NPD December 2022 (PS5 #1 Revenue, Switch #1 Units, Xbox @ $200 Forever #3, Leaked LTD up to Nov 2022: 10.6m PS5 / 8.7m Xbox)

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I'd love to see any of you guys attempt to work out NPD results with the little we get every month and actually be close

My estimates were perfectly fine up until September where PS5 started improving better than I thought, and November was a literal shot in the dark as there was nothing to work with. I've never been confident on those November estimates but they were what I thought to be the most probable. No one expected Xbox to be that low and even then, all of my other PS5 estimates were within 10% (June and August 3%, July and September 7%, 10% November) except October at 12%.

Similarly my Xbox estimates were super close up to September, having it exactly correct in June, 5% and 4% off in July and August, 10% in September, and 16% in October. Clearly September was a shift in PS5's direction greater than what I expected. My estimates had PS5 continually gaining share up to a peak of 59% in September, but a fall towards 56% in October in November. How am I supposed to know that Xbox just flopped in the holidays when that was never the trend at any point ever?

When Aqua last shared numbers in May, this is what I had worked out each month prior to her leak, compared to what the real results were

Xbox
Jan: 320,000 (Off 13K)
Feb: 300,000 (Off 39K)
Mar: 500,000 (Off 11K)
Apr: 280,000 (Off 13K)
May: 210,000 (Off 33K)

PS5
Jan: 370,000 (Off 1K)
Feb: 150,000 (Off 22K)
Mar: 260,000 (Off 22K)
Apr: 230,000 (Off 4K)
May: 120,000 (Off 1K)

So I don't want to hear anything about me tending to underestimate PS5. From January to August 2022 I was near spot on every month. Xbox is harder to get right when calculating units and revenue as the Series S and X splits vary much more than the stagnant PS5 to DE split. I just over estimated Series S somewhat before September.

No bad feelings Welfare; FWIW I respect what you do. While your Xbox numbers may sometimes skew a tad too high, at least you do correct them and don't get ridiculous about it. Something I absolutely cannot say for the VGChartz guy, where they grossly overestimate Xbox numbers time and again (and constantly underestimate Sony & Nintendo ones).

Just a question: what amount of Xbox's market share would you say US & UK account for? I've assumed it's 60%, but it might be slightly more. In the 360 gen those two markets combined accounted for slightly over 65% of 360's total sales. Given XBO did even worst in some international markets than 360, I guess one could say it's even higher now or at best would be between 60% and 65%.

We don't have any solid December numbers or either system, but apparently someone else on InstalledBase guessimated 900K for Xbox Series in US. Don't know what their methodology is, but I'm just leaning with that. Unfortunately we don't have UK numbers, but do you think throwing 2 million in sales for Xbox in that market for 2022 is being overly generous, considering the time it took them to reach 1 million (end of 2021) and that 2022 was a less eventful year for them than 2021? TBH I was just being charitable but it might be better to shift half of that to ROTW combined markets (China, India, South Africa, Egypt etc.).

There's little reason to think Xbox has seen any substantial uptick in any of these places; maybe they're doing a bit better in Brazil but I don't see how that would account for much. So with all that said, what's the probability you'd say Series are currently tracking behind XBO? Because IIRC that reached 18 million "activated" devices by January 2016 (its 26th month) and no matter how you calculate Serie's numbers, even with being overly generous on UK and giving ROTW 40% of the system's market share, you still come up short of 18 million.

But I'd just like to hear your thoughts on that, if interested. And Aqua's a godsend for the leak, even if we don't get December's. It's helped a LOT.
 
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XBS sell through should be over 18M. Ampere said 7.7M were sold in 2021 (total 10.5M) and US sales alone are going to be up by at least 500K (assuming the lowest Xbox in December got is 700K), and we know Japan is up over 2021 and Europe is basically flat. 8M would be a low ball and that would put Ampere LTD at 18.5M, more likely touching 19M which would put XBS about equal to XB1 launch aligned in sell through.

