PlayStation will win this generation in the next 6 months. Here's why.

[Heisenberg007]

So far, this generation has played out very similarly to the previous generation. And if you remember, this was the time period (~20 months after launch) that PlayStation started widening the gap, which then culminated in a landslide victory.

I believe PlayStation is about to bury Xbox once again and win this generation, and this will all play out in the next 6 months. Here's why.

1. Console sales​

Selling more consoles has been the biggest challenge for both console manufacturers, and it is mostly because of supply issues. While Xbox's demand and supply are relatively more in equilibrium now, PlayStation's demand still outdoes supply by a fair margin. PlayStation has been on the back foot because of limited supply.

That's about to change.

Around March 2022, Sony forecasted to sell 18 million PS5 units between April 2022 and March 2023. From April to June, they sold 2.4 million units, an average of 0.8 million units sold per month.

The interesting part is that Sony did not change its forecast for the rest of the fiscal year, which means Sony is confident in supplying and selling 15.6 million units before March 31, 2023. That is an average of 1.73 million units per month. That's more than double what Sony has manufactured so far.

On the other hand, Xbox has run into its own supply issues that would last throughout 2022 and even 2023. This is after having a good period when they manufactured lots of consoles at the start of 2022.

Assuming it all plays out like this, after March 2023, Sony would have sold more than 35 million PS5s, while Xbox would be around 19 million consoles (based on current reported and estimated sales data). A ratio of almost 2:1, similar to last gen.

2. Software​

PlayStation has been doing very well in terms of first- and third-party software, and it's going to get surprisingly better very soon.

They already have lots of momentum with:

• Horizon Forbidden West
• Gran Turismo 7
• Elden Ring
• Spider-Man Miles Morales
• Ghost of Tsushima

And very soon, they will have big juggernauts like:

• The Last of Us Remake
• God of War Ragnarok

These two games will play a key role in Q4.

In addition, there are big third-party titles that PlayStation is associated with:

• Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
• Avatar
• Hogwart's Legacy
• Callisto Protocol
• Valkyrie Elysium

Then comes 2023 which brings giants like:

• Spider-Man 2
• Final Fantasy XVI
• Final Fantasy VII Remake - Part 2
• TLOU Online

Xbox could have shown some resistance with Starfield, but that delay could not have come at a worse time for Xbox. Now it's an open field for PlayStation to sell lots and lots of consoles and game software.

3. Upcoming Surprises​

To top it off, PlayStation will be able to gain a ton of momentum if they show what they have been cooking in a PlayStation Showcase this September. This is a huge advantage that PlayStation currently has over Xbox.

We already know the big games Xbox has in store, but with PlayStation, it's so exciting because we hardly know anything. At the very least, we have 12 new PlayStation IPs to look forward to.

And next-gen gameplay of Spider-Man 2 and Wolverine would make a huge difference to brand value and perception. Big sequels to games like Ghost of Tsushima 2 would also melt brains.

Of the 25 games in development, we only know about 4, which means we don't know about at least 84% of the games that PlayStation Studios have in development.

4. Missing Pieces​

Two things that PlayStation has been struggling with -- and where Xbox had an advantage and could gain a competitive edge this generation -- have been nullified by PlayStation.

1. Multiplayer, live-service, and shooter games -- There are more than 10 games in development that belong to this category.
2. Subscription service -- PS Plus has been making waves and was able to eliminate (or, at least, minimize) the huge Gamepass advantage that Xbox had going for it.

In addition, the upcoming 10+ TV Shows and Movies based on Playstation IPs can play a massive role in bringing new people to the PlayStation ecosystem.

5. Innovations​

To top it all off, for people who prefer new and shiny stuff, PlayStation will be releasing PS VR 2 before March 2023. That would be a huge competitive advantage over Xbox which does not offer any games in this medium at all.

