As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios they now have, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with.
Things could unravel pretty fast now, especially if Actibliz deal is blocked.
Personally, I don't see them selling off Xbox. Been saying for a while but, if push comes to shove, why not just forego the traditional console business model for real this time, and pivot Xbox into a gaming-centric PC brand?
MS has seemingly always been more at home on PC anyway even WRT gaming, it's how they got their start into gaming, not consoles. They missed a HUGE opportunity basically abandoning PC in the early-mid '00s and letting Valve settle in with Steam. The least they could do now is try positioning their PC hardware for gamers who want the freedom of PC (and some of the expandability) and the productivity of Windows, but want a powerful NUC-style console that doesn't cost $2,000+ dollars to give performance equivalent to a $500 console box. Maybe they're willing to pay $700 or $800, maybe even $900 or so for such a box if it allowed them to use full-fat Windows, gave performance in line with a current PlayStation console, allowed for some upgradability (more RAM, larger SSD, maybe some form of eGPU expansion with better connectivity and upgradable CPU) and where they could just run Steam/GOG/EGS/Windows Store through it.
Personally, I'd buy such an Xbox Day 1 especially if I were in the market of upgrading/replacing my PC but don't want to fork out thousands for the latest and greatest. It's a very good business opportunity for MS IMHO, it'd let them upgrade Xbox devices semi-regularly, probably allow for more design innovations (with a Surface-like approach), have good profit margins off the hardware itself, etc. And they could start transitioning to that even this generation by offering an upgrade path to some form of Windows for Xbox Series systems. Maybe they don't allow side-running Steam or EGS on them quite yet, but eventually transition there.
If they want big gaming revenue, this way they no longer have a reason to withhold content from Sony & Nintendo. This model would probably even make them more receptive to allowing some form of Game Pass on their systems, since they allow Ubisoft+ for example (with Sony), and Xbox would just be a PC-centric gaming device at this point, no longer a "console", but could still benefit from some of the economies of scale of a console, R&D benefits/investments with AMD, etc. And again, if you wanted to upgrade them, you can, they could even make some fit-to-form eGPU docking component to it for letting bigger cards interface.
TBH I think that's probably the best future for Xbox with or without ABK, because it's clear MS really want to grow their gaming revenue, and if that includes things like publisher or even further developer acquisitions, why make it harder on yourself by pushing an Xbox operating on the traditional console business model? Most of the blowback they're facing over ABK is BECAUSE they are on that model but still want to do other stuff alongside it, causing conflicts. If they even bring more of their games to say Google (Android) and Apple (iOS/MacOS), they would have a much easier time getting Game Pass into their ecosystems, as well, especially if MS allowed their respective storefronts onto Xbox & Windows.
Which gets cancelled first, Fable or perfect Dark? Im going with Perfect Dark.
Hopefully neither :/.
Rivet! Good to see you!
Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.
I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.
I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.
Yeah GP on console is stagnant, we've seen Phil himself say it. So most of the growth's coming from PC but, as you kind of suggested, it's at no additional cost via PC and that's both because the hardware entry price might be cheaper (if a person already has a good enough PC), but also because it's cheaper there (no need to pay for online).
And also, considering PC actually gets some real timed Xbox exclusives (Flight Sim, Halo Wars, Gears Tactics, Age of Empires etc.) and perks like the RIOT stuff,
AND you don't need to pay for online
AND you get crossplay with Xbox owners and a better Discord experience (since the "real" app is on Windows/PC)....all of that creates inter-ecosystem conflict between two product types Microsoft want to simultaneously push to customers.