See, this is what I'm having trouble believing. The LTD figures provided in that leak I assume also include 2021 & 2020 numbers for both systems. Going back to 360, US alone accounted for at least 60% of total sales; it and UK accounted for slightly over 65%. Meaning ROTW only factored into 35% of the rest of those sales for that generation.

XBO had a slide in quite a few ROTW markets compared to 360, such as Japan. FWIW, Series is available in more markets, such as China, but the numbers there are pretty small all things considered. But considering the only non-US/UK market Xbox likely had any gains in was Brazil (and I can't imagine Brazil is pushing huge numbers for Xbox there, I'd probably say somewhere around Japan numbers but if there are actual numbers for the market I'd love to see them), that wouldn't be enough to suddenly shift ROTW to factoring any higher than 45% of Xbox's total sales, but in reality it's probably closer to 40% (and that's up 5%+ from the 360 generation).

Again, I just threw 2 million in for UK for 2022 alone, but chances are the amount sold there is notably less. Maybe more like 1.5 million? But I think you could still shift that to other ROTW markets and be fine. Thing is, when you run those numbers and extrapolate for ROTW, there's no way Series are statistically above XBO as of end of 2022. No methodology really gives you that. At best, they are maybe tracking about even with it in sold-through, and if they're ahead, it's by so little it might as well be considered in margin of error.

And that's with me being lenient to Xbox in terms of the UK numbers and giving ROTW a 40% share (even if it was less than 35% in 360 gen and probably about that much with XBO considering how MS deemphasized ROTW that generation...when you look at XBO US estimates vs. PS4 it kind of suggests as such). It's very realistic that they're tracking behind XBO at this point (or by end of 2022), unless they pulled off 1+ million for December.

Which is possible but...not a high probability they did it. We know they came in behind PS5 in unit sales, it's just a question of if the gap was a massive as November because if so...that just kind of solidifies them tracking behind XBO at this point, IMHO.
 
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anonpuffs

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See, this is what I'm having trouble believing. The LTD figures provided in that leak I assume also include 2021 & 2020 numbers for both systems. Going back to 360, US alone accounted for at least 60% of total sales; it and UK accounted for slightly over 65%. Meaning ROTW only factored into 35% of the rest of those sales for that generation.

XBO had a slide in quite a few ROTW markets compared to 360, such as Japan. FWIW, Series is available in more markets, such as China, but the numbers there are pretty small all things considered. But considering the only non-US/UK market Xbox likely had any gains in was Brazil (and I can't imagine Brazil is pushing huge numbers for Xbox there, I'd probably say somewhere around Japan numbers but if there are actual numbers for the market I'd love to see them), that wouldn't be enough to suddenly shift ROTW to factoring any higher than 45% of Xbox's total sales, but in reality it's probably closer to 40% (and that's up 5%+ from the 360 generation).

Again, I just threw 2 million in for UK for 2022 alone, but chances are the amount sold there is notably less. Maybe more like 1.5 million? But I think you could still shift that to other ROTW markets and be fine. Thing is, when you run those numbers and extrapolate for ROTW, there's no way Series are statistically above XBO as of end of 2022. No methodology really gives you that. At best, they are maybe tracking about even with it in sold-through, and if they're ahead, it's by so little it might as well be considered in margin of error.

And that's with me being lenient to Xbox in terms of the UK numbers and giving ROTW a 40% share (even if it was less than 35% in 360 gen and probably about that much with XBO considering how MS deemphasized ROTW that generation...when you look at XBO US estimates vs. PS4 it kind of suggests as such). It's very realistic that they're tracking behind XBO at this point (or by end of 2022), unless they pulled off 1+ million for December.