6. Acquisitions​

Last but not least, we know that bigger acquisitions are coming that would help sway the momentum in PlayStation's favor even more.

• Both Greg and Jeff Grubb heard about Square Enix. Eidos's CEO also heard that Sony was acquiring SquareEnix.
• Jim Ryan confirmed that Sony has many more acquisitions planned.
• Sony started Bungie acquisition talks in June 2020 -- before Activision and Bethesda. So the response to those acquisitions by Xbox (if any) has yet to come.

My Conclusion​

My takeaway is that PlayStation has all its bases covered (VR, single-player games, multiplayer games), has enough momentum from the recent past (console sales advantage and successful software in Miles Morales, HFW, and GT7), and momentum to grab in the upcoming months (TLOU, God of War, PS VR 2) to seal the fate of this generation.

In addition, they have fixed their two biggest shortcomings: limited console supply and a Gamepass competitor.

I believe in the next six months, PlayStation will take an insurmountable lead over Xbox that will win them this generation quite comfortably and even more comprehensively than the PS4 generation.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Just a quick question, how do you measure the "win"? Just consoles sales? Doesn't seem like a very good metric when both Playstation and Xbox are pivoting heavily into multiplatform, including PC.

 

[Yossarian]

Kek

 

[Heisenberg007]

Just a quick question, how do you measure the "win"? Just consoles sales? Doesn't seem like a very good metric when both Playstation and Xbox are pivoting heavily into multiplatform, including PC.

Not just that.

Although consoles sales are still the most important metric in my opinion (even higher consoles sales directly translate into higher subscription attach rate).

But it's a combination of console sales, software sales, revenue, profit, and brand traction and perception.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Not just that.

Although consoles sales are still the most important metric in my opinion (even higher consoles sales directly translate into higher subscription attach rate).

But it's a combination of console sales, software sales, revenue, profit, and brand traction and perception.

Hmm I see. I'll measure Sony on their goal to reach 50% market share by the end of 2025.

 

[BigMclargeHuge]

I don't know if they'll wrap things up in 6 months, but I'm fairly confident ps5 will outsell the series x/s. By how much though remains to be seen. Largely depends if Microsoft can get their shit together first party wise. Feel free to use this post against me if my prediction turns out wrong.

 

[Hezekiah]

Software should be no.1. Sony is consistently bringing big games, and MS can't manage studios as it is, and has more coming.

Console sales are of course important and help increase mindshare/brand awareness, but MS will do it's best to make sure any comparisons are based on guesses for their hardware, and keep it's numbers well hidden while continuing to spend big on marketing.

 

[Sircaw]

I don't know if they'll wrap things up in 6 months, but I'm fairly confident ps5 will outsell the series x/s. By how much though remains to be seen. Largely depends if Microsoft can get their shit together first party wise. Feel free to use this post against me if my prediction turns out wrong.

It's going to be very interesting to see how things play out, i do expect Sony to have the next two years at least under their control, but Microsoft will bound back later in the generation, common sense tells me that as that seems where most of their games will be ready.

Either way, it's going to be an interesting battle.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I don't know if they'll wrap things up in 6 months, but I'm fairly confident ps5 will outsell the series x/s. By how much though remains to be seen. Largely depends if Microsoft can get their shit together first party wise. Feel free to use this post against me if my prediction turns out wrong.

The six-month time period for me would (1) set the platform for Sony to keep dominating for the rest of the generation and (2) widen the gap between PS and Xbox and give PS an insurmountable lead that Xbox won't be able to recover from.

 

[Yurinka]

So far, this generation has played out very similarly to the previous generation. And if you remember, this was the time period (~20 months after launch) that PlayStation started widening the gap, which then culminated in a landslide victory.

I believe PlayStation is about to bury Xbox once again and win this generation, and this will all play out in the next 6 months. Here's why.

