Yeah this was the post I called out. You're clueless.
The Forza bundle was never touching the PS5, ever. The past two months have had it outside of or just nearly in the top 100 on Amazon. The moment the $499 X comes in, it significantly outperforms the bundle and shoots up to where the PS5 is.
I don't know how to tell you this without just repeating everything I said in the last post, but the bundle is, your gonna want to clean your eyes for this one, not desirable.
The Series S likewise is not desirable.
You know what is? The $499 Series X. The demand for those two other products have no fucking bearing on the $499 X OTHERWISE it would perform the exact same as those two. Flops.
You're just ignoring reality. #20-30 is not "marginally better" than #100 on a top sellers list.
What is the difference in units between #100 and #20-30 on the Amazon top sellers list? Cite your sources.
You really would do better, in life, not just in this argument, if you swallowed your pride and educated yourself about basic demand and supply concepts like these.
It's really simple. At a $550 price point there is weak demand for the XSX. Forza can have negative value in potential consumers' eyes and this is still a statement of fact. When the standalone is in stock for $499, this SKU becomes superior value for all those consumers who value Forza at anything less than $50. Sales for those consumers transfer over from the bundle to the standalone.
If there was elevated interest in the XSX in a shortage scenario, you would see consumers bidding up the price (effectively represented by the bundle price points). That phenomenon is absent with the XSX.
A market supply and demand curve is made up of all the individual consumers' demands at different prices for the product. As the price goes down, consumers who value the product less or don't have the money to pay more are willing to purchase it. This is not an increase in demand but an increase in quantity demanded.
What you're seeing with Xbox is excess supply. The price point is above the equilibrium, and to move it to equilibrium, which will increase sales, they need to lower the price.
You guys can continue to remain ignorant of the market but that isn't going to stop me or anyone from looking with our eyes and seeing very clear signs that Xbox isn't in full supply in the US which has been a known problem for months this year. It's gotten tiring on this forum where after providing evidence, everyone refuses to acknowledge that they were incorrect.
If you can't agree to the above 3 facts I have no business discussing any further on this forum as you would be admitting to not being capable of having a rational discussion devoid of your bias against Xbox. Mat Piscatella said the exact same thing as I have back in March. The Series X was hard to find back then and it hasn't changed much since.
I agree with the three facts. What I don't agree is that there's no stock of Series X. There is, via bundles. Supply and demand dictates that supply constrained items have increased valuation, therefore if the item is so popular, a 10% premium would not disincentivize consumption. Yet, per your theory, it does.
Supply and demand indicates that when there is a high demand for a product, there will also be a high level of need for its supply.
money.com
The law of supply and demand states that if a product has a high demand and low supply, the price will increase. Conversely, if there is low demand and high supply, the price will decrease. Market equilibrium occurs when demand and supply intersect to create a stable price.
No, I won't take it easy to someone that says Get fucked, haters when they live in a parallel universe where data analytics is based on gut feeling and the law of supply and demand hasn't been invented.
It's an undesirable product and if you knew economic theory at all, you would know that the value of a product is important. The $559 Forza bundle does not have the value equal to its price otherwise it would currently be performing similarly to the GOW bundle.
What is the difference in units between #100 and #20-30 on the Amazon top sellers list? Cite your sources.
You really would do better, in life, not just in this argument, if you swallowed your pride and educated yourself about basic demand and supply concepts like these.
It's really simple. At a $550 price point there is weak demand for the XSX. Forza can have negative value in potential consumers' eyes and this is still a statement of fact. When the standalone is in stock for $499, this SKU becomes superior value for all those consumers who value Forza at anything less than $50. Sales for those consumers transfer over from the bundle to the standalone.
If there was elevated interest in the XSX in a shortage scenario, you would see consumers bidding up the price (effectively represented by the bundle price points). That phenomenon is absent with the XSX.
A market supply and demand curve is made up of all the individual consumers' demands at different prices for the product. As the price goes down, consumers who value the product less or don't have the money to pay more are willing to purchase it. This is not an increase in demand but an increase in quantity demanded.
What you're seeing with Xbox is excess supply. The price point is above the equilibrium, and to move it to equilibrium, which will increase sales, they need to lower the price.