Which is possible but...not a high probability they did it. We know they came in behind PS5 in unit sales, it's just a question of if the gap was a massive as November because if so...that just kind of solidifies them tracking behind XBO at this point, IMHO.
Isn't it possible that xbox has driven higher adoption rates in rotw due to the value proposition of gamepass? I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 60% US+britain now
 
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Isn't it possible that xbox has driven higher adoption rates in rotw due to the value proposition of gamepass? I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 60% US+britain now
That should be showed in some RotW sale info, no? But most countries shows flat or in decline… well there is Japan but the number are not impacting to the overall sales.

It is really hard to believe US become smaller to Xbox without any evidence… I should believe US continue being the main driver sales for Xbox (> 50%).
 

anonpuffs

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That should be showed in some RotW sale info, no? But most countries shows flat or in decline… well there is Japan but the number are not impacting to the overall sales.

It is really hard to believe US become smaller to Xbox without any evidence… I should believe US continue being the main driver sales for Xbox (> 50%).
That's true. We all know if microsoft were growing in some markets they'd be shouting from the rooftops, like they did with Japan and PC.
 
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There you can see, you haven't played the game. The slow-mo is an effect of some armors or ability, only triggered by specific actions (e.g. perfect parry). There are builds around this ability, one of many different ways to customize your play style.

Nothing dumbed down.

And on Give Me The God of War difficulty, GOW is a lot harder than Elden Ring (which DID go the casual way in respect to its prequels).
Yeah, whatever.
 
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Isn't it possible that xbox has driven higher adoption rates in rotw due to the value proposition of gamepass? I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 60% US+britain now

Strongly doubt it. What games are really coming out on Game Pass Day 1 that attract the ROTW? Especially in regards to bigger 3P AAA releases?

I think whatever value Game Pass has in most markets, it's probably mainly in regards to acting as a nice backlog of older releases, available for relatively cheap. But that can directly apply to PS+ as well, which depending on where you're at and the tier vs. Game Pass tier, is actually cheaper. And I don't think gaming tastes in ROTW markets is going to gravitate to Western indies any more than than it does here in America or parts of Europe, even less so probably.

Honestly the whole thing about Game Pass's value proposition is mostly a myth hyped up through marketing and the fact Sony doesn't really push PS+ nearly as hard, even though they've had some Day 1 releases too like Stray, VF4: Ultimate Showdown and Shadow Warrior 3. For me the big selling point of Game Pass was all 1P MS AAA games Day 1 but, well, they've been struggling to deliver on that for some years now.
 

anonpuffs

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Strongly doubt it. What games are really coming out on Game Pass Day 1 that attract the ROTW? Especially in regards to bigger 3P AAA releases?

I think whatever value Game Pass has in most markets, it's probably mainly in regards to acting as a nice backlog of older releases, available for relatively cheap. But that can directly apply to PS+ as well, which depending on where you're at and the tier vs. Game Pass tier, is actually cheaper. And I don't think gaming tastes in ROTW markets is going to gravitate to Western indies any more than than it does here in America or parts of Europe, even less so probably.

Honestly the whole thing about Game Pass's value proposition is mostly a myth hyped up through marketing and the fact Sony doesn't really push PS+ nearly as hard, even though they've had some Day 1 releases too like Stray, VF4: Ultimate Showdown and Shadow Warrior 3. For me the big selling point of Game Pass was all 1P MS AAA games Day 1 but, well, they've been struggling to deliver on that for some years now.
I think that's what attracts rotw. A lot of places still have ps2 and ps3 circulating due to the low cost. I'm thinking cheap access to new games that aren't accessible via piracy could be a big draw in markets that have the type of average income that would require a week's salary to buy a new AAA game.
 

Heisenberg007

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See, this is what I'm having trouble believing. The LTD figures provided in that leak I assume also include 2021 & 2020 numbers for both systems. Going back to 360, US alone accounted for at least 60% of total sales; it and UK accounted for slightly over 65%. Meaning ROTW only factored into 35% of the rest of those sales for that generation.

