MS and Gaming Revenue Overview

KiryuRealty

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28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Hi Bryank ! Yes, HW sales are the big red flag so soon in a new gen. I agree the lack of great exclusives definitely hurt them.

It looks to me a lot of GP growrh depends on Starfield success now... That game should definitely bring subscribers, but why would they stay on the long run ?
With all the hardcores who have stacked years of Game Pass, usually at ridiculous discounts using various exploits, I do not think we will see a noticeable impact from any game being added to Game Pass.
 
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arvfab

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With all the hardcores who have stacked years of Game Pass, usually at ridiculous discounts using various exploits, I do not think we will see a noticeable impact from any game being added to Game Pass.

Aren't those 3 years stacked subs coming to an end soon?
 
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Gediminas

Gediminas

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With all the hardcores who have stacked years of Game Pass, usually at ridiculous discounts using various exploits, I do not think we will see a noticeable impact from any game being added to Game Pass.
even if they manage to attract new subs, it will be like 3$ for 3 month. it is like nothing.

i had a picture. where people voted, it was 20k sample size. only 16% will gonna buy it. 84% won't get it or just from gamepass.
 

Rivet

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Rivet you big ball of Furry fluff, it's good to see you.

Hope you are well, I wonder what brought you out of the woodwork, :love:

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Hi Sircaw, my favorite fish ! I'm pretty fine thanks, it's just I have a bit less time on my hands these days with the family and everything. I hope everything is going well for you too my friend. 😘
 
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Yurinka

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Declines in 1st and 3rd party sales: seems Gamepass is achieving its plans. In theory GP has been growing for quarters according to the typical "partly offset by GP growth" but they continue without sharing numbers. Meaning that if the growth is in revenue or subs it must be minimal, basically flat.

Regarding hardware sales, it's weird to analize due to chips shortages, but normally consoles grow YoY until their third-fifth year, where they peak and after that they keep decreasing YoY. So a 13% decrease now in a Christmas period isn't good news at all, specially while having their best selling console disconted.

Meanwhile in the Davos forum:

1200px-Sting_in_April_2018.jpg

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Which gets cancelled first, Fable or perfect Dark? Im going with Perfect Dark.
None of them. I think both will be released.

Well what are the numbers???
Here:
 
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Bodycount611

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i expect perfect dark/ fable to just quietly go away, like their past fake-announces they used to drum up hype. Like Phantom Dust.

You guys have to understand, the games were never MEANT to come out.

The CGI trailers did their job. Placated the xbox hardcore for awhile, and fooled a few uninformed consumers into purchasing the console initially.

The fake game announces are band-aid solutions, and Phil uses them often. Only problem is, he's used them so much, that people have finally caught on.
 

Dick Jones

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Well what are the numbers???


You know they say that all consoles are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Xbox and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another hardware company you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Nintendo to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at NPD, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Nintendo KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!

So Xbox, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at NPD. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at NPD. See Phil, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at NPD.

tenor.png


P.S I know Nintendo are doing fantastic.
 

KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
You know they say that all consoles are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Xbox and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another hardware company you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Nintendo to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at NPD, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Nintendo KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!

So Xbox, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at NPD. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at NPD. See Phil, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at NPD.

View attachment 287


P.S I know Nintendo are doing fantastic.
Ah, Steiner Math, the noblest of all the sciences!
 

KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Aren't monthly active users a metric that can easily misrepresented? ie count any login as a mau?
Yes. There is also not a guaranteed link between MAU and any kind of profit.

It was a perfect fake statistic MS started leaning on huge when real revenue and sales took downturns when tablets and smartphones started harming PC sales, as you can almost always find a way to make it positive even when every real money metric is down.

Investment these days is all based on pursuit of growth, not just profit, so unless you have a massive spike in profit to go with a contraction in unit sales, you can be doing ok and still have an investor revolt on your hands.

Losing money AND failing to grow in most metrics is what ends executive careers.
 
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KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Yes it's Minecraft on all platforms and Xbox on PC (the one on your system tray when you turn on your computer).
That was also why Windows 7 auto-launched all the Xbox apps. It let them brag about simultaneous connected users, when the reality was a lot of them were people using their PCs and not interacting with Xbox Live in any real way.
 

Dick Jones

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That was also why Windows 7 auto-launched all the Xbox apps. It let them brag about simultaneous connected users, when the reality was a lot of them were people using their PCs and not interacting with Xbox Live in any real way.
That's genius to be fair. Complete creative accounting, but still 😂
 
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As a side effect, you can be pretty sure MS is already thinking about selling Xbox brand and moving on from gaming altogether right now. Game Pass was an all-in bet for their gaming division. If it doesn't work, and it definitely seems it doesn't, then with Bethesda and the tons of studios they now have, that's a lot of people you have to pay every month with zero hope of reaching huge profit one day, which was the only reason MS was building Game Pass to begin with.

