So far, this generation has played out very similarly to the previous generation. And if you remember, this was the time period (~20 months after launch) that PlayStation started widening the gap, which then culminated in a landslide victory.
I believe PlayStation is about to bury Xbox once again and win this generation, and this will all play out in the next 6 months. Here's why.
That's gonna ruffle some feathers to say the least x3
1. Console sales
Selling more consoles has been the biggest challenge for both console manufacturers, and it is mostly because of supply issues. While Xbox's demand and supply are relatively more in equilibrium now, PlayStation's demand still outdoes supply by a fair margin. PlayStation has been on the back foot because of limited supply.
That's about to change.
Around March 2022,
Sony forecasted to sell 18 million PS5 units between April 2022 and March 2023. From April to June, they sold 2.4 million units, an average of
0.8 million units sold per month.
The interesting part is that Sony did not change its forecast for the rest of the fiscal year, which means Sony is confident in supplying and selling 15.6 million units before March 31, 2023. That is an average of
1.73 million units per month. That's more than double what Sony has manufactured so far.
On the other hand, Xbox has run into its own
supply issues that would last throughout 2022 and even 2023. This is after having a good period when they manufactured lots of consoles at the start of 2022.
Assuming it all plays out like this, after March 2023, Sony would have sold more than 35 million PS5s, while Xbox would be around 19 million consoles (based on current reported and estimated sales data). A ratio of almost 2:1, similar to last gen.
I'm guessing Sony have gotten chip priority, but it could also be the whole "chip priority" story at least the way certain people spun it, was always kind of BS. Earlier chip shortages would have definitely impacted both (and even Nintendo with the Switch), but maybe it was more a case Sony just revised orders for a certain period when weighing other aspects of the business, and Microsoft just independently decided to either increase their supply for that same period, or didn't scale back on their order capacity.
It doesn't have to really be the case of Microsoft outbuying Sony on chips for the early half of the year the way some have tried framing it (because by that logic, wouldn't MS be increasing their own production numbers for the rest of the FY? Because it seems like they're either expecting flat growth or even negative growth on hardware numbers but I wouldn't know how far in advance these companies pay for their chips).
But anyway, while it might not be THAT big a gap, I can easily see Xbox sitting somewhere at 20-22 million by end of FY2022, and PS5 at or above 35 million by the same time, which is significant. The only reason I doubt Xbox would be as low as 19 million is because I think they'll have somewhat improved supply for the holiday season, especially in NA, and Xbox traditionally does pretty well during Black Friday and Christmas shopping periods. So that should help their numbers some.
As for where they are currently at though, it's really hard to say. People keep saying 16 million and maybe they're at that point NOW, but when the only source for MS's numbers is VGChartz, knowing they've already overestimated MS's numbers in the past, they could be at 16 million sold-through or sold-in (to retailers), or 15 million sold-through or sold-in. There's really no way to say.
2. Software
PlayStation has been doing very well in terms of first- and third-party software, and it's going to get surprisingly better very soon.
They already have lots of momentum with:
- Horizon Forbidden West
- Gran Turismo 7
- Elden Ring
- Spider-Man Miles Morales
- Ghost of Tsushima
And very soon, they will have big juggernauts like:
- The Last of Us Remake
- God of War Ragnarok
These two games will play a key role in Q4.
In addition, there are big third-party titles that PlayStation is associated with:
- Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
- Avatar
- Hogwart's Legacy
- Callisto Protocol
- Valkyrie Elysium
Then comes 2023 which brings giants like:
- Spider-Man 2
- Final Fantasy XVI
- Final Fantasy VII Remake - Part 2
- TLOU Online
Xbox could have shown some resistance with Starfield, but that delay could not have come at a worse time for Xbox. Now it's an open field for PlayStation to sell lots and lots of consoles and game software.
Don't forget SFVI as well; Sony seem to have marketing rights to that and will at least have first access on the betas console-side. Same with RE4 Remake, where they also have marketing rights; these may both be 3P multiplats but console-wise PS will see the majority of brand association.
Even just looking at exclusives, tho it kind of sucks KOTOR Remake is basically in purgatory for the time being, PS5 still has a really solid line-up and most importantly all the games you listed are known quantities. Starfield didn't have the best showing and Bethesda have a reputation tho it's a spotty one these days. RedFall isn't really a known quantity; Forza will be quality but it won't do much for the Xbox brand that it hasn't already done in the past.
Outside of that they have maybe STALKER 2 but last I know that's a 3-month timed exclusive, and a few smaller indie games but PS5 will have quite a few on both fronts as well. So it's looking like in general PS5 has the software advantage for 2023 unless you like a ton of smaller indie games Day 1 in a subscription service, or are just a HUGE Bethesda nut, in which case I guess Xbox's lineup is maybe a bit more appealing. But I don't think the vast majority of gamers out there would go with that option.
3. Upcoming Surprises
To top it off, PlayStation will be able to gain a ton of momentum if they show what they have been cooking in a PlayStation Showcase this September. This is a huge advantage that PlayStation currently has over Xbox.
We already know the big games Xbox has in store, but with PlayStation, it's so exciting because we hardly know anything. At the very least, we have 12 new PlayStation IPs to look forward to.
