PlayStation will win this generation in the next 6 months. Here's why.

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Bernd Lauert

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If, let's say, PlayStation has 45%, Nintendo has 30%, and Xbox has 20%, won't you say that PlayStation has won the generation?

I think that 50% market share is a good OKR for internal performance and evaluating how Jimbo has performed and expanded PlayStation. It won't necessarily be a good metric to see how PlayStation has compared to Xbox this generation (which is the main point of my post/prediction).
Yeah, in that case it would mean that Playstation has won (and clearly dominated) the generation.

Just for reference, the split for CY 2021 is 44% Playstation, 29% Xbox and 27% Nintendo.
 
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Heisenberg007

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Yeah, in that case it would mean that Playstation has won (and clearly dominated) the generation.

Just for reference, the split for CY 2021 is 44% Playstation, 29% Xbox and 27% Nintendo.
That was just an example.

I'm assuming you're quoting revenue numbers? That could be one of the metrics to measure the performance of each company, but revenue never paints the full picture and cannot be the sole way to judge the companies -- especially with the recent trend of aggressive acquisitions.
 

ksdixon

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Yes sir :(

If I want to add something to this discussion, I think it's nothing but some elaborate hopium on op start, the series consoles are already tracking faster than the last generation, I think this will be closer to the PS3 360 than the last one.
The TV app for GP or chromecast like xbox dongle should help MS along. No need to purchase an S or X, not chained to a PC. If MS don't close the £1 GP trick, or perhaps that family plan takes off... I could seem them gaining a lot of casual game players whom only buy the odd five games a year (your fifa/pes, cod/battlefield, asscreed crowd). Exploit £1 trick, "set and forget" the subscription. See: sticking kid in front of Netflix subscription to watch Pepper Pig. Removed barrier console entry, court casual gamers.

Xbox could perhaps be a dangerous threat, if only by sheer convergeance being the "also run" platform, rather than competing with game quality where they could become a respected competitor.
 

Bernd Lauert

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That was just an example.

I'm assuming you're quoting revenue numbers? That could be one of the metrics to measure the performance of each company, but revenue never paints the full picture and cannot be the sole way to judge the companies -- especially with the recent trend of aggressive acquisitions.
That's the standard way to evaluate market share. That's also what Sony means when they target 50% market share. They want 50% revenue of all the Big Three.
 

Remember_Spinal

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I do think sony has a lot up their sleeve that will be revealed over the next 6 months.

More Next gen looking games, announcements of multiplayer and new IP, PSVR2, and yeah…stock issues slowly being sorted. Its all coming together
 

Loy310

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Good post, but i think we are at the point where the 3 plat/pubs are so successful in their own lane that you really cant look at it like its a race to the finish line anymore.

Sony needs to work on their sub service.

MS needs to work on being consistent with 1st party games.

And nintendo needs to work on bringing their titles to PC.
 
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Heisenberg007

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That's the standard way to evaluate market share. That's also what Sony means when they target 50% market share. They want 50% revenue of all the Big Three.
That only paints half the picture.

For example, if one company buys 10 other companies and merges all that revenue under one banner to capture > 50% revenue market share but continuously nets a growing loss year after year, that won't be success story.
 

Sircaw

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They already won.
i think they are in the driving seat but he generation is long and Microsoft have some excellent games still to come.

Do i think they will overtake Sony, probably note, but they will keep sony on their toes, which is a good thing for us.
 

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Kokoloko

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Just a quick question, how do you measure the "win"? Just consoles sales? Doesn't seem like a very good metric when both Playstation and Xbox are pivoting heavily into multiplatform, including PC.

Console sales, Software sales, Profit?

I don’t think Xbox is number 1 in any of those
 

Kokoloko

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Yes sir :(

If I want to add something to this discussion, I think it's nothing but some elaborate hopium on op start, the series consoles are already tracking faster than the last generation, I think this will be closer to the PS3 360 than the last one.

Maybe it will be closer, it should be. But Series tracking a bit faster than X1 doesn’t mean too much yet.
X1 was also selling faster than 360, but it ended up 25-30+million less sales than 360.

2023 will be a huge turning point year for Xbox. If Starfield reviews well and the other games like Hellblade, Perfect Dark etc it could keep that momentum.
And they might have some other big sellers like the next Doom, Quake, Avowed, Gears. I doubt there will be another Halo, Elder scrolls 6 or Fallout 5 this generation or at least 2025, which might be too late to make a difference to the generation

The 360 generation also had alot of advantages for Xbox.
-It released a year ahead of PS3
-Was cheaper
-Had better 3rd party development.
-Had a much better online infrastructure and store. It took online gaming, dlc, indies to a new level for consoles.
It had a bunch of Playstation centric titles on the Xbox and away from Playstation for the first time. ( DMC, Final Fantasy 13, Tekken etc )
- Had alot of good 3rd party exclusive deals, like MS was the first company to pay for timed DLC with Call of Duty lol
-It also had Halo 3 and Gears

-PS3 also launched horribly and very expensive

Most of those points don’t count anymore.
Stock issues have probably made it closer than it should be atm, but 2023/2024 could be where Xbox makes some proper progress with Starfield and the other exclusives. But its gonna have a hard time against Spiderman 2
 
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IntentionalPun

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Sony was destined to "win" the generation before it started.

But that's a pretty stupid metric anyways... we'll have to see how MS's gaming business grows vs. Sony's. It might catch up a bit or it might fall farther behind.

The relative success of the 2 businesses is far from decided at this point for the "generation."

We just know, with about as much certainty as possible, that Sony will sell more consoles and make more money.

That's a pretty boring way to look at an industry with such a clear leader.
 

Old Gamer

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PC ports of Horizon Zero Dawn, GoW 2018, Spider-Man and Spider-Man, Miles Morales, TLOU expands their fanbase making some of these PC
LOL no. If anything, those releases made sure PC gamers won't ever consider buying a Playstation again. Now, they know the biggest games are coming to PC.
 

nominedomine

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They won this gen in 2014 when Phil Spencer was put in charge of Xbox.

Following a generation where the Xbox was completely outclassed in every way they somehow managed to open the new gen with two extremely pathetic years once again, there is no coming back from that.

Xbox was completely unprepared for this gen and it shows. The Series S and Gamepass strategies were very shortsighted and the cracks are already showing.
 
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PropellerEar

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LOL no. If anything, those releases made sure PC gamers won't ever consider buying a Playstation again. Now, they know the biggest games are coming to PC.
I know one PCMR guy who bought PS5(his first console) to play HFW, after playing HZD on PC.
But probably not a common occurrence.
 
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