1. Console sales​

Selling more consoles has been the biggest challenge for both console manufacturers, and it is mostly because of supply issues. While Xbox's demand and supply are relatively more in equilibrium now, PlayStation's demand still outdoes supply by a fair margin. PlayStation has been on the back foot because of limited supply.

That's about to change.

Around March 2022, Sony forecasted to sell 18 million PS5 units between April 2022 and March 2023. From April to June, they sold 2.4 million units, an average of 0.8 million units sold per month.

The interesting part is that Sony did not change its forecast for the rest of the fiscal year, which means Sony is confident in supplying and selling 15.6 million units before March 31, 2023. That is an average of 1.73 million units per month. That's more than double what Sony has manufactured so far.

On the other hand, Xbox has run into its own supply issues that would last throughout 2022 and even 2023. This is after having a good period when they manufactured lots of consoles at the start of 2022.

Assuming it all plays out like this, after March 2023, Sony would have sold more than 35 million PS5s, while Xbox would be around 19 million consoles (based on current reported and estimated sales data). A ratio of almost 2:1, similar to last gen.

2. Software​

PlayStation has been doing very well in terms of first- and third-party software, and it's going to get surprisingly better very soon.

They already have lots of momentum with:

• Horizon Forbidden West
• Gran Turismo 7
• Elden Ring
• Spider-Man Miles Morales
• Ghost of Tsushima

And very soon, they will have big juggernauts like:

• The Last of Us Remake
• God of War Ragnarok

These two games will play a key role in Q4.

In addition, there are big third-party titles that PlayStation is associated with:

• Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
• Avatar
• Hogwart's Legacy
• Callisto Protocol
• Valkyrie Elysium

Then comes 2023 which brings giants like:

• Spider-Man 2
• Final Fantasy XVI
• Final Fantasy VII Remake - Part 2
• TLOU Online

Xbox could have shown some resistance with Starfield, but that delay could not have come at a worse time for Xbox. Now it's an open field for PlayStation to sell lots and lots of consoles and game software.

3. Upcoming Surprises​

To top it off, PlayStation will be able to gain a ton of momentum if they show what they have been cooking in a PlayStation Showcase this September. This is a huge advantage that PlayStation currently has over Xbox.

We already know the big games Xbox has in store, but with PlayStation, it's so exciting because we hardly know anything. At the very least, we have 12 new PlayStation IPs to look forward to.

And next-gen gameplay of Spider-Man 2 and Wolverine would make a huge difference to brand value and perception. Big sequels to games like Ghost of Tsushima 2 would also melt brains.

Of the 25 games in development, we only know about 4, which means we don't know about at least 84% of the games that PlayStation Studios have in development.

4. Missing Pieces​

Two things that PlayStation has been struggling with -- and where Xbox had an advantage and could gain a competitive edge this generation -- have been nullified by PlayStation.

1. Multiplayer, live-service, and shooter games -- There are more than 10 games in development that belong to this category.
2. Subscription service -- PS Plus has been making waves and was able to eliminate (or, at least, minimize) the huge Gamepass advantage that Xbox had going for it.

In addition, the upcoming 10+ TV Shows and Movies based on Playstation IPs can play a massive role in bringing new people to the PlayStation ecosystem.

5. Innovations​

To top it all off, for people who prefer new and shiny stuff, PlayStation will be releasing PS VR 2 before March 2023. That would be a huge competitive advantage over Xbox which does not offer any games in this medium at all.

6. Acquisitions​

Last but not least, we know that bigger acquisitions are coming that would help sway the momentum in PlayStation's favor even more.

• Both Greg and Jeff Grubb heard about Square Enix. Eidos's CEO also heard that Sony was acquiring SquareEnix.
• Jim Ryan confirmed that Sony has many more acquisitions planned.
• Sony started Bungie acquisition talks in June 2020 -- before Activision and Bethesda. So the response to those acquisitions by Xbox (if any) has yet to come.