Things could unravel pretty fast now, especially if Actibliz deal is blocked.

Personally, I don't see them selling off Xbox. Been saying for a while but, if push comes to shove, why not just forego the traditional console business model for real this time, and pivot Xbox into a gaming-centric PC brand?

MS has seemingly always been more at home on PC anyway even WRT gaming, it's how they got their start into gaming, not consoles. They missed a HUGE opportunity basically abandoning PC in the early-mid '00s and letting Valve settle in with Steam. The least they could do now is try positioning their PC hardware for gamers who want the freedom of PC (and some of the expandability) and the productivity of Windows, but want a powerful NUC-style console that doesn't cost $2,000+ dollars to give performance equivalent to a $500 console box. Maybe they're willing to pay $700 or $800, maybe even $900 or so for such a box if it allowed them to use full-fat Windows, gave performance in line with a current PlayStation console, allowed for some upgradability (more RAM, larger SSD, maybe some form of eGPU expansion with better connectivity and upgradable CPU) and where they could just run Steam/GOG/EGS/Windows Store through it.

Personally, I'd buy such an Xbox Day 1 especially if I were in the market of upgrading/replacing my PC but don't want to fork out thousands for the latest and greatest. It's a very good business opportunity for MS IMHO, it'd let them upgrade Xbox devices semi-regularly, probably allow for more design innovations (with a Surface-like approach), have good profit margins off the hardware itself, etc. And they could start transitioning to that even this generation by offering an upgrade path to some form of Windows for Xbox Series systems. Maybe they don't allow side-running Steam or EGS on them quite yet, but eventually transition there.

If they want big gaming revenue, this way they no longer have a reason to withhold content from Sony & Nintendo. This model would probably even make them more receptive to allowing some form of Game Pass on their systems, since they allow Ubisoft+ for example (with Sony), and Xbox would just be a PC-centric gaming device at this point, no longer a "console", but could still benefit from some of the economies of scale of a console, R&D benefits/investments with AMD, etc. And again, if you wanted to upgrade them, you can, they could even make some fit-to-form eGPU docking component to it for letting bigger cards interface.

TBH I think that's probably the best future for Xbox with or without ABK, because it's clear MS really want to grow their gaming revenue, and if that includes things like publisher or even further developer acquisitions, why make it harder on yourself by pushing an Xbox operating on the traditional console business model? Most of the blowback they're facing over ABK is BECAUSE they are on that model but still want to do other stuff alongside it, causing conflicts. If they even bring more of their games to say Google (Android) and Apple (iOS/MacOS), they would have a much easier time getting Game Pass into their ecosystems, as well, especially if MS allowed their respective storefronts onto Xbox & Windows.

Which gets cancelled first, Fable or perfect Dark? Im going with Perfect Dark.

Hopefully neither :/.

Rivet! Good to see you!

Also, despite some on Twitter trying to explain this performance away using the guidance.... most on Installbase and most serious analysts admit that the lower hardware sales are a big red flag.

I also think Series S has to go...time to focus on Series X.

I have a feeling most GP growth is coming from PC and offering your best on another platform for almost free, that can hurt your platform...that could be hurting the value proposition of Xbox along with sow few exclusives.

Yeah GP on console is stagnant, we've seen Phil himself say it. So most of the growth's coming from PC but, as you kind of suggested, it's at no additional cost via PC and that's both because the hardware entry price might be cheaper (if a person already has a good enough PC), but also because it's cheaper there (no need to pay for online).

And also, considering PC actually gets some real timed Xbox exclusives (Flight Sim, Halo Wars, Gears Tactics, Age of Empires etc.) and perks like the RIOT stuff, AND you don't need to pay for online AND you get crossplay with Xbox owners and a better Discord experience (since the "real" app is on Windows/PC)....all of that creates inter-ecosystem conflict between two product types Microsoft want to simultaneously push to customers.
 
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That's actually a pretty good job considering they've been shitting the bed on the software differentiation side (relative to its main direct competitor) for a decade plus (10 + years)... not a trivial number. The brand should have cratered harder a long time ago. Sony's marketing is too lackadaisical to go for the kill with direct war marketing.... year after year. We only got to see a bit of that at the beginning on the PS4 era only to fizzle out... instead of what should have happened - relentless push until Xbox is put out of their misery. Whatever I guess. Bunch of folks with "next-gen systems" still gaming in 720p/1080p in 2023.
 
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