XBO had a slide in quite a few ROTW markets compared to 360, such as Japan. FWIW, Series is available in more markets, such as China, but the numbers there are pretty small all things considered. But considering the only non-US/UK market Xbox likely had any gains in was Brazil (and I can't imagine Brazil is pushing huge numbers for Xbox there, I'd probably say somewhere around Japan numbers but if there are actual numbers for the market I'd love to see them), that wouldn't be enough to suddenly shift ROTW to factoring any higher than 45% of Xbox's total sales, but in reality it's probably closer to 40% (and that's up 5%+ from the 360 generation).

Again, I just threw 2 million in for UK for 2022 alone, but chances are the amount sold there is notably less. Maybe more like 1.5 million? But I think you could still shift that to other ROTW markets and be fine. Thing is, when you run those numbers and extrapolate for ROTW, there's no way Series are statistically above XBO as of end of 2022. No methodology really gives you that. At best, they are maybe tracking about even with it in sold-through, and if they're ahead, it's by so little it might as well be considered in margin of error.

And that's with me being lenient to Xbox in terms of the UK numbers and giving ROTW a 40% share (even if it was less than 35% in 360 gen and probably about that much with XBO considering how MS deemphasized ROTW that generation...when you look at XBO US estimates vs. PS4 it kind of suggests as such). It's very realistic that they're tracking behind XBO at this point (or by end of 2022), unless they pulled off 1+ million for December.

Which is possible but...not a high probability they did it. We know they came in behind PS5 in unit sales, it's just a question of if the gap was a massive as November because if so...that just kind of solidifies them tracking behind XBO at this point, IMHO.
You are being way too lenient with the UK numbers. Xbox hasn't hit the 2M mark in the UK yet and have been pacing behind boh XBO and X360 there. We'll know once it hits 2M in the UK as we always do.

You're currently overestimating XBS in the UK by ~200,000-300,000 units.
 

Heisenberg007

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I think that's what attracts rotw. A lot of places still have ps2 and ps3 circulating due to the low cost. I'm thinking cheap access to new games that aren't accessible via piracy could be a big draw in markets that have the type of average income that would require a week's salary to buy a new AAA game.
If Xbox isn't doing well in its strongest markets, there is no reason to believe it's doing any better in ROTW. Even in Japan, it's tracking behind X360, despite a smaller and lower-priced console.
 

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aw man, fucking Rizzo, i am a unbashful Muppet kid.
 
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ethomaz

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If Xbox isn't doing well in its strongest markets, there is no reason to believe it's doing any better in ROTW. Even in Japan, it's tracking behind X360, despite a smaller and lower-priced console.
I think the narrative Series is doing better in RotW than US born when US numbers were not high enough to support the 20m sold.

There is no evidence that RotW > US or that Series is doing better outside US than previous consoles.

The base is due MS saying in last quarter (end of September) that Series was their fastest console selling based in shipment but I’m not sure if after September it is anymore.

Looking at end of December Series is probably behind XB1 already even in shipment and 360 start to move ahead after 4th year.
 

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Since month 1, XBS was behind XB1 in both the US and UK.

Since Q2 2021, Microsoft said XBS was outpacing all other Xbox's. Up to September 2022 that's still the case (they haven't updated it since but that doesn't mean it's fallen behind. Currently undetermined) and this points to XBS having much better sales outside of its 2 key markets than ever before.
 
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Since month 1, XBS was behind XB1 in both the US and UK.

Since Q2 2021, Microsoft said XBS was outpacing all other Xbox's. Up to September 2022 that's still the case (they haven't updated it since but that doesn't mean it's fallen behind. Currently undetermined) and this points to XBS having much better sales outside of its 2 key markets than ever before.
I imagine you believe Series is still selling better in US than PS5 because MS haven’t updated since 😂
 
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<Sigh> @Heisenberg007 we might have some egg on our face 😞 Don't worry though, all our work still means something 😉

So...about these numbers....Welfare might be right. At least in my case, I was factoring ROTW's numbers based on the US/UK figures, but messed up the scaling. It's not that ROTW is 40% of the US/UK numbers...it should be that US/UK represent 60% of the total.

