Does no one find it concerning that PS5 sales are struggling to keep up with the nearly 8 year old Nintendo Switch?

[SuperPotato]

Definitely more than one factor but Price is the biggest factor.

At the current price you need to give people an incentive to buy a PS5.

300/350 pounds less so.

There are still as many PS4 gamers as PS5 gamers.

Many simply haven’t upgraded cause they are getting their yearly COD, FIFA games etc on PS4.

GTA6 will definitely change things but not that drastically.

A major price drop is needed to kickstart things.

Pretty much.

It's the price and the fact that COD, Fifa, Madden, Fortnite are still cross-gen.

 

[RE4-City]

This year? Oh OK. Yeah, I think this year specifically PS5 should be able to outsell Switch for the year, but it really depends on how aggro SIE get with sales promos in the US for BF and Christmas, and if they do some across Europe during that timeframe. And that's versus Nintendo having any special sales promos & bundles, and how big their Japanese numbers are for the holiday period.

In any case, I'm expecting any unit sales lead by either platform will be within 10% of one another, at most. It should be fairly close and, well, that's a bit telling for PS5 considering this is Switch's twilight year. Yes, PS5 is more expensive and that will always affect demand for volume being moved, but it's also the newer platform, has the PlayStation brand behind it, and has an Xbox that's basically dead in most global markets only halfway through the generation.

By all accounts, PS5 should be comfortably outpacing Switch in global unit sales when Xbox is barely able to hang on with America and UK. But that isn't what's happening, and I think it's fair to say the reasons are more than simply PS5's price.

This is very interesting to be honest. 13.5 million Switches are expected to be sold this FY and 18 Million PS5's are expected to be sold this FY as well.
I wonder who has a better chance at hitting their target come next March 31st?

The PS4 sold 13.6 Million in it's 6th FY and Nintendo is hoping Switch does only 100k less than that in it's 7th FY.
Also the tech in the PS5 should make it an easy $499 buy but its isn't as far as we have seen this year

 

[AllBizness]

OP is trolling, the only place Switch outselling PS5 is in Japan.

 

[RE4-City]

OP is trolling, the only place Switch outselling PS5 is in Japan.

Even if so, it is alarming somewhat that this past quarter only had 2.4 million PS5's shipped when Xbox is all but done.
The PS4 in the same quarter in it's lifecycle did 3.3 million

PS5 hits 61m as Sony’s year-on-year Q1 hardware sales fall but operating income rises

Very healthy mau numbers. Most of the PS userbase is actually using their console on a regular basis. But experts tell us they are all moving over to pc 🥴

icon-era.com

The switch pulling off 2.1 at this point is pretty insane when you think about it.

However we should be getting a Quarterly update very soon from Sony and Nintendo at their investor meetings

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I think lifetime PS5 pretty likely won't outsell Switch due to mainly these reasons:

• PS5 couldn't benefit of the covid bump as Switch did, it had supply constrain during that key period instead
• Inflation + covid caused components + shipments costs increase that damaged its hardware profitability to the point it couldn't apply price cuts and instead had to increase its costs. Plus pretty likely won't be able to apply price cuts in the future

Regarding final lifetime sales estimates for PS5, I think they will end somewhere between PS4 and Switch/PS2. Closer to Switch/PS2 than to PS4 due to different reasons:

• Half of the PS userbase still is in PS4 and didn't make the jump because PS4 is still getting great support with crossgen games and GaaS. At some point they'll make the jump, probably once the top sellers GTA, CoD, EAFC, AC etc stop supporting PS4.
• We saw in the leaked files that around half of PS5 customers are new to PS, meaning despite selling very well, they are growing their userbase with new users, who may be coming from different sources:
  • Growing their userbase in Asia thanks to partnerships with local teams like Mihoyo or Shift Up, Netease etc. and initiatives like China/India/etc Hero Project
  • Growing their fanbase in PC and some of these users later moving to PS5 to get the games only available (at least temporally) there
  • Growing their market share in consoles: some Xbox and Switch users may be moving to PS
  • Growing their fanbase via movies and TV shows, and part of them may end getting a console to see their original gaming version
  • Growing their fanbase by approaching new genres/user types with very successful first party titles as are Destiny, Helldivers 2 or Astro Bot
• They still didn't have any price cut, and instead they had to increase the price. Even if I think isn't likely, if they manage to increase their profitability elsewhere maybe things change or they find a way to price cut the console in a sustainable way, which would bump its hardware sales

