Do you think it will be in the GOTY conversation?
Yes.
Can it win it all? Depends on what surprises drop for the rest of the year or if games that a vague 2024 release window actually make it.
Right now there's only two on the dot 90s games(I don't count TLou Part II Remastered) on OC:
Browse the top rated games of 2024. The top critics in gaming. All in one place.
opencritic.com
Tekken 8 and LaD 8
The former would never win a GotY unless it's several points ahead of EVERYTHING that year, and that's not happening.
LaD 8 is cool and all, and in a weaker year might get one of the 6 nominations, but it's clearly too low rated to win even in a weak year.
So that means we have to look at future releases to see what sort of opposition this game could potentially have if it gets scored very highly.
In
March there's two big releases, Dragon's Dogma 2 and Rise of the Ronin.
I don't think Rise of the Ronin will hit anything over 85-86~ and will possibly be rated much lower.
It seems to be a lower production values open world that is very cookie cutter(AC like) and critics generally don't rate those highly. Dragon's Dogma 2 could see a much stronger rating than its initial 75 for OG release and 81 for Dark Arisen, but it's probably only going to hit a high 80s at the maximum.
In
April we've got Stellar Blade, folks here might be excited but that too is probably capped at mid/high 80s.
May? There's Hellblade I guess...
Nothing in
June and
July(yet)
So we get to
August and Black Myth: Wukong
Here too, I don't have any hopes that a studio's first game and a soulslike would get anywhere the score required to win a GotY. It does look cool visually though.
September
I'm sure fan of the Stalkers series and Space Marine are going to be happy with their games, but there's nothing here yet.
Same for
November and
December.
So really, we have to look at what isn't announced and/or has no solid release date right now.
Chief among them is Hades 2(slated for "2024") the first game got a
94 on OC, that's a strong contender in most years.
Then if Nintendo releases their new console in September, they could have the new 3D Mario game to go along with it.
The last one, Super Mario Odyssey, scored a
97 on OC and generally these games get rated on average with an extremely high score.
Those coming out and being eligible for TGAs 2024 is not a guarantee.
But barring any other unannounced game by some other big publisher like PlayStation, these are the possible two main rivals for the game I foresee for Rebirth.
