Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard

[Dabaus]

Yeah, that's my reading of it. What people are forgetting, namely those on the hopium camp, is that any extended timeline past the 18th of July will need to be approved by the shareholders of both companies. And looking at a deal that's growing to be more and more uncertain, and the CMA being the biggest roadblock, shareholders may actually just bail. I thought Microsoft's ones would actually be bailing on this, so ABK having cold feet is surprising, but it kinda makes sense.

An interview came out today with the comcast ceo where he said he would buy ABK if the deal fell through, which means Bobby is making the rounds for new potential buyers. Thats why i think this mostly performance unless the judge can somehow force the cma to rule before july 18th and redefine the market definition.

 

[AshHunter216]

An interview came out today with the comcast ceo where he said he would buy ABK if the deal fell through, which means Bobby is making the rounds for new potential buyers. Thats why i think this mostly performance unless the judge can somehow force the cma to rule before july 18th and redefine the market definition.

I don't think the cma has to redefine the market because of a CAT ruling.

 

[Dabaus]

Is the trial over?

 

[Darth Vader]

Is the trial over?

Still live

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Estimate is around half a day. This'll be going on for a while longer yet

 

[Dabaus]

The CMA probably didnt expect a kangaroo court when they sent this guy.

 

[Swift_Star]

The CMA probably didnt expect a kangaroo court when they sent this guy.

I don’t think they actually care. They’ll block it again regardless.

 

[Dabaus]

Can the CAT overule the CMA?

 

[Darth Vader]

The CMA probably didnt expect a kangaroo court when they sent this guy.

The CMA should have sent an actual lawyer and not this guy. The judge doesn't seem to be biased necessarily, he's just agreeing with the guy that makes the better arguments (even if those arguments may be shit).

 

[Darth Vader]

Can the CAT overule the CMA?

No.

 

[Darth Vader]

The CMA lawyer is god awful.

 

[AshHunter216]

So the performance of the lawyers has a huge impact on what the CAT will decide?

 

[Swift_Star]

So the performance of the lawyers has a huge impact on what the CAT will decide?

no

 

[Darth Vader]

Oh this Microsoft lawyer is good, like really good. He just kinda gave away what he wants IMO - They want an expedited response that is also in writing (judge mentioned it wouldn't necessarily need to be via the usual steps). They are betting on the CMA making mistakes so that they can contest those in court, I think it's fairly obvious right now. The Judge seems willing to "innovate" in the response process, but Microsoft wants their cake and to eat it too.

 

[gokuss4]

So the performance of the lawyers has a huge impact on what the CAT will decide?

Yes

 

[Nhomnhom]

Oh this Microsoft lawyer is good, like really good. He just kinda gave away what he wants IMO - They want an expedited response that is also in writing (judge mentioned it wouldn't necessarily need to be via the usual steps). They are betting on the CMA making mistakes so that they can contest those in court, I think it's fairly obvious right now.

So their plan is to piss off the CMA so that the CMA will then decide against the deal again in the future?

 

[Darth Vader]

They're taking a break now, 10 min.

 

[Swift_Star]

So their plan is to piss off the CMA so that the CMA will then decide against the deal again in the future?

Basically, yes. But the thing is, like many times before: the deals go back to the CMA and then the CMA blocks the deals again and demand structure remedies.
CMA will not change their blocking just because of a hearing.

 

[Darth Vader]

So their plan is to piss off the CMA so that the CMA will then decide against the deal again in the future?

I think this is a Hail Mary. The judge is willing to offer them a shortened timeline if some concessions can be made regarding that timeline, like skipping some of the standards/requirements the CMA usually imposes. Let's call it certain standards. Microsoft however, wants those standards followed down to a T, which seems to me like they are expecting the CMA to commit such an error that could make it more easily contested in court. The judge kind of pushed back on that. That's my understanding.

This could work and the CMA will have a load of work in the next few weeks, since Microsoft only sent them the documentation yesterday per what I've been told (I've missed that part). If Microsoft is successful, they will likely have a better case to challenge whatever decision. If they fail, the CMA will absolutely tear them a new asshole.

 

[AshHunter216]

I think this is a Hail Mary. The judge is willing to offer them a shortened timeline if some concessions can be made regarding that timeline, like skipping some of the standards/requirements the CMA usually imposes. Let's call it certain standards. Microsoft however, wants those standards followed down to a T, which seems to me like they are expecting the CMA to commit such an error that could make it more easily contested in court. The judge kind of pushed back on that. That's my understanding.

This could work and the CMA will have a load of work in the next few weeks, since Microsoft only sent them the documentation yesterday per what I've been told (I've missed that part). If Microsoft is successful, they will likely have a better case to challenge whatever decision. If they fail, the CMA will absolutely tear them a new asshole.

So they're trying to force a situation in which the cma has less time to do the required paperwork in the hopes that they make procedural errors that can be more easily appealed?

What are the worst and best case scenarios for the ruling today in your opinion?