If PS5 is already trending 2 million or so behind PS4 launch-aligned, and there is nothing on the horizon that's really signaling it'd catch up to (let alone surpass) that trajectory in the next four years (aside maybe GTA6, but I doubt that'd be enough), I don't see how you think it'll get between PS4 and Switch/PS2 for install base numbers. Sony would need to produce a low-cost PS5 alternative to achieve such a thing (among other things), but that won't be happening this generation.

And some other things: you talk about PS4 users not upgrading, which is true. But you aren't considering that some of them may have already transitioned to other platforms like Nintendo, PC (mainly Steam), or even mobile. And some smaller percentage might have just exited the market altogether, or they will continue to stick with PS4 through the rest of the generation because they know other big games like Fortnite, Madden etc. will be on PS4. Even supposing the PS4 support dries up, given Steam is getting all the same 3P support (and vast majority of that Day 1), PS4 users holding on obviously don't "need" a platform as capable as PS5 to have what's a workable gaming solution to them. They would just likely get a decent gaming PC or laptop and be fine running games at Low settings or 1080p. They're comfortable with that; Steam GPU survey charts show us such.

As far as PS5 growing its userbase in Asia, I still think this is relatively small in absolute numbers. Growing 1000% sounds impressive as a percentage, but if it's 1000% over 100 units, that just means you're now moving 1,000 units. In India, PS5 moved 60K in 2022. That's 60K...for the entire year, in the world's most populated country. Comparatively, the stagnant console gaming market of Japan is still seeing PS5 net about 60K monthly (maybe minus 10-15K) in a single month, and before the price jump, it was netting something close to 60K in just two weeks. So if people are going with the idea that country population sizes correlate to buying power, they are probably going to be surprised that PS5 likely doesn't get hard numbers in places like India and China anywhere close to what they've managed in the US. And with places like China in particular, that's in large part because PC gaming is already so entrenched there. So games like BMW won't do massive things for PS5 in China when they're primarily being pushed for PC.

In terms of price cuts, there likely won't be any until near the end of the generation. My guess is SIE will want to use PS5 & PS5 Pro as the low & mid (respectively) entry points to the PS hardware ecosystem, while positioning PS6 as the high-end option. I think that also means they'll be even more aggressive with cross-gen support, so I won't be surprised if PS5 is still getting most of the big 1P AAA titles up to even halfway through PS6's lifecycle, maybe even a bit longer. That will probably incentivize continued PS5 & PS5 Pro production, so in terms of your earlier expectations of PS5 getting closer to Switch/PS2 numbers, ironically this would be the only real means how that ends up happening. They just keep producing PS5s at suitable volumes for 10, 12, maybe even 15 years.

As can be seen in the graphs, sales say there's no self-sabotage because sales are basically on par with PS4 even if they had the shortages issue and price increase instead of price cut. Plus on top of this they are stealing market share to MS and Nintendo.

"Basically on par" in reality means ~ 2 million behind PS4 launch-aligned. So factually, they're trailing behind. And the numbers in that graph show they aren't really "stealing" market share from Nintendo or even Microsoft; the market is just shrinking because Switch is in its twilight year and Xbox is bleeding out. Yes PlayStation is getting some of that, but I'd venture to say most of the Xbox bleed is actually just migrating to PC and have been for a while at this point.

Especially when you consider a lot of those Xbox people probably also had or would've considering getting a PlayStation for exclusives, now seeing SIE's strategy with PC could've just decided they're good going to PC & Steam and getting MS & SIE's games in one place, even if they may have to wait a bit for some of SIE's titles.

