If an interviewer asks Spencer or Nadella if Xbox Series is still ahead and they don't give a definitive answer, then it would be cause to accept that it fell behind.
I could agree to that, but it depends on when the interview came. Say they give that interview in June, and give a definitive answer. Well, we would know that by June, launch-aligned, Series is tracking ahead of XBO, but I'm only particularly interested in if it was tracking ahead, at, or behind XBO as of January. A lot of things could happen between now and June to help them make up for a tracking deficit and start tracking ahead.
It's not lying, we just aren't privy to what Microsoft defines as "install base". The 2021 pie chart they shared also doesn't line up exactly with what sell through might be for PS5 and Switch.
If they're adding in stuff like PS3, VR, and Vita, then the numbers are straight BS anyway as Microsoft is massaging the comparison in such a way that you might as well question if Microsoft isn't also making their numbers lower by factoring out people that own both an S and X or something. If the comparison isn't the actual PS5+4 compared to XBS+1, then it's a meaningless exercise in company "this isn't technically a lie" speak.
At the very least, I think it's disingenuous and it makes the numbers being compared, basically worthless. Why even do the comparison if the methodologies for the two sets of numbers aren't like-for-like?
What would make those numbers they gave, particularly questionable to me though, is that they provided those numbers for regulators to look at, to show their market share compared to Sony and Nintendo, to gain favor in getting the ABK acquisition approved. If the numbers are being finessed in order to try getting more sympathy in that argument, I feel it's extremely disingenuous to do and invalidates the entire purpose and whatever information is provided.
As of 2020 anything Xbox One had in stock was sold through. COVID made everything sell out.
Regarding the rest, I'll just say that even if (probably) ROTW share drops in 2022, that doesn't mean it wasn't and still isn't much higher than before. There is growth there.
Right but I'm trying to ask what's a realistic estimate for ROTW growth from XBO to Series? They went from ~ 35% in 360 gen, to just under 25% in XBO gen. I get that Series are in more markets than XBO was and that Series had been tracking ahead of 360 for a good period of time (and likely still is TBH), but do you think ROTW makes up for the deficit for Series in Japan compared to 360 gen?
We also have Sony themselves saying they have seen "huge" (paraphrasing) growth in ROTW markets, including Europe. I'm drawn to conclude this means European markets aside from UK, because at least for 2022 we do have Chris Dring saying the hardware splits between the three systems there was like 60K - 80K, a pretty small margin.
For myself though, I see that margins have increased notably for PS5 in various European countries like Spain, Germany, Italy etc., Asian countries like Japan, China and India, and other places. I think one of the few ROTW markets where the two have been pretty competitive (I'm just going by what others mention) is Brazil, but I don't have much an idea on how big the Brazilian market actually is for gaming revenue when it comes to the Big 3.
Even so, given 2022 ultimately saw MS losing ground to Sony in market share, and that there isn't much a difference in what content was made available in non US/UK markets for Xbox comparatively, I don't see much a reason why they'd of seen massive growth in those markets outside of Sony having disastrous supply. And maybe for a select few of those ROTW markets, they never did improve supply in the back half of 2022 to levels comparable to US, UK, Japan etc. That's totally possible.
But by some 10%/15% swing to push ROTW suddenly to 40% share when it was under 25% share with XBO? A percentage even higher than 360? What's comparable between 360 and Xbox Series this gen that would appeal to ROTW markets at even that level, let alone 5% higher? Series S, I get it, it's cheap, but 360 was cheap while also being performant with PS3. Series S doesn't have that specific benefit. Series S has Game Pass, but the vast majority of the 2022 content I don't think would have done miracles for ROTW when it did nothing of the sort for the US, and that content being the same more or less across all markets. Not to mention, Sony still have PS+, they have the new tiers, they even still have PS4s in a lot of these markets and the platform itself still officially being supported. So even that nullifies a lot of Series S's supposed pricing & value advantages.
Also, to the whole thread, NPD posted this
https://www.npd.com/news/blog/2023/2022s-strong-finish-brings-optimism-to-2023/
The relevant part
I made two posts about this on Install Base here
https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...date-full-report-out.1311/page-10#post-133689
But basically what it boils down to is that you'd have to assume some real funky numbers regarding ASP and DE sales in order for PS5 December to not be less than November sales. My 1.4M PS5 estimate had Q4 revenue more than 2x over Q4 2021, and a more realistic number for December is closer to 1.2M.
Again, the logic is in those two posts at the link, so if you disagree I'd like to see why.
No disagreement here TBH; if it's 1.2 million it's 1.2 million. Maybe they deprioritized the US just a tad for December to make sure other parts of the world got sufficient PS5 supply, like Japan for example. It is what it is
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