In other words, if US/UK are at best 11.236 million, and ROTW accounts for 40% of Xbox market share (at best), then the total should be 8.98 for ROTW, not half that. Meaning sold-through by end of 2022 would be at 20.22 million. Meaning in the best-case scenario, Welfare is correct; they would be tracking ahead of XBO, by about 2 million in that scenario.

However, realistically ROTW would only account for upwards 40%; again, it accounted for less than 35% in the 360 gen, and probably even less than that in XBO gen considering how badly MS did in non US/UK markets. So a percentage gain of upwards 8% to reach 40% is very optimistic. However, I have reasons to suspect ROTW is not even accounting for 40%, because if it were, and Xbox Series were in fact tracking ahead of XBO by over 2 million, why did MS not provide a PR statement in their earnings call earlier this week?

ANY good news on that front would be worth sharing; they did it with Game Pass growth despite not giving numbers there either so, why no statement Series are tracking ahead of XBO? I think it's pretty simple to figure the reason why, is because they aren't, and that's probably because ROTW isn't close to 40% of the market share. The lack of a PR statement on Xbox sales tracking ahead of XBO still leads me to think, then, that they lost a LOT of ROTW market in XBO gen.

The source I'll be using here is Statista (a couple people have told me they use VGChartz for some numbers so it's possible these estimates could be too high, but generally they seem like a good source, them and VGSales): for XBO gen they give 31.58 million in US and 12.82 million in Europe. Combined that is 44.4 million. Meanwhile, ROTW only accounts for 6.02 combined. Percentage-wise, that would mean ROTW share dropped from > 35% in 360 gen, to under 15% in XBO, meaning US & Europe accounted for over 85% of XBO's sales.

Now, I can't find UK's numbers specifically, so we'll have to go with 360's UK sales, which according to this source were 8.4 million lifetime. Meanwhile, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) totals were 13.7 million. I think it is probably fair to say Europe accounted for at least 60% of those sales, so that is 8.2 million. From this, we can say that the UK accounted for over 50% of all European 360 sales. So what we can do from here is take the 12.82 million European figure for XBO and cut it by 51%, that will probably give us a low-end for XBO's UK numbers if they didn't drop there percentage wise relative rest of Europe that gen. That gives ~6.54 million XBOs in UK. Add the other 6.28 million remaining to ROTW and that brings ROTW (including non-UK Europe) to 12.3 million. Subtract 6.28 million from 44.4 million and that gives a US & UK number of 38.12 million. 12.3 million of 38.12 million is roughly 32.5%. Meaning ROTW (non US/UK) accounted for around 32.5% of XBO's sales.

So let's say Xbox Series have in fact seen some growth in ROTW...realistically how much do you expect that to have been? ROTW was slightly under 35% in 360 gen, ~ 32.5% in XBO gen. That's a 2.5% difference. They're not going to suddenly get a 10%, even 8% reversal two years into the new generation when their 2022 was very weak and we have some evidence from select non US/UK markets showing just how low totals actually are. At best, ROTW would probably have seen a 5% gain, or up to 37.5%. And with that, we can figure where things actually are for the Series consoles.

Realistically, UK sales are at absolute best probably around 1.86 - 2.1 (maybe 2.2) million. Again, XBO did 6.54 million in UK, that's an average of 934.2K units per year. 360 did 8.4 million, an average of 1.05 million per year. We got the general statement Xbox Series are "tracking ahead of XBO" back early 2022 but MS never specified regional breakdown. For all we know, Series could be tracking behind XBO in the UK market and other parts of Europe, but ahead of it in the US. It's all a crapshoot, because they don't provide real meaningful numbers. Anyway...adding the peak of that range (2.1 million) to the leaked US figures gives 10.836 million. ROTW accounting for a peak 37.5% of the rest of the share gives a total of 18.96 million sold-through by end of 2022. However, if the UK peak is closer to 1.86 million, then it reduces US/UK totals to 10.596 million, and total numbers to 18.543 million sold-through by end of 2022.

