Get out of the hypothetical and snap back to reality. There is plenty of evidence that shows that the standalone $499 X wouldn't just sell what the Forza bundle did and add nothing on top of that, but instead sold far more than the Forza bundle when made available.
We know it sold out for months before June and it would always place higher and sell more than the bundle than when the bundle was all by itself.
That's what actually happened. Not whatever you're going on about.
If the Forza bundle had 10K available, it only sold 5K. If the standalone X had 10K, it sold all 10K.
You seem to just be arguing that there is more demand for a stand alone XSX vs Forza bundle but I don’t see anyone refuting that. The contention is that overall XSX demand isn’t that high and the fact that the Forza bundle wasn’t selling out and scalper prices didn’t sky rocket points to the fact that XSX supply has been pretty equal to actual demand. This supply has not significantly diminishing XBS sales potential.