@Savant with all due respect, and I say this as someone who vehemently dislikes Xbox's upper management and have grown into being against this ABK deal but...if you're saying MS will always be dead last, why be against the deal?
By that logic it wouldn't matter who they buy, right? Because they would always be in 3rd. But in what way? Revenue? They've already somehow passed Nintendo in gaming revenue and if/when they acquire ABK, they're gonna shoot up to $22-$23 billion. That's literally only $3 billion less than PlayStation's gaming revenue the past fiscal year. That's revenue Xbox can use (as valuation) for more (and bigger) 3P Game Pass deals, marketing deals, and getting funding from the rest of the company. Inorganic revenue growth through M&As of big 3P publishers.
The truth is, the reason Microsoft's strategy is scary is because they want to control all access to 3P gaming supply and be the main player in terms of behind-the-scenes APIs, SDKs, cloud networking and development resources for 3P developers and publishers. To in turn make those 3P less reliant on Sony for those things, which in turn makes those 3P prioritize Sony's systems less in terms of pushing certain technical features or advantages (arbitrary parity), which in turn gets Sony less leverage in working out favorable deals with those 3P and their games (any deal that targets specific features of PS consoles ends up costing more because of 3P preference entrenchment into Microsoft's network of OS, SDK, API, and cloud products & services for game development, logistics, databasing etc.). And that is just with 3P Microsoft don't try acquiring.
Once acquisitions come into the picture, all of the above is a factor in addition to cockblocking direct competitors like Sony permanently from being able to engage in independent partnerships, discussions, deals etc. with those 3P. Any single thing Sony would want to do with that 3P, has to go through Microsoft, and would have to inherently also benefit Xbox in some capacity, or else it simply is not going to happen. As an example, say if Sony had Insomniac who wanted to enter a partnership with ABK to bring back the Tony Hawk series, but originally do so as a PlayStation console exclusive. Which would be well within their right, since Insomniac is a 1P team and ABK would just be lending the license for the IP to them under Sony's watch.
Well, if MS owns ABK, guess what? There's 0% chance Insomniac would ever be able to get IP license rights to Tony Hawk unless they also developed the game for Series X AND Series S. If this meant the team had ideas scope-wise that required PS5-level hardware, they'd now have to get rid of those ideas because the Series S cannot implement them without significant performance issues. Sony/Insomniac would also not be allowed to add PlayStation characters to that version of the game, because Microsoft would demand 100% content parity; either those characters also come to the Xbox version or they don't come at all. However, Microsoft would not hold the same parity requirement for any of their brand's guest characters onto other competing platforms, especially if they could use those characters to drum up perks for Game Pass subscribers (unless they were to also get or "force" Game Pass onto PlayStation platforms :/).
That is just one example but serves as a bigger point to what Microsoft want to do to competitors like Sony. They buy up more of the market in terms of key 3P partners, they gain complete control of the IP and other associated assets, they become the middleman and last stop, and they will force parity that is beneficial to them else no competitor gets anything. Whereas if these 3P were to remain independent, competitors like Sony could still engage in partnerships for deals and content that ultimately benefits their customers.
Judge Corley messed up big time by not understanding a very simple reality: there is no "the consumers". There are Microsoft/Xbox consumers, there are Sony/PlayStation consumers, and you have people who might be in both ecosystems and therefore would be consumers of both. There is no existence where the majority of consumers own all available options, nor is that supposed to be the case nor is it "anti-consumer" they don't or that they may miss out on games (1P or 3P) because they do not have a particular platform. "Bad for Sony, but not bad for consumers" is a false saying because Sony's consumers ARE impacted by Microsoft acquiring ABK, and since they exist as Sony/PlayStation consumers, they are also part of the consumer market.
However, pretending that the majority of consumers, who are the casual & mainstream, are permanently locked into a given ecosystem is equally false. They CAN switch, and we've seen it happen over the years. How do you think the 360 grew so much over the OG Xbox? That was at the expense of PS3's early struggles. If you create some condition where Microsoft can just keep gobbling up big 3P publishers under the misguided belief that "nothing will change", then you'll actually create a situation
where things can very much change in their favor. Those BTS benefits I said earlier? Those will trickle down to frontside things like Game Pass, we're already seeing that with Sega/Atlus after their partnership with Azure.
Thinking Sony can maintain their lead by keeping things going the same as usual is what's going to cause them to squander it. If they sway enthusiasts who are in both ecosystems to prefer Xbox, that will have an influence on casual and mainstream buyers. And unlike XBO gen, Microsoft actually tried giving a shit about ROTW this gen (even if they are still getting destroyed in places like Japan), they would only increase that and inevitably make some inroads if trying the same next gen.
Sony still has the advantage at current but I think with things like community messaging with online enthusiasts, they have lost substantial ground to Microsoft. If you look at the past few months, it's been Microsoft and Xbox-affiliated shills, influencers, "insiders" etc. who have been controlling a lot of the gaming narrative. Add on top Xbox executives like Phil Spencer & Aaron Greenberg regularly doing interviews with gaming media & podcasts/content creators, posting on Twitter, some even on forums etc...their grassroots marketing & messaging is disgusting in many ways but also effective. Sony dominates them in marketing & messaging to casuals & mainstream but that is offset somewhat by things like the Barbie marketing deal Xbox have, and MS/Xbox's presence in the PC gaming space.
PlayStation's short-term strengths and dominance are still here, but the long-term is not guaranteed. Microsoft's trying to rig a lot of things against Sony & PlayStation unfairly, but Sony can still make some big moves to choke them off as many avenues as possible and secure vital aspects of PlayStation for the longer future. But some of those things need to be done within the next 6-12 months, not 2-3 years, and that's on top of maintaining the marquee traditional 1P AAA quantity and quality as always. Now the big question is if Sony will actually do those things...