The last week of Amazon sales we have was the start of the month.
US - Week starting May 1
#1 Zelda TOTK +30K
#6 Zelda OLED +5K
#11 Star Wars Jedi Survivor PS5 +2K
#13 PS5 GOW Bundle +2K
#14 Mario Choose One NSW +2K
#18 Hogwarts Legacy PS4 +1K
#24 Xbox Controller Pulse Red +1K
#29 PS5 CFI-1215A01X +1K
#30 DualShock 4 Black +1K
#34 Xbox Wireless Headset for XBS, XB1, Windows 10 +1K
#35 DualSense Gray Camouflage +1K
#36 Xbox Elite Controller Series 2 Black +1K
#37 Pokémon GO Plus + +800
#39 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate +900
#40 Neon OLED +900
#42 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe +1K
#45 PowerA Spectra Infinity Enhanced Wired Controller for XBS Black +800
#46 DualSense Edge Controller +900
#47 Series S Refurbish +800
#48 Neon Purple/Orange JoyCon +900
#50 PowerA Wired Controller for XBS Black +800
#53 Mario Party Superstars +800
#55 Xbox Elite Controller Series 2 Core White +600
#61 DualSense Midnight Black +700
#62 Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise of the Dragons NSW +900
#65 Nintendo Switch Sports +600
#69 Splatoon 3 +600
#70 DualSense Midnight Black 2nd listing +500
#71 Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope +500
#72 Blue Lite +700
#75 White OLED +500
#78 DualSense Galactic Purple +500
#80 Pokémon Violet +500
#83 Star Wars Jedi: Survivor XBS +400
#86 Kirby and the Forgotten Land +500
#90 DualSense Charging Station +500
#92 Xbox Controller Stellar Shift +500
#94 Hogwarts Legacy Deluxe NSW +500
#95 Kirby’s Return to Dream Land Deluxe +500
#98 Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury +500
#100 Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp +500
Current week has the following ranking, just posting Xbox and PS5
#21 Series X
#23 PS5
#54 PS5 GOW Bundle
#85 Series S Refurbished
Series X and PS5 should be ~2K each, PS5 GOW ~700, and the Series S Refurb ~500.
The Forza bundle was selling >900 a week in April but had fallen to ~500 a week by May.
To answer your question, about 4x difference.
I can't fucking believe you just said Series X has a need for more supply and then immediately say its supply is in surplus. I'm just going to highlight why I can't take you seriously.
This is not an increase in demand but an increase in quantity demanded.
You just wordsmith'd yourself into agreeing with me before the second line.
Maybe I need to restate my position here in a different way.
The $499 X has the potential to sell a certain amount. Let's say 10,000
Instead of supplying that amount, Xbox instead sends 5,000 Forza bundles. They only sell 2,500.
A month later, they finally send some $499 X to market. They send 5,000 and sell 5,000.
What we can clearly see from actual real world results is that the $499 X will sell better than the Forza bundle. The $499 X will also sell out because there isn't enough units of it.
I don't know what you're actually trying to argue here, the end goal that you want me to accept, all I care about is that we can come to the agreement that the $499 X does not actually have the supply necessary to sell what it could. Mat Piscatella even says this.
The $499 Series X is what sells. I never said otherwise. You spinning that the Forza bundle has low demand does not mean the $499 X also has low demand. They are seen as two different products. I edited in the last post a comparison on Amazon between the standalone consoles and the bundles. The Forza bundle just doesn't compare in value added. I don't know if you saw it but here
#32 PS5
#64 GOW Bundle
#26 Series X
#483 Forza Bundle
That's an insane difference between the two consoles and the bundles. Series X and PS5 are neck and neck, but the Forza bundle might as well not even exist.
I'm not reading all 21 notifications but some of the replies are insane rejections of reality. I'm also less and less willing to be patient when replying and to take most things said on this forum seriously as any Xbox discussion here generates some of the most lunatic drivel I've seen.
I showed real time proof that the Series X sold out at Amazon and you people are so obsessed with your Xbox/Microsoft hate you ignore it.
The most popular SKU of Xbox on Amazon sold out after only 6 days. It's back in stock now but like I've been saying for months, the supply levels are low. I got proven correct while arguing it!