Yes those are both cases where they are (slightly) ahead of XBO launch-aligned but then let's look at the obvious circumstantial evidence. Why were there no PR figures given by Microsoft at the recent earnings call, noting Series are tracking ahead of XBO, to soften the otherwise bad news on hardware sales decline? It doesn't take much to figure this out: they gave no such news, because most likely, their numbers are lower than the ones I just gave. Meaning It's either the UK numbers are much lower than I gave, or the ROTW total is lower than I afforded, or some combination of both factors.

Any way you slice it, that is the most likely scenario: they are probably tracking behind XBO launch-aligned either way, due to lack of any mention of tracking ahead in the earnings call where such news would have helped offset the bad news of hardware revenue decline. We can talk about how far behind they are tracking relative to XBO; personally I would say not terribly far behind. But the realistic possibility is that they are in fact tracking behind, and the other sources you are pointing to claiming Xbox hit 20+ million months ago or whatever, are doing the same estimates we're doing here in this thread, working with a lot of the same data & trends. Of course, some biases may lead to bullish emphasis on certain things over others; I was a bit guilty of that myself and didn't scale earlier numbers correctly, but I've gone back and fixed that with this post.

Even having done that, though, the fact is with what info and data we can find, going back to 360 even, there is little reason to think between that and circumstantial evidence that Series are tracking ahead of XBO. If I had to take a guess, the UK numbers are probably closer to 1.65 million, and ROTW is probably closer to 36% of Series sales (36.5% max) rather than 37.5%. That would have put Xbox Series sold-through at 17.863 million by end of 2022, just slightly behind XBO. The lack of ANY mention of console sales at least tracking ahead of XBO on Tuesday really more or less seals the deal that they are behind, even if it's by less than 200K. If they can get the 1P content (AA and AAA) coming regularly this year, get more Series X units out there, do better marketing/advertising and whatnot, they can probably start tracking ahead of XBO again and maybe comfortably so deeper into the year.

However, that's a big "if" and they will have to do a LOT to make it happen, especially considering Sony & Nintendo have lots of big guns coming this year, and big 3P titles are dropping this year too (given Sony have marketing deals with most of the big ones, that doesn't help Xbox, and generally the platform that's already better off, benefits much more from multiplats anyway). None of them are standing still for Microsoft, so MS have to go above and beyond.

Can they do it? I guess we'll see.
 
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Heisenberg007

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Yeah, I figured as such, could even be giving them 400K or 500K too many. Which would probably bring their LTD as of end of 2022 down to 15.73 million sold-through.

But when I look at a number like that, it just seems so low, and so far behind XBO, it's like I actively try refusing to believe it. But considering how long it too them to hit 1 million in UK, the unlikely scenario they doubled that in a weak year, and the fact ROTW is probably 40% of Xbox's market share, when you do the math that's the number you get. Maybe those 500K can be given to ROTW markets, but that still only bumps up the total to 16.23 million, still way behind XBO.

No matter how some people want to cut it, it's not a good look.
Is ROTW 40%? My understanding is that UK and USA make up 70-75% of their userbase, so ROTW (apart from UK and USA) would be 25-30%.

According to Statista, Xbox 360 sales by region looks like this:
  • USA = 47.17 million (55%)
  • Europe = 25.08 million (30%)
  • Japan = 1.66 million (2%)
  • Rest of the world = 11.9 million(14%)
  • Total = 85.8 million
Europe is 30%; splitting it 50-50 in UK and EU countries is reasonably safe.

