Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard

[Bryank75]

NEXT KEY DATES:

- February 22nd 2023: last day to respond to the remedies proposed by the CMA.

- March 1st 2023: last day to respond to the provisional findings from the CMA.

- Early March 2023: the cut-off point to offer remedies to the EC.

- Late March 2023: responses to the provisional findings and remedies from the CMA will be likely published.

- April 11th 2023: final decision from the EC.

- April 12th 2023: motion for a preliminary injunction on the gamers' lawsuit.

- April 18th 2023: second extension of the original outside date. If MS quits by that date they have to pay a termination fee of $2,500,000,000; if they don't, the outside date gets extended until July 18th 2023.

- April 26th 2023: final report and remedies from the CMA.

- April 28th 2023: decision from New Zealand.

- April - May 2023: decision from the SAMR in China.

- July 18th 2023: The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. If MS quits by that date they have to pay a termination fee of $3,000,000,000; if they don't, they'll have to renegotiate the outside date with ABK.

- August 2nd 2023: beginning of the FTC in-house trial.

- Early 2024: decision from the FTC administrative law judge.

- Anything beyond that: unknown

I don't think that we are getting any new documents until the end of March, when the responses to PF and remedies from MS, ABK, Sony and more interested parties should be published by the CMA

Until then, press reports should be the main source of information

Via Idas on Resetera.

 

[AshHunter216]

I figured that there would be no major news for a while. Interesting to know that MS and ABK aren't the only ones allowed to respond.

 

[KiryuRealty]

I figured that there would be no major news for a while. Interesting to know that MS and ABK aren't the only ones allowed to respond.

They’ve been petitioned for response by Microsoft’s legal team in the FTC suit.

 

[AshHunter216]

They’ve been petitioned for response by Microsoft’s legal team in the FTC suit.

I was talking about in regards to the CMA. I think that regulatory body has the most influence over how this deal turns out.

 

[Swift_Star]

NEXT KEY DATES:

- February 22nd 2023: last day to respond to the remedies proposed by the CMA.

- March 1st 2023: last day to respond to the provisional findings from the CMA.

- Early March 2023: the cut-off point to offer remedies to the EC.

- Late March 2023: responses to the provisional findings and remedies from the CMA will be likely published.

- April 11th 2023: final decision from the EC.

- April 12th 2023: motion for a preliminary injunction on the gamers' lawsuit.

- April 18th 2023: second extension of the original outside date. If MS quits by that date they have to pay a termination fee of $2,500,000,000; if they don't, the outside date gets extended until July 18th 2023.

- April 26th 2023: final report and remedies from the CMA.

- April 28th 2023: decision from New Zealand.

- April - May 2023: decision from the SAMR in China.

- July 18th 2023: The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. If MS quits by that date they have to pay a termination fee of $3,000,000,000; if they don't, they'll have to renegotiate the outside date with ABK.

- August 2nd 2023: beginning of the FTC in-house trial.

- Early 2024: decision from the FTC administrative law judge.

- Anything beyond that: unknown

I don't think that we are getting any new documents until the end of March, when the responses to PF and remedies from MS, ABK, Sony and more interested parties should be published by the CMA

Until then, press reports should be the main source of information

Via Idas on Resetera.

This going to be long…

 

[AshHunter216]

Does anyone have an idea how likely it is for the cma to accept a behavioral remedy over a structural one in a case like this?

 

[KiryuRealty]

This going to be long…

Not really. If they can’t appease the CMA within a month or so, it’s done.

 

[AshHunter216]

So after some more digging, it looks like the CMA says they would consider that 10 year agreement by Microsoft, but that based on their provisional findings, market conditions don't seem to indicate that something like that would be enough to prevent harm to competition. The burden is on Microsoft to prove to the cma that their offer is good enough. My guess is that Microsoft wouldn't have made that offer so readily if its terms really limited the massive advantages this deal would give them.

 

[laynelane]

So after some more digging, it looks like the CMA says they would consider that 10 year agreement by Microsoft, but that based on their provisional findings, market conditions don't seem to be indicate that something like that would be enough to prevent harm to competition. The burden is on Microsoft to prove to the cma that their offer is good enough. My guess is that Microsoft wouldn't have made that offer so readily if its terms really limited the massive advantages this deal would give them.

View attachment 501

I read that as the 10 year offer is not even on the CMA's radar. They knew about it and still wrote the highlighted part - which is saying they'll give MS a chance to come up with behavioral remedies, but don't see them as feasible in this situation.

 

[KiryuRealty]

So after some more digging, it looks like the CMA says they would consider that 10 year agreement by Microsoft, but that based on their provisional findings, market conditions don't seem to be indicate that something like that would be enough to prevent harm to competition. The burden is on Microsoft to prove to the cma that their offer is good enough. My guess is that Microsoft wouldn't have made that offer so readily if its terms really limited the massive advantages this deal would give them.

View attachment 501

They also prefaced the whole remedies section by saying, in effect, behavioural remedies are too much hassle to enforce, and Microsoft can pretty much be counted on to break them anyway, so they aren’t really looking to go that way unless it is something extremely easy to punish them effectively for, and since MS can shrug off a billion-dollar fine, that basically means they said no to anything but structural remedy.