The continued denial that the most popular SKU for Xbox is the $499 Series X is braindead. The continued denial that Series X is supply constrained when the most popular SKU is not available at every retailer in plentiful numbers is also braindead.
Remember, the no demand Xbox is currently trading blows with the PS5 at Amazon after receiving supply. No demand tho!
I don't even know why someone brought up the Series S, I've been saying for months that thing is dead in demand. The only console people want right now is the Series X and they don't want a $60 upcharge for it. I don't even think people want that for the PS5 anymore. At almost every retailer the standard PS5's are doing way better than the bundles when they are available. The only retailer the $559 PS5 is doing fine at is Target.
You guys can continue to remain ignorant of the market but that isn't going to stop me or anyone from looking with our eyes and seeing very clear signs that Xbox isn't in full supply in the US which has been a known problem for months this year. It's gotten tiring on this forum where after providing evidence, everyone refuses to acknowledge that they were incorrect.
Simple to understand and accept as fact: The $499 Series X is the most popular Xbox today
Simple to understand and accept as fact: When the $499 Series X is made available, it significantly outperforms every other Xbox available on the market.
Simple to understand and accept as fact: The $499 Series X can and has run out of supply in the year 2023, up to May 2023, and is not readily available at every major retailer, those being GameStop, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Amazon.
If you can't agree to the above 3 facts I have no business discussing any further on this forum as you would be admitting to not being capable of having a rational discussion devoid of your bias against Xbox. Mat Piscatella said the exact same thing as I have back in March. The Series X was hard to find back then and it hasn't changed much since.
It coming back into stock doesn't prove me wrong that the Series X has supply issues. If it had ample supply it would never blink out of stock. It doesn't have a large reserve of units.
The last week of Amazon sales we have was the start of the month.
US - Week starting May 1
#1 Zelda TOTK +30K
#6 Zelda OLED +5K
#11 Star Wars Jedi Survivor PS5 +2K
#13 PS5 GOW Bundle +2K
#14 Mario Choose One NSW +2K
#18 Hogwarts Legacy PS4 +1K
#24 Xbox Controller Pulse Red +1K
#29 PS5 CFI-1215A01X +1K
#30 DualShock 4 Black +1K
#34 Xbox Wireless Headset for XBS, XB1, Windows 10 +1K
#35 DualSense Gray Camouflage +1K
#36 Xbox Elite Controller Series 2 Black +1K
#37 Pokémon GO Plus + +800
#39 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate +900
#40 Neon OLED +900
#42 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe +1K
#45 PowerA Spectra Infinity Enhanced Wired Controller for XBS Black +800
#46 DualSense Edge Controller +900
#47 Series S Refurbish +800
#48 Neon Purple/Orange JoyCon +900
#50 PowerA Wired Controller for XBS Black +800
#53 Mario Party Superstars +800
#55 Xbox Elite Controller Series 2 Core White +600
#61 DualSense Midnight Black +700
#62 Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise of the Dragons NSW +900
#65 Nintendo Switch Sports +600
#69 Splatoon 3 +600
#70 DualSense Midnight Black 2nd listing +500
#71 Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope +500
#72 Blue Lite +700
#75 White OLED +500
#78 DualSense Galactic Purple +500
#80 Pokémon Violet +500
#83 Star Wars Jedi: Survivor XBS +400
#86 Kirby and the Forgotten Land +500
#90 DualSense Charging Station +500
#92 Xbox Controller Stellar Shift +500
#94 Hogwarts Legacy Deluxe NSW +500
#95 Kirby’s Return to Dream Land Deluxe +500
#98 Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury +500
#100 Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp +500
Current week has the following ranking, just posting Xbox and PS5
#21 Series X
#23 PS5
#54 PS5 GOW Bundle
#85 Series S Refurbished
Series X and PS5 should be ~2K each, PS5 GOW ~700, and the Series S Refurb ~500.
The Forza bundle was selling >900 a week in April but had fallen to ~500 a week by May.
To answer your question, about 4x difference.
I can't fucking believe you just said Series X has a need for more supply and then immediately say its supply is in surplus. I'm just going to highlight why I can't take you seriously.
You just wordsmith'd yourself into agreeing with me before the second line.
Maybe I need to restate my position here in a different way.