We also saw that in the leaked docs that half of the PS5 sales were to new users, in a volume that can't be only from Xbox. As Hermen and Nishino said PC isn't stealing users, it is adding new players to PS instead.

SIE could be using any number of metrics to decide what's a new user, we don't know. Some of those new users could be from Nintendo and mobile, not just Xbox and PC. What we do know is that, even with those new users (keep in mind, that was just for a very specific time frame of sales, so not lifetime), PS5 is still about ~ 2 million paced behind PS4.

So if they're getting all these new users from PC (which I have doubts), they must also be losing a good number of old users to PC. It'd be working both ways.

 

[ethomaz]

I kinda miss the old way but i also like the fact that Astrobot launched 4 months after the initial announcement and Yotei is sheduled to release within the next 12 months. And both games had actual gameplay footage instead of just a splash screen or a 20 second teaser.

It also confirms that Sony has stuff ready to be shown but they're just waiting for the right moment.

I think a year max in advance is fair.
Like announce this year the games that will release next year.

 

[Yurinka]

If PS5 is already trending 2 million or so behind PS4 launch-aligned, and there is nothing on the horizon that's really signaling it'd catch up to (let alone surpass) that trajectory in the next four years (aside maybe GTA6, but I doubt that'd be enough), I don't see how you think it'll get between PS4 and Switch/PS2 for install base numbers. Sony would need to produce a low-cost PS5 alternative to achieve such a thing (among other things), but that won't be happening this generation.

And some other things: you talk about PS4 users not upgrading, which is true. But you aren't considering that some of them may have already transitioned to other platforms like Nintendo, PC (mainly Steam), or even mobile. And some smaller percentage might have just exited the market altogether, or they will continue to stick with PS4 through the rest of the generation because they know other big games like Fortnite, Madden etc. will be on PS4. Even supposing the PS4 support dries up, given Steam is getting all the same 3P support (and vast majority of that Day 1), PS4 users holding on obviously don't "need" a platform as capable as PS5 to have what's a workable gaming solution to them. They would just likely get a decent gaming PC or laptop and be fine running games at Low settings or 1080p. They're comfortable with that; Steam GPU survey charts show us such.

As far as PS5 growing its userbase in Asia, I still think this is relatively small in absolute numbers. Growing 1000% sounds impressive as a percentage, but if it's 1000% over 100 units, that just means you're now moving 1,000 units. In India, PS5 moved 60K in 2022. That's 60K...for the entire year, in the world's most populated country. Comparatively, the stagnant console gaming market of Japan is still seeing PS5 net about 60K monthly (maybe minus 10-15K) in a single month, and before the price jump, it was netting something close to 60K in just two weeks. So if people are going with the idea that country population sizes correlate to buying power, they are probably going to be surprised that PS5 likely doesn't get hard numbers in places like India and China anywhere close to what they've managed in the US. And with places like China in particular, that's in large part because PC gaming is already so entrenched there. So games like BMW won't do massive things for PS5 in China when they're primarily being pushed for PC.

In terms of price cuts, there likely won't be any until near the end of the generation. My guess is SIE will want to use PS5 & PS5 Pro as the low & mid (respectively) entry points to the PS hardware ecosystem, while positioning PS6 as the high-end option. I think that also means they'll be even more aggressive with cross-gen support, so I won't be surprised if PS5 is still getting most of the big 1P AAA titles up to even halfway through PS6's lifecycle, maybe even a bit longer. That will probably incentivize continued PS5 & PS5 Pro production, so in terms of your earlier expectations of PS5 getting closer to Switch/PS2 numbers, ironically this would be the only real means how that ends up happening. They just keep producing PS5s at suitable volumes for 10, 12, maybe even 15 years.



"Basically on par" in reality means ~ 2 million behind PS4 launch-aligned. So factually, they're trailing behind. And the numbers in that graph show they aren't really "stealing" market share from Nintendo or even Microsoft; the market is just shrinking because Switch is in its twilight year and Xbox is bleeding out. Yes PlayStation is getting some of that, but I'd venture to say most of the Xbox bleed is actually just migrating to PC and have been for a while at this point.