 

[Bryank75]

This going to be long…

*Pause*

 

[Bryank75]

So after some more digging, it looks like the CMA says they would consider that 10 year agreement by Microsoft, but that based on their provisional findings, market conditions don't seem to indicate that something like that would be enough to prevent harm to competition. The burden is on Microsoft to prove to the cma that their offer is good enough. My guess is that Microsoft wouldn't have made that offer so readily if its terms really limited the massive advantages this deal would give them.

View attachment 501

Great to see them put it plainly in writing, that is the feeling I got from what I had read and heard of their findings but you have so many people denying and coming up with alternate facts / realities where this deal can 'just work around' the CMA and UK....

The multitude of things MSFT could do to undermine playing COD on PS is undeniable... from worse online experiences, throttling, lagging, to lower performance, lower optimization, exclusives for Xbox, pricing differences, putting COD in gamepass and then literally giving gamepass away in promotions until they steal enough players from PS......

It is literally unworkable and the damage can be done before the CMA have a chance to respond. Gaming is too fast to allow a behavioral remedy, especially when MSFT consistently shows a willingness to operate without any ethics to get what they want and say anything they need to.

The track-record is there for everyone to see.

 

[laynelane]

Great to see them put it plainly in writing, that is the feeling I got from what I had read and heard of their findings but you have so many people denying and coming up with alternate facts / realities where this deal can 'just work around' the CMA and UK....

The multitude of things MSFT could do to undermine playing COD on PS is undeniable... from worse online experiences, throttling, lagging, to lower performance, lower optimization, exclusives for Xbox, pricing differences, putting COD in gamepass and then literally giving gamepass away in promotions until they steal enough players from PS......

It is literally unworkable and the damage can be done before the CMA have a chance to respond. Gaming is too fast to allow a behavioral remedy, especially when MSFT consistently shows a willingness to operate without any ethics to get what they want and say anything they need to.

The track-record is there for everyone to see.

Agreed on all this. MS really played their hand with the Zenimax purchase and regulators took note.

 

[Darth Vader]

Finally took some time to read the CMA document on remedies. Per my non-expert analysis, it seems to me like the CMA is looking more towards structural remedies rather than behavioural ones.

In determining an appropriate remedy, the CMA will consider the extent to which different remedy options would be effective in remedying, mitigating or preventing the SLC or any resulting adverse effects that have been provisionally identified.

As set out in published remedies guidance, in merger inquiries the CMA prefers structural remedies, such as divestiture or prohibition, over behavioural remedies, because:
(a) structural remedies are more likely to deal with an SLC and its resulting adverse effects directly and comprehensively at source by restoring rivalry;
(b) behavioural remedies are less likely to have an effective impact on the SLC and its resulting adverse effects, and are more likely to create significant costly distortions in market outcomes; and
(c) structural remedies rarely require monitoring and enforcement once implemented

Then we have the actual structural remedies they will considered. Contrary to what many think, this is not an "offer", but rather the options they will present if they decide structural remedies are required.

At this stage, the CMA has identified the following possible structural remedies:
(a) Requiring a partial divestiture of Activision Blizzard, Inc. This may be:
(i) Divestiture of the business associated with Call of Duty;
(ii) Divestiture of the Activision segment of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (the Activision segment), which would include the business associated with Call of Duty;
(iii) Divestiture of the Activision segment and the Blizzard segment (the Blizzard segment) of Activision Blizzard, Inc., which would include the business associated with Call of Duty and World of Warcraft, among other titles.
(b) Prohibition of the merger

Basically, if they decide to go forward with these remedies, Microsoft will, with the exception of (b), have to decide if they divest in all business related to CoD. This can go from divesting on the IP, on Activition itself, or Activision and Blizzard. Since Microsoft has been so adamant that this deal is about mobile games and not CoD, I suspect the CMA, in the event that they propose structural remedies, will go with either options (ii) or (iii) of remedy (a). I think this is where their comments about mobile will screw them royally.

I have more thoughts but they will be added some other time.

 

[Swift_Star]

You know… in the end, even if it passes… MS will run ABK into the ground. This is a fact.

 

[Swift_Star]

Do Xbox fans on Twitter stay too much in their Xbox bubble? They’re seemingly the only people that truth believe the deal will pass smoothly… lol

 

[KiryuRealty]

Do Xbox fans on Twitter stay too much in their Xbox bubble? They’re seemingly the only people that truth believe the deal will pass smoothly… lol

Xbox fanboys are so detached from reality that they keep buying XBox even after all the breached promises and disappointments, believing Phil when he says “Next year will be awesome!!!!”

 

[Aidendelaney95]

Seriously though, imagine getting dogwalked by the wee guy. This is some David VS Goliath shit.

 

[Old Gamer]

Seriously though, imagine getting dogwalked by the wee guy. This is some David VS Goliath shit.

Wait until the FTC issues their subpoenas, the truth about the gamepass scam (and other shady shit outside gaming) will come out.

I saw people in twatter talking about Sony reciprocating, but they are not a party in the lawsuit. The FTC are the ones who can and will do so.

 

[Deleted member 417]

This deal won't be done until 2024?

E3 2023 "just wait until you see the games coming in 2024 when the deal goes through"

Seriously though, by 2024 Microsoft are going to be so far behind it won't make a difference wether they own ABK or not as no-one will be gaming on xbox.