The $499 X has the potential to sell a certain amount. Let's say 10,000
Instead of supplying that amount, Xbox instead sends 5,000 Forza bundles. They only sell 2,500.
A month later, they finally send some $499 X to market. They send 5,000 and sell 5,000.
What we can clearly see from actual real world results is that the $499 X will sell better than the Forza bundle. The $499 X will also sell out because there isn't enough units of it.
I don't know what you're actually trying to argue here, the end goal that you want me to accept, all I care about is that we can come to the agreement that the $499 X does not actually have the supply necessary to sell what it could. Mat Piscatella even says this.
The $499 Series X is what sells. I never said otherwise. You spinning that the Forza bundle has low demand does not mean the $499 X also has low demand. They are seen as two different products. I edited in the last post a comparison on Amazon between the standalone consoles and the bundles. The Forza bundle just doesn't compare in value added. I don't know if you saw it but here
#32 PS5
#64 GOW Bundle
#26 Series X
#483 Forza Bundle
That's an insane difference between the two consoles and the bundles. Series X and PS5 are neck and neck, but the Forza bundle might as well not even exist.
So the difference in a week between those positions is 500 units? Noted.
The Forza bundle can be viewed as an (almost exact) XSX substitute. The bundle is always in stock, the bundle does not sell well, and therefore we can conclude that the XSX at a higher price point also doesn't sell well.
Here it is in picture form. At price P1, the Forza bundle, demand is way back at Qd1 and supply at Qs1. Microsoft lowers the price by releasing standalones (the contents of which already technically exist on shelves as fully functioning consoles in the Forza bundles), and the quantity demanded shifts to Qe, or the equilibrium quantity. Demand and quantity demanded are not the same thing. The console is in low demand based on the overall units it's selling and there is clearly excess supply as it's not selling at the price points you can readily find them on shelves for.
As a bonus here is an illustration of what a shortage does to the price.
The quantity demanded is higher than the quantity supplied, so buyers bid up the price to reach the true equilibrium. You'll remember this scenario playing out in the PS5 marketplace where prices for bundles and on the resale market continued to exceed RRP.
It's just so easy to be right. A non digital PS5 has two options, the $499 and the GOW bundle. Right now the $499 PS5 is #32 and the GOW bundle is #60. The $499 Series X is #28. Where's the Forza bundle? #483. It's an undesirable product and if you knew economic theory at all, you would know that the value of a product is important. The $559 Forza bundle does not have the value equal to its price otherwise it would currently be performing similarly to the GOW bundle.
You just convinced me that those people who said that Amazon top seller lists were not an indicator of what's going on were entirely right.
From what we know the PS5 sells way more than the series systems.... Those rankings do not reflect that.
According to Amazon (assuming your numbers are correct) the series X would outsell the PS5 when they both come in a similar bundle at the same price (however each PS5 comes with a game), and the GoW bundle barely sells (which is credible).
Either way, if the xbox was so desirable people who really want it would bite the bullet and get that Forza bundle, at least a portion of them would, just like happened with the scalpers.
@Cool hand luke Cool story, so tell me where a $60 difference, ~11%, results in 4x the sales in your standard supply/demand.
Also the difference isn't 500, it's ~1,500. You can see the closer you get to #100, items are selling 900 or less, and the closer you get to #1, the more above 1,000 an item is selling. Amazon didn't show 1.2K or 3.3K, it's rounded.
Again people are just showing that they think they know what they're talking when they don't. Simple fact is that the Series X sells far more than the bundle did. Spin that however you want, it's sad that you can't come to grips that the Series X can sell when it's in stock and still has unresolved demand.
I should be bringing up how Walmart shows you're completely wrong, but I'm right with just Amazon. The Forza bundle only shows sales like "hey we're in X amount of carts!" Yet when the Series X $499 comes in, it sells hundreds a day.
Series X has bare minimum sold ~7K at Walmart. com this month, the Forza bundle has yet to register even +100 in a single day. Even back in March, the bundle wasn't posting numbers over 100 a day.
What does your "supply/demand" "economic theory" say about that? Where's the equilibrium on price of what's going to be a 5x difference in total sales at best for the bundle?
