PlayStation will win this generation in the next 6 months. Here's why.

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adamsapple

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Sorry, I can't remember where I've seen this info about GP not making money really.
Maybe Sony said that

No, that's just one of those thing that only permeates on console-war twitter and spread on forums by most of the same folks for the most part.

Like the "sony template" and "sony is ded cause everything is coming to PC" kinda bogus meme level stuff.
 
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Meme Reaction GIF by Robert E Blackmon


It's already outlived Sega as a console maker and its only increasing in scale/scope and content/services production.

Outlived but less impact in terms of industry-pushing games, IMHO. I'd also say the high-end library from Sega's consoles (in terms of exclusives) are more timeless than the collective 1P from Microsoft's consoles.

MS's stuff has some high points tho like Halo 1 & 2, Forza Horizon, PGR are the first that come to mind I'd say were not just high quality but also had some obvious influence on other games in the industry.

Wish we had a timeline where Sega had even 1/10th of Microsoft money.
 
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Yobo

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The market analysis is from March, before the failed PS Now brand was killed and merged into PS+.

Counting two merged services and the lack of Gold numbers has successfully let you post this disingenuous ranking all this time 😅






Of course you know MS doesn't put out those numbers, no need to be smug about it my friend :sneaky:

Let's do some napkin math.

PS+ MAU: 102 million - June 2022
PS+ Subscribers: 47.3 million - June 2022

46.3% of PS+'s MAU is made of paid subscribers.

Xbox Live MAU: 100m - Dec 2020

Now this is where i'll become generous. Let's subtract 25m from that 100m MAU so we don't even include the last known Game Pass install base. That gives an MAU of 75m XBL users as of Dec who aren't subbed to game pass.

46.3% of of XBL MAU, using PS+ as a reference, would be 34.7m.

In a very generous estimate with massive reductions, Game Pass + XBL Gold is roughly: 59.7m using 2+ year old metrics. Realistically it's probably way above 60m by now.



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So you actually believe there are more XBL + GP subs than there are Xbox's sold lmao
 
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adamsapple

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So you actually believe there are more XBL + GP subs than there are Xbox's sold lmao

There have been ~178 million xbox consoles sold. The MAU is 100 million. My estimate was 59~60 million.

Remember kids, Math doesn't need to be this hard. You just need to FOCUS. 🤭
 

ChorizoPicozo

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Bro. Are you living in the past?

PlayStation Already won the console warz. Even Xbox admit to it.

The next warz is the suscribtion services warz.
In this one, Xbox has a genuine chance of 'winning'.
 

Dr Bass

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Bro. Are you living in the past?

PlayStation Already won the console warz. Even Xbox admit to it.

The next warz is the suscribtion services warz.
In this one, Xbox has a genuine chance of 'winning'.
Well ... how do you figure?

I am against all the sub stuff as it's a bad way to sell software and we've already seen what its done to the mobile/desktop side.

That said.

More PS consoles sell.

PS has better software.

PS+ is mostly cheaper, where the top tier is basically the same. Not takin the dollar conversion thing into account, but at least you KNOW on the PS+ side none of the sub numbers are people like that.

So ... bigger audience, better games, and lower average cost barring the conversion trick, which surely won't be around forever.

How does Xbox win that?
 

Yobo

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There have been ~178 million xbox consoles sold. The MAU is 100 million. My estimate was 59~60 million.

Remember kids, Math doesn't need to be this hard. You just need to FOCUS. 🤭
You ACTUALLY think Xbox 360 has any relevance to current MAU?

Xbox One sold 50 million. Series is at 10-15 million with a ton of overlap in the userbase

Even if we are generous and saying 65 million people have an Xbox hooked up now to their TV and we ignore all variables like repeat purchasers, replacements etc you are saying >90% have an active subscription.

Reality is that those MAU numbers are irrelevant to subscriptions when put in context because those numbers are inflated by games like Minecraft cross play, F2P and free PC accounts required

Gamepass is 25 million and very few people are subscribing to Gold without Gamepass anymore. Which is a number that makes sense as a roughly 50% console sale to sub rate is in line with everybody else.

Math isn't hard, context is though and if you think MS had a 10 million subscriber advantage over Sony they wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops?
 

adamsapple

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Math isn't hard, context is though and if you think MS had a 10 million subscriber advantage over Sony they wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops?

You would think so, but then you would also think they'll be shouting the number of game pass subs as there's apparently millions of people who only sign up for the $1 tiers, or so many folks here seem to believe.

I think it is a very very safe bet that GP + XBLG is in excess of PS Now + PS+.

Unfortunately MS's corporate policies and whatnot.
 

Darth Vader

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You don't even have to take his word. Just go back a couple of years regarding Microsoft's annual reports, get the latest gaming revenue number, and then apply the percentage change that they report with regards to gaming every year. That's exactly what Zhuge is doing.

I actually tried. No reports, going as far back as 2013, include broken down revenue numbers. Daniel's tweet is pure speculation based on napkin math. For example, in Q3 15, he has hardware down to more of less 500M, but Microsoft had sold 2M Xbox consoles by FY14 Q3. I ran some math, and for you to get the just over 500M dollar sales for hardware you need to average out console sales at around 350 dollars. This is assumption 1. Assumption 2 is determining how he finds numbers (% of hardware revenue decline) that are not in subsequent reports.