Especially when you consider a lot of those Xbox people probably also had or would've considering getting a PlayStation for exclusives, now seeing SIE's strategy with PC could've just decided they're good going to PC & Steam and getting MS & SIE's games in one place, even if they may have to wait a bit for some of SIE's titles.

Yes, as shown in the graphs PS5 is almost at the same level of PS4 launch aligned.

Plus there are the different points (not just GTA) I mentioned that pretty likely will help PS5 to have a stronger second half of its lifetime than PS4. Meaning, pretty likely PS5 will outsell PS4.

SIE could be using any number of metrics to decide what's a new user, we don't know.

I assume they just check if it's a brand new PSN user account of it's one already used on PS3, PS4, PSP or PS Vita.

Some of those new users could be from Nintendo and mobile, not just Xbox and PC. What we do know is that, even with those new users (keep in mind, that was just for a very specific time frame of sales, so not lifetime), PS5 is still about ~ 2 million paced behind PS4.

Yes, around 2M. Which in the context of over 60M and being almost 4 years old, not even in the half of its lifetime considering PS consoles last over 10 years and normally sell over 100M copies, it's a very little difference with some bump they may get from here or there.

Maybe from some top seller IPs ending their their crossgen support. Maybe from some price cut they may get from somewhere. Maybe from Xbox finally collapsing and getting discontinued in some major market. Or something else.

So if they're getting all these new users from PC (which I have doubts), they must also be losing a good number of old users to PC. It'd be working both ways.

They never get new all the new users from a single source, always there's a combination of sources. In this case I assume some come from PC, others from Xbox, other from Nintendo, others from movies, others from their deals with Chinese/Korean/etc. devs, their new bets for 1st party games, new marketing tactic they may had maybe putting ads somewhere they didn't before and so on.

 

[RE4-City]

Sony's and Nintendo's IR meeting for Q2 should be coming up soon (Usually early November)
Anyone got any predictions on what the results will be?
I'm predicting 2.0 Million for Switch (4.1 Million total so far this FY ending on March 31st)
and 2.6 Million for PS5 (5.0 Million total so far this FY ending on March 31st)

I se the PS3 maybe beating the Wii and PS1 ... But that's it... Definitely not touching the PS4 unless this generation goes on for 8+ years and the price comes down

It will be interesting if GTA VI will have to really blow people away for PS5 to match PS4.
The PS4 had marketing rights for GTA V remastered and RDR2 and this time around Sony will most likely have the marketing rights for GTA VI and they already had them for GTA V remastered remastered.
Like I said in the NPD thread I think a holiday 2025 PS5 bundle would have a much more profound effect than a 2026 GTA VI PS5 Bundle.

 

[Muddasar]

If PS5 is already trending 2 million or so behind PS4 launch-aligned, and there is nothing on the horizon that's really signaling it'd catch up to (let alone surpass) that trajectory in the next four years (aside maybe GTA6, but I doubt that'd be enough), I don't see how you think it'll get between PS4 and Switch/PS2 for install base numbers. Sony would need to produce a low-cost PS5 alternative to achieve such a thing (among other things), but that won't be happening this generation.

I think short term the PS5 Pro will help close that 2 million gap with the PS4.

So with the right decisions the PS5 can still beat the PS4 in lifetime sales.

Beat the Switch? That’s the most ludicrous thing I have heard.

Not happening ever.

 

[Kokoloko]

Sony is done with announcing games years in advance.

I get that it creates less hype around gaming forums but look what happened at E3 2017 and 2018. People crapped all over those conferences because they only showed "old" games.

GT5 was announced in 2005 and launched in 2010

The Last Guardian was announced in 2009 and launched for the PS4 in 2016.

Where the hell is Wolverine?

And there are plenty of other examples. Sony wants to avoid this stuff going forward.