It coming back into stock doesn't prove me wrong that the Series X has supply issues. If it had ample supply it would never blink out of stock. It doesn't have a large reserve of units.
Dunno why you guys even still bother with Welfare. He was one of the ones on Era around the start of the gen pushing the narrative that the Xbox was going to absolutely destroy the PS5 in sales. He's just as biased as anyone on these gaming forums.
You just convinced me that those people who said that Amazon top seller lists were not an indicator of what's going on were entirely right.
From what we know the PS5 sells way more than the series systems.... Those rankings do not reflect that.
According to Amazon (assuming your numbers are correct) the series X would outsell the PS5 when they both come in a similar bundle at the same price (however each PS5 comes with a game), and the GoW bundle barely sells (which is credible).
Either way, if the xbox was so desirable people who really want it would bite the bullet and get that Forza bundle, at least a portion of them would, just like happened with the scalpers.
At Walmart. com for the first week Series X came in stock again, it was selling on par with the PS5. About two weeks after that it sold out again, but has come in stock. Yet to be determined if it's low supply or has settled into a base line.
What Amazon shows is that at Amazon, Series X can match PS5.
Whether that means PS5 sales have come back down to Earth or Series X has the potential to match PS5's high sales nationwide is yet to be determined. If Series X were more in stock at other retailers we'd have a better idea of it's actual demand.
Dunno why you guys even still bother with Welfare. He was one of the ones on Era around the start of the gen pushing the narrative that the Xbox was going to absolutely destroy the PS5 in sales. He's just as biased as anyone on these gaming forums.
No I didn't. I said a $299 Xbox should do incredibly well at the start of the gen in the US and that the $500 consoles would need to get price cut after about a year. I was thinking about the market like it was pre COVID.
Post COVID it's clear the market has shifted. The general audience has accepted $500 consoles even 3 years in.
@Cool hand luke Cool story, so tell me where a $60 difference, ~11%, results in 4x the sales in your standard supply/demand.
Also the difference isn't 500, it's ~1,500. You can see the closer you get to #100, items are selling 900 or less, and the closer you get to #1, the more above 1,000 an item is selling. Amazon didn't show 1.2K or 3.3K, it's rounded.
Again people are just showing that they think they know what they're talking when they don't. Simple fact is that the Series X sells far more than the bundle did. Spin that however you want, it's sad that you can't come to grips that the Series X can sell when it's in stock and still has unresolved demand.
I should be bringing up how Walmart shows you're completely wrong, but I'm right with just Amazon. The Forza bundle only shows sales like "hey we're in X amount of carts!" Yet when the Series X $499 comes in, it sells hundreds a day.
Series X has bare minimum sold ~7K at Walmart. com this month, the Forza bundle has yet to register even +100 in a single day. Even back in March, the bundle wasn't posting numbers over 100 a day.
What does your "supply/demand" "economic theory" say about that? Where's the equilibrium on price of what's going to be a 5x difference in total sales at best for the bundle?
You're extrapolating single retailer online sales to be representative of an entire demand curve, but the simple answer is that in that case it would be an elastic demand curve where consumers are more sensitive to changes in price.
The difference between #100 and #20-30 is not 1500 unless I'm misreading the numbers.
You're extrapolating single retailer online sales to be representative of an entire demand curve, but the simple answer is that in that case it would be an elastic demand curve where consumers are more sensitive to changes in price.
How Amazon reported sales was by milestone. So sales of 555 would be reported as +500 and something that sold 22,222 would show as +20K. +1K just means anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000.
For the week I posted, sales of +1K start around #36 and then +2K around #14, but because the items between #18 and #14 didn't report sales (certain items did this) we can't say for certain if #17 isn't also +2K.
So for items at #20 or around there, ~2K should work. The Forza bundle wasn't even in the top 100 for the week so the 4x gap should still work.
I've already proven the Forza bundle uniquely does not have the value of a $60 upcharge at Amazon. The gap between the two X SKU and the two PS5 SKU shows this.
Walmart also shows that even when the $499 X isn't around, the Forza bundle didn't sell. When the $499 is around, it sells a lot. Two massive retailers show the exact same trend, can't wait to see what the argument is when GameStop, Target, and Best Buy get more Series X stock.
