- A couple years ago Bungie had planned to release AT LEAST one (meaning they will have more or less 2 or more for around that period) new IP BEFORE 2025 (add maybe a year or two of potential delay for both Marathon and other(s) non-Destiny game).
- Matter and Marathon have different trademarks recently filled/updated. The Matter trademark goes back to 2018. 2018 to 2024, maybe 2025 are 6-7 years, enough to make a AAA game.
- Matter logo artstyle matches with the other upcoming game they shown with concept art on their website and in the job offer describing (at least one of) their under development that isn't marathon.
- Many games in the Nvidia list were proper leaks or good guesses, but many other ones from the Nvidia list never have been released -or even announced- for PC like Scalebound, Gran Turismo 7, Ghost of Tsushima, Demon's Souls, Déraciné, Bayonetta 3, Final Fantasy 9 Remake, Titanfall 3, Bioshock 2022, XCOM 3, Injustice 3, Gears 6, Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled, Monster Hunter 2nd G, Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers, Mario x Rabbids and a long etc. Some of them, like Scalebound, GT7 or XCOM3 were even publicly debunked to be in the works by their developers.
We don't have a release date or year for Marathon, so we have no idea when it's going to be released. But a couple years ago Bungie said that they planned to release before 2025 (meaning, maximum 2024) at least one new IP in addition to Destiny.
They are apparently working on multiple games, but they only shown a bit of Marathon, so I assume it's the first game they plan to release. In recent years Sony also rarely announces games planned to be released 2+ years in the future since the announcement.
So I think it makes sense to expect a 2024 release for Marathon. But in game development delays are very common, so it wouldn't be rare if they had it originally planned for 2024 and gets delayed to 2025 for further polishing before release.
When they said that planned "at least one" implies that they have at least 2 games in the works and that they were pretty confident -2 years ago- to have one of them released in 2024 (let's say Marathon) and another one, or maybe two, (as could be Matter, trademarked in 2018 and recently updated) that weren't so sure when were going to be released, but they saw possible to be released around 2024-2025.
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