I know Im just saying why there has been less hype when studios like Naughty Dog and Sucker Punch went 7+ years not announcing a new game. Its been 8 years now Naughty since they announced TLOU2… for an actual fan it sucks.

Yeah they’ll avoid those issues, but I personally don't think it outweighs the hype it brings. And will we see if it creates other problems or not. Im sure they are still gonna cancel games.
If they announced GOT2 last year it would of made no negative difference. Just more hype starting from last year and less idiots saying “Sony only release GAAS”, “Wheres the single player games”. Could of done less of that shite tbh.

Theres a handful of times we got Last guardian issues, but the hype it brought that year in e3 was something special for that event and going forward.

Either way, if everything goes smooth from now on with there new method, then these past few years should be the only time they had less hype. The transition period was shite and some of it not needed (GOT2)

 

[AllBizness]

Even if so, it is alarming somewhat that this past quarter only had 2.4 million PS5's shipped when Xbox is all but done.
The PS4 in the same quarter in it's lifecycle did 3.3 million

PS5 hits 61m as Sony’s year-on-year Q1 hardware sales fall but operating income rises

Very healthy mau numbers. Most of the PS userbase is actually using their console on a regular basis. But experts tell us they are all moving over to pc 🥴

icon-era.com

The switch pulling off 2.1 at this point is pretty insane when you think about it.

However we should be getting a Quarterly update very soon from Sony and Nintendo at their investor meetings

Europe is going through a really hard time tight now, they are in a recession. This winter is going to be brutal on them, especially Germany and its not going to get better anytime soon.

 

[Kokoloko]

Also when GTA6 releases next year, Its gonna be pretty crazy.
I think Nintendo wont have the same success it did with Switch 1 if it doesnt have GTA6.
Cause thats gonna be the hot news for 12 months+ after release.

But nintendo done a great job of making titles like Animal Crossing, Splatoon huge hits along with Pokemon and Mario. But vs GTA6… it at least gives PS5 bigger longer legs against Nintendo unlike PS4 vs Switch

Im sure there will be a negative movement behind GTA6 to stop the hype train but its gonna be hard to stop it

 

[voke]

Sony will sell well over 100 million PS5s and they will deem it a success.

 

[Hatefield]

I lose sleep every night.

I cry myself to sleep thinking about it

 

[Cool hand luke]

Meanwhile in reality*, PlayStation continues to outsell the combined Xbox and Switch sales month in, month out.

*Japan is a total anomaly of a market and is propping the aging switch up

 

[Killer_Sakoman]

Xbox is dead. Playstation has all the highend console market, but they are selling less. They won the console race, but gained negative market share.

 

[Cool hand luke]

Xbox is dead. Playstation has all the highend console market, but they are selling less. They won the console race, but gained negative market share.

They've gained market share in the high-end console market. The PS4 & Xbox One are still part of that market, so it hasn't even shrunk.

What you mean is that Xbox is declining vs Xbox One and PS5 isn't ahead of PS4 by the same amount (or at all) at this point in the lifecycle, which is also true but not as relevant when the players are still on PS4 waiting to upgrade.

 

[Kokoloko]

Xbox is dead. Playstation has all the highend console market, but they are selling less. They won the console race, but gained negative market share.

This is correct.
There was the covid shortages, but I still think now they should be reaching for PS4 numbers at least at the end of the generation.

Next year will be important and probably there biggest year. GOT2, GTA6, Death Stranding 2, Marathon, Venom and a couple more hopefully, plenty of negative fail and FUD campaigns coming

 

[CrackmanNL]

Very concerned. Especially factoring the lower price points of Switch Lite, we know why there is not another console manufacturer mentioned that has legitimate concerns in comparison.



and on the Japan side which Switch is still going strong does not take away that last year was the following:

 

[rofif]

That's because gaming as we know it is dying.
Kids play roblox and fortninte on their laptops. Or minecraft at best.
No kid wants a ps5. All kids want roblox and five nights at freddies.
At best they also want oculus and switch for some of them mario.