You're acting like the $559 X is the standard and the market is reacting to a price drop with the $499. The Forza bundle is a forced addition no one wants. Xbox had a similar issue last gen when the forced Kinect held back XB1 sales due to it including a $100 paperweight.
Demand for the Forza bundle does not correlate with demand for $499 Series X.
How Amazon reported sales was by milestone. So sales of 555 would be reported as +500 and something that sold 22,222 would show as +20K. +1K just means anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000.
For the week I posted, sales of +1K start around #36 and then +2K around #14, but because the items between #18 and #14 didn't report sales (certain items did this) we can't say for certain if #17 isn't also +2K.
So for items at #20 or around there, ~2K should work. The Forza bundle wasn't even in the top 100 for the week so the 4x gap should still work.
I've already proven the Forza bundle uniquely does not have the value of a $60 upcharge at Amazon. The gap between the two X SKU and the two PS5 SKU shows this.
Walmart also shows that even when the $499 X isn't around, the Forza bundle didn't sell. When the $499 is around, it sells a lot. Two massive retailers show the exact same trend, can't wait to see what the argument is when GameStop, Target, and Best Buy get more Series X stock.
You're acting like the $559 X is the standard and the market is reacting to a price drop with the $499. The Forza bundle is a forced addition no one wants. Xbox had a similar issue last gen when the forced Kinect held back XB1 sales due to it including a $100 paperweight.
Demand for the Forza bundle does not correlate with demand for $499 Series X.
How can there be a supply issue for the standalone product, if there are enough bundled consoles around, they are preparing the next big bundle and the standalone console is only out of stock for short periods?
You just convinced me that those people who said that Amazon top seller lists were not an indicator of what's going on were entirely right.
From what we know the PS5 sells way more than the series systems.... Those rankings do not reflect that.
According to Amazon (assuming your numbers are correct) the series X would outsell the PS5 when they both come in a similar bundle at the same price (however each PS5 comes with a game), and the GoW bundle barely sells (which is credible).
Either way, if the xbox was so desirable people who really want it would bite the bullet and get that Forza bundle, at least a portion of them would, just like happened with the scalpers.
Those rankings are normal to me.......on Amazon. For now.
As I explained earlier PS5 has sold a crap load this 1st quarter. It should be selling at a steady pace like this on Amazon at the moment.
Also, GOW bundle was consistently in the top 10 until the price went back to $559. Sales should naturally transfer back over to the regular $499 PS5......on Amazon.
Xbox spiking up temporarily when stock comes in, then dropping, is something that been happening on Amazon. What it is not doing is immediately reaching number one, or even top 10, like it did last year when there was more stock than PS5. Even then, the PS5 still sold more because the demand is higher regardless.
We’ve seen this movie play out too many times already. Green rats get excited because it looks like Xbox sales are increasing and selling more than PS5 (posting screen shots of vgchartz and amazon rankings lol) then reality hits later on.
@Cool hand luke I honestly think there's no point anymore. This guy will say others need to educate themselves while ignoring established economic theory, the basics of it nonetheless.
@Cool hand luke I honestly think there's no point anymore. This guy will say others need to educate themselves while ignoring established economic theory, the basics of it nonetheless.
@Cool hand luke I honestly think there's no point anymore. This guy will say others need to educate themselves while ignoring established economic theory, the basics of it nonetheless.
My main problem is that he just asserts things are true and then doesn't even follow the implications of those assertions.
Ok, so series X is supply constrained. Why?
What had microsoft done to address those issues, issues that no other microelectronics manufacturers are currently experiencing and haven't been for the last 9+months? (The oversupply issue is so bad that AMD, Intel, and nVidia are currently firesaling stock within a month of product launch, which is almost unheard of in the industry).
The most telling thing is that there is no deeper analysis of his cherrypicked data. "Whenever series x comes in stock it sells as quickly as the ps5" - lol, ok, how many days a month does it come in stock? If it comes in stock twice a month that's still only 1/15th the volume of ps5 sales. Then there's no answer for the supply vs demand pricing. If the Series X were really in high demand you'd see it being scalped. Instead, scalper sites like stockx have the series x readily available at below retail price. That means scalpers are 100% uninterested, they can't really profit at less than 15% markup from retail.
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