2 day one on PS+ and it increased the subscriber count to 48m. Sony announced that this was the biggest increase to PS+ ever.
However, by December, the subscriber count fell back down to 46m.

They generated a lot of revenue from subscriptions during that period, but they sacrificed retail sales to have short term benefits for PS+. Do you think they expected Starfield to drop this fast after the first month in sales?

Do you see why we don't buy anything Phil says are face value?

 

[KiryuRealty]

This is a perfect example of why people call Phil Spencer a Snake Oil Salesman, along with other reps at Microsoft.

"Starfield brought in the biggest increase of Game Pass Subs in a single day."


The biggest increase compared to what? By how much? These things matter. It's also very important to note that their biggest games prior were Gears 5, Forza Horizon 5, and Halo Infinite (single-player campaign). So generating the biggest increase isn't surprising, and we still don't know by how much.

We know Microsoft and Xbox love to toute the "biggest launch ever" when most of it was meaningless in the end - just like how Halo Infinite was the "biggest launch in the series history."


The way Starfield dropped like a rock after the first month's sales, do you think they generated enough Game Pass subscribers to recoup the development cost of the game? For the game to be successful, it needs to recoup its cost and generate enough subscribers beyond the first month. This is why people want to know how the service is doing because for years people have been telling everyone this is the future and signs are pointing to the complete opposite.

Is Game Pass profitable? By how much? We want to know how much profit is it generating because they're not disclosing numbers.

People have been on a gaming forum long enough to know what makes a game and service successful. We know when a game drops like a rock after the first few weeks comes off as concerning, but this is completely ignored when it comes to most Xbox games because the excuse is, "well, it's on Game Pass."


Let's say Sony started releasing their big exclusives day one on PS+

They started at 46m PS+ subscribers in September.
In October, they released Spider-Man 2 day one on PS+ and it increased the subscriber count to 48m. Sony announced that this was the biggest increase to PS+ ever.
However, by December, the subscriber count fell back down to 46m.

They generated a lot of revenue from subscriptions during that period, but they sacrificed retail sales to have short term benefits for PS+. Do you think they expected Starfield to drop this fast after the first month in sales?

Do you see why we don't buy anything Phil says are face value?

Welfare is a fantard, he won’t ever admit he’s way off base with his bullshit numbers.

 

[Cool hand luke]

Welfare is a fantard, he won’t ever admit he’s way off base with his bullshit numbers.

And that's what they are. Absolute bullshit. He's been antagonised for it online and has dug his heels in. It's shameful for someone purporting to be about the numbers.

 

[KiryuRealty]

And that's what they are. Absolute bullshit. He's been antagonised for it online and has dug his heels in. It's shameful for someone purporting to be about the numbers.

The worst is he takes any and all examination of his "methodology" as antagonism and is a total asshole when anyone asks him how he arrives at his lies.

 

[Darth Vader]

The worst is he takes any and all examination of his "methodology" as antagonism and is a total asshole when anyone asks him how he arrives at his lies.

He uses his feelings and intuition. You know, like Nobel prize winners. Data? Nah mate, feelings.

 

[Jim Ryan]

Just an update on how the winter is shaping up.

 

[FatKaz]

Just an update on how the winter is shaping up.

Too many cod bundle imo.

They may have some marketing agreement to push cod bundles, but seems excessive at times.

Heck last year they had MW2 bundles still lingering months after release.

 

[JAHGamer]

Too many cod bundle imo.

They may have some marketing agreement to push cod bundles, but seems excessive at times.

Heck last year they had MW2 bundles still lingering months after release.

Maybe they don’t want to lose out on full Spider-Man sales. It’s better to take a loss/break even on a game you’ll get microtransaction money from.

 

[Shmunter]

Ironic using COD to get gamers into a PS5 instead of an Xbox . Phil logic.

 

[KiryuRealty]

Ironic using COD to get gamers into a PS5 instead of an Xbox . Phil logic.

Phil had fuck all to do with the decision. Deals like bundles are set more than a year ahead.

 

[Plextorage]

Ironic using COD to get gamers into a PS5 instead of an Xbox . Phil logic.

Phil had fuck all to do with the decision. Deals like bundles are set more than a year ahead.

I dunno if Shmunter is trying to be smart or some sort of smart crap, but it is well known that Sony has a, regarding COD, a marketing contract with Activision till end of 2024.

Call of Duty exclusive benefits on PlayStation will reportedly end after Microsoft finalizes Activision deal

Call of Duty exclusive benefits on PlayStation will soon become a thing of the past, as Microsoft finalizes its Activision purchasing deal.

mspoweruser.com

According to information from various sources, the Sony document states that CoD 2023 will be the final game covered by the contract. Activision, on the other hand, claims that the deal extends until the end of 2024.

Sony says Microsoft’s Call of Duty offer was “inadequate on many levels”

Sony says Microsoft only offered three years extra.

www.theverge.com

Ryan’s statement makes it clear that “several more years” is actually three years after Sony’s Call of Duty marketing deal ends. Bloomberg originally reported earlier this year that Microsoft was committed to releasing Call of Duty on PlayStation “for at least the next two years,” suggesting that Sony’s marketing deal for the franchise could expire in 2024.

 

[anonpuffs]

I dunno if Shmunter is trying to be smart or some sort of smart crap, but it is well known that Sony has a, regarding COD, a marketing contract with Activision till end of 2024.

Call of Duty exclusive benefits on PlayStation will reportedly end after Microsoft finalizes Activision deal

Call of Duty exclusive benefits on PlayStation will soon become a thing of the past, as Microsoft finalizes its Activision purchasing deal.

mspoweruser.com

Sony says Microsoft’s Call of Duty offer was “inadequate on many levels”

Sony says Microsoft only offered three years extra.

www.theverge.com

could be FY2024 (ends at the end of June 2024, so 2024's CoD wouldn't be covered)