So yeah, a bunch of bullshit one analyst pulled out of his ass is your source. You haven't even read the reports.

Yeah, you've done the math (like how much money actually comes from GP monthly, which crushes a lot of 'backlash') but a lot of users don't like reading through the exhaustive reports. Zhuge is just bullet pointing the relevant parts for the gaming audience that cares about that kind of stuff.

Good thing I read them then. Zhuge was the single source of truth for the 3.74B claim last quarter. For. every. single. piece. of. news.
 

Yobo

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You would think so, but then you would also think they'll be shouting the number of game pass subs as there's apparently millions of people who only sign up for the $1 tiers, or so many folks here seem to believe.

I think it is a very very safe bet that GP + XBLG is in excess of PS Now + PS+.

Unfortunately MS's corporate policies and whatnot.
They do give the number of Gamepass subs. It's 25 million

GP and Gold are at 30 million now if we are being generous
 
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ChorizoPicozo

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Well ... how do you figure?

I am against all the sub stuff as it's a bad way to sell software and we've already seen what its done to the mobile/desktop side.

That said.

More PS consoles sell.

PS has better software.

PS+ is mostly cheaper, where the top tier is basically the same. Not takin the dollar conversion thing into account, but at least you KNOW on the PS+ side none of the sub numbers are people like that.

So ... bigger audience, better games, and lower average cost barring the conversion trick, which surely won't be around forever.

How does Xbox win that?
I mean, the console warz between Playstaion And Xbox lasted like 20 year or something like that.

This new Subscriptions warz is just beginning.

Theoretically speaking Xbox should get more subscribers just for the fact that they have Game Pass on PC.


This is why I said :

genuine chance of 'winning'

And I put winning in quotations. Because

1. Ain't gonna be easy.

2. As the a lot of people said (especially green rats) "PlayStation can't compete" the one who is actually trying to compete is Xbox. PlayStation is not resting in their laurels.
 
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Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

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Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

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The market analysis is from March, before the failed PS Now brand was killed and merged into PS+.

Counting two merged services and the lack of Gold numbers has successfully let you post this disingenuous ranking all this time 😅






Of course you know MS doesn't put out those numbers, no need to be smug about it my friend :sneaky:

Let's do some napkin math.

PS+ MAU: 102 million - June 2022
PS+ Subscribers: 47.3 million - June 2022

46.3% of PS+'s MAU is made of paid subscribers.

Xbox Live MAU: 100m - Dec 2020

Now this is where i'll become generous. Let's subtract 25m from that 100m MAU so we don't even include the last known Game Pass install base. That gives an MAU of 75m XBL users as of Dec who aren't subbed to game pass.

46.3% of of XBL MAU, using PS+ as a reference, would be 34.7m.

In a very generous estimate with massive reductions, Game Pass + XBL Gold is roughly: 59.7m using 2+ year old metrics. Realistically it's probably way above 60m by now.



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Instead of these mindfuck and incorrect calculations, you should just share the official XBLG numbers with me and prove me wrong 😄
 
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Bernd Lauert

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We do know about profits from the companies that choose to share it. Companies that hide it must go at the end.
lmao
It's not 100% correct since you're missing a huge part of Xbox subscriptions, acting like they don't exist (just like with the profits).

All I see is console warring via a very disingenuous "analysis" of the market 😁
 
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Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

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lmao

It's not 100% correct since you're missing a huge part of Xbox subscriptions, acting like they don't exist (just like with the profits).

All I see is console warring via a very disingenuous "analysis" of the market 😁
As I said to Adamsapple, share official numbers, and I'll add them. No point in calling my analysis disingenuous. Not my fault if MS doesn't share its data and chooses to hide it.
 
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Bernd Lauert

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As I said to Adamsapple, share official numbers, and I'll add them. No point in calling my analysis disingenuous. Not my fault if MS doesn't share its data and chooses to hide it.
Real analysis: "We don't know all the numbers, so we can't make any definitive statements."
Fake analysis: "We ignore the fact that we can't make any definitive statements because it fits our narrative."
 

Vertigo

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Just to clarify a few things.

Switch is not relevant to the discussion. It’s a handheld, not a console. DS and 3DS sales were never discussed in previous console wars discussions. It’s not relevant now either. Different demographics; not competing for the same gamers. Nintendo surrendered in the home console business.

Ps Plus Extra and Gamepass users are not the same. Extra piggy backs off existing plus users, which is required for multiplayer gaming. Gamespass is an entirely separate sub from Xbox Live Gold. Comparing Gamepass to Extra while excluding Xbox Live Gold is a disingenuous spin on semantics.

Thirdly, Series S competes against last gen machines like PS4 Pro and One X. Barely a step up for those; will hold Series games back the entire generation.

Next gen comparisons should only be Series X vs PS5 — and there are significantly more PS5s in households over X consoles. Series S is the welfare model that competes with PS4.
 
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