And next-gen gameplay of Spider-Man 2 and Wolverine would make a huge difference to brand value and perception. Big sequels to games like Ghost of Tsushima 2 would also melt brains.
Of the 25 games in development, we only know about 4, which means we don't know about at least 84% of the games that PlayStation Studios have in development.
Yeah, one thing I think which has dampened the surprise factor for Xbox's exclusives is so many insiders have leaked tons of stuff on almost all of them. We've either got codenames, concept art, leaked screenshots or all three in some cases, WELL ahead of Microsoft officially showing them off.
For the casuals this doesn't mean much because they don't really follow gaming news, but it's the hardcore & core who bring the most hype and in turn help bring a lot of the attention to these games which casuals latch onto, and the leaks on the MS side have gotten kind of out of control.
Supposed insiders are now trying to pull the same game with Sony's stuff and I'm just beyond tired of it; they're actually sucking out the excitement from the announcement of these games and robbing the developers of their chance to reveal what they've worked so hard on.
4. Missing Pieces
Two things that PlayStation has been struggling with -- and where Xbox had an advantage and could gain a competitive edge this generation -- have been nullified by PlayStation.
- Multiplayer, live-service, and shooter games -- There are more than 10 games in development that belong to this category.
- Subscription service -- PS Plus has been making waves and was able to eliminate (or, at least, minimize) the huge Gamepass advantage that Xbox had going for it.
In addition, the upcoming 10+ TV Shows and Movies based on Playstation IPs can play a massive role in bringing new people to the PlayStation ecosystem.
On the MP/live-service side I wouldn't mind if Motorstorm came back, or Jet Moto, stuff like that. I know Sony have a lot of shooter IP but I'm not really big into FPS so MAG, Killzone, Resistance etc. don't matter too much to me. Curious maybe about Warhawk, though.
Really curious to see what the subscription services side of things will bring. If they do Day 1 1P releases, it should probably be limited to smaller indie and AA games, but it could be a great boost to legacy IP getting new installments, remakes etc as they would have much smaller budgets anyway. It's why I still have some hope for a new UmJammer/Parappa, or Tomba!, etc.
5. Innovations
To top it all off, for people who prefer new and shiny stuff, PlayStation will be releasing PS VR 2 before March 2023. That would be a huge competitive advantage over Xbox which does not offer any games in this medium at all.
I'm still amazed that there is no official VR support for Xbox yet. Not even whitelisting for an existing VR headset. You would think it'd be something resolved by now with how many FPS games they have out or coming out.
Maybe they have something planned, but if the only way to play Xbox 1P games in VR is through PC then that makes the console even less of value IMO.
6. Acquisitions
Last but not least, we know that bigger acquisitions are coming that would help sway the momentum in PlayStation's favor even more.
I'm not the type to hype of acquisitions or put out dream buys or stuff like that, but there definitely are a lot of signs pointing to Square-Enix perhaps looking to deepen relations with at least one company out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sony sweeps in.
While I think a company like Sega would probably be better served under Sony or Nintendo if they had to be acquired, that's maybe the one Japanese-orientated acquisition (dev/pub wise, outside of Tango) which could be Microsoft's wheelhouse in the future...but they certainly wouldn't be able to make a buy right now and there's no telling what could happen between now and then.
I still think Kodakawa could be another company Sony is interested in, they're certainly affordable enough. Capcom could be one they would be interested in but it's probably one of the least likely as far as Japanese publishers are concerned. I'm not really too wild about potential Western companies, but I guess WB or Ubisoft would be potentials, as well as CDPR. Developer-wise it'd be a lot trickier; I genuinely think Ember Labs is one such company, as is Deviation Games. Arc System Works could be another possibility, same with Supermassive Games.
My Conclusion
My takeaway is that PlayStation has all its bases covered (VR, single-player games, multiplayer games), has enough momentum from the recent past (console sales advantage and successful software in Miles Morales, HFW, and GT7), and momentum to grab in the upcoming months (TLOU, God of War, PS VR 2) to seal the fate of this generation.
In addition, they have fixed their two biggest shortcomings: limited console supply and a Gamepass competitor.
I believe in the next six months, PlayStation will take an insurmountable lead over Xbox that will win them this generation quite comfortably and even more comprehensively than the PS4 generation.
I still think some of this is up in the air, and ultimately it's going to be just as much about gaming revenue as it is consoles sold (that's one reason Microsoft have made these massive acquisitions and why Sony is increasing focus on live-service games), but I agree with the general idea that the gap will definitely grow in PS5's favor sales-wise over the course of the next six to eight months.
If I were Microsoft, for that same time period I would focus on dissuading concerns over some of the currently announced new games (Everwild, State of Decay 3, Starfield, Perfect Dark etc.) with some official updates, teases, maybe even gameplay. Finally provide some gameplay of Hellblade II and Avowed. This is probably the time where actually showing how these games are shaping up will be their best option to retain goodwill not just with people on Xbox but gamers in general.
It's especially important considering they don't have any marketing deals with the big 3P AAA releases coming out during that timeframe, and 1P-wise they only have Starfield (could be excellent, could be mid, currently seems "alright" going off the Showcase), RedFall (could be anything) and Forza (known quantity, won't really do much for those not in the fanbase).