If we're only counting US and UK, 70% is a safe bet. 40% for ROTW is quite high. Also, Xbox S|X is struggling in Japan, compared to X360. That'd put the total sales numbers even down. It hit 400K recently in Japan.
 
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Is ROTW 40%. My understanding is that UK and USA make up 70-75% of their userbase, so ROTW (apart from UK and USA) would be 25-30%.

According to Statista, Xbox 360 sales by region looks like this:
  • USA = 47.17 (55%)
  • Europe = 25.08 (30%)
  • Japan = 1.66 (2%)
  • Rest of the world = 11.9 (14%)
  • Total = 85.8
Europe is 30%; splitting it 50-50 in UK and EU countries is reasonably safe.

If we're only counting US and UK, 70% is a safe bet. 40% for ROTW is quite high. Also, Xbox S|X is struggling in Japan, compared to X360. That'd put the total sales numbers even down. It hit 400K recently in Japan.

Yeah, US & Europe as a whole account the the vast majority of Xbox sales, even just US & UK. Actually appreciate those 360 #s you have; the Wikipedia source I had listed EMEA as 13.7 million and I took that to include non-UK European countries. But the numbers don't really add up that way. 47.17 million + 13.7 million still leaves at least 25 million unaccounted for which definitely would not have come from Asia & Latin America territories, even combined. I did end up factoring total 360 numbers anyway but didn't quite attribute the European share correctly. So I guess I should readjust some things from even the last post, then...

If UK specifically was 8.4 million of the European total for 360, that's roughly 33.5%. So the other 16.68 million can be added to ROTW, bumping that total to 30.18 million (I threw Japan in there, too). So for 360 gen, non US/UK markets accounted for slightly over 35% of total sales (35.5%). So you're right, 40% is too high even for 360 gen. But it got MUCH worst for ROTW percentage last gen. Taking the same source, total sales global for XBO were 50.54 million. US sales roughly around 31.58 million of those, Europe being 12.82 million, ROTW being only 6.02 million.

So we already know UK was roughly 33.5% of total Europe sales, at the very LEAST they also accounted for that last gen, but in reality I think they accounted for more, so that's why I gave them 50/50. You still get the general figure I gave in the last post (~12.3 ROTW non US/UK), but ROTW percentage dropped SHARPLY from 35.5% in 360 gen to just 24.5% in XBO gen (just realized I messed up my percentage in the previous post for this part, correcting it now). That's an 11% decline for ROTW's share in Xbox sales gen-over-gen.

This more or less helps affirm that they really are tracking behind XBO now with Series. Even assuming a 5.5% gain in ROTW markets over XBO still puts them 5.5% behind 360 in ROTW territories when talking sales share. Again, we have the leaked US NPD numbers. Realistic estimates for the UK Series numbers by end of 2022 would probably be between 1.625 million - 1.86 million. ROTW accounting for the other 30% (again, just assuming they grew 5.5% for ROTW share over XBO generation). That still gives a best peak of "only" 16.95 million sold-through by end of 2022.

Basically, had to go back and correct some methodology, for sure. But even correcting that on my end, and getting some 360 & XBO figures (global, regional) to help figure out regional market share amounts (including changes), having the leaked NPD sales totals, historical numbers, and some circumstantial evidence (MS sales estimates provided to appease regulators, lack of Series sales PR at the earnings call, etc.), and still being somewhat generous to both Series UK sales and ROTW share gains gen-over-gen....we somehow STILL end up at clearly less than 18 million sold-through by end-of-2022!!

All of this just to say the obvious: they're tracking behind XBO, and probably have for a few months by now at the very least. This is just to say where they're currently at; personally I'm not saying they will sell less than XBO lifetime, or continue tracking behind. Anything can technically happen. But it's always best to have the facts out there so we can know with some certain probability where they are at realistically, even if MS tries their hardest to obfuscate actual numbers.