My Conclusion​

My takeaway is that PlayStation has all its bases covered (VR, single-player games, multiplayer games), has enough momentum from the recent past (console sales advantage and successful software in Miles Morales, HFW, and GT7), and momentum to grab in the upcoming months (TLOU, God of War, PS VR 2) to seal the fate of this generation.

In addition, they have fixed their two biggest shortcomings: limited console supply and a Gamepass competitor.

I believe in the next six months, PlayStation will take an insurmountable lead over Xbox that will win them this generation quite comfortably and even more comprehensively than the PS4 generation.

Excellent post. I'd add a few things:

• PC ports of Horizon Zero Dawn, GoW 2018, Spider-Man and Spider-Man, Miles Morales, TLOU expands their fanbase making some of these PC players want to buy a PS5 to play their PS only sequels.
• Sony is also associated with has big key Q1/early multiplatform games like Resident Evil 4 Remake (VR support), Resident Evil Village VR (VR support), Street Fighter 6 (console exclusive for last gen).
• Sony bought Bungie and owns 100% of it, who said plans to release at least (so maybe more) one new IP before 2025. They made Halo and the current best selling new IP record holder: Destiny, so it's fair to assume these new Sony IPs they are working on will be very important and can be a great hype bomb to drop as soon as they are able to meet supply and demand again (maybe around December or early 2023?).
• I'd also mention they have been growing their teams: some now made their first AAA (Housemarque) or are working on the first one (Pixel Opus, Arrowhead) and other ones (Guerrilla, Firesprite, Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica, San Diego, Team Asobi...) increased or are increasing the amount of games they work at the same time, so they will release and announce games more frequently than before, keeping the hype/momentum permanently very high.
• Regarding innovations, I'd talk there about the DualSense.

Just a quick question, how do you measure the "win"? Just consoles sales? Doesn't seem like a very good metric when both Playstation and Xbox are pivoting heavily into multiplatform, including PC.

I'd say having a console market share (looking at their revenue generated in terms of business first, and/or MAU in terms of userbase second) so big compared to the competition that it's seen as impossible to revert during the generation.

If the difference can be so big that some publishers and devs may decide to support only the clear "winner" or to stop supporting the "loser", affecting the game lineup of such consoles. Without getting paid, just because they see that their sales (or the ones of similar games from the competition) on a certain console are so low that aren't worth the cost of the port.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Hmm I see. I'll measure Sony on their goal to reach 50% market share by the end of 2025.

That is a good goal to measure their success.

But 50% means the rest of the 50% is shared by other competitors. In that case, even less than 50% market share will still mean that PlayStation has dominated, in comparison to Xbox.

For example, if their market share is 45%, that means everyone else has a market share of 55% combined, that still means PlayStation dominated and won this generation.

 

[adamsapple]

 

[Sircaw]

Adam
Stop with this type of shit please, if you're not going to add anything constructive to the posts, or add points of value to the discussion, its time for you to pack your bags.

The Op has made a long detailed post on why he gives his reasons, if you are going to combat that, then add some key remarks or points, not the usual fanboy dribble.

 

[adamsapple]

Adam
Stop with this type of shit please, if you're not going to add anything constructive to the posts, or add points of value to the discussion, its time for you to pack your bags.

Yes sir

If I want to add something to this discussion, I think it's nothing but some elaborate hopium on op start, the series consoles are already tracking faster than the last generation, I think this will be closer to the PS3 360 than the last one.

 

[Sircaw]

Yes sir

If I want to add something to this discussion, I think it's nothing but some elaborate hopium on op start, the series consoles are already tracking faster than the last generation, I think this will be closer to the PS3 360 than the last one.

it's not yes sir, it's the typical response you added to yet another post, you did the exact thing a week ago and your post was removed, like i said enough is enough with your derailing comments, either you want to add to them in a constructive manner or exit the site.

 

[arvfab]

Adam
Stop with this type of shit please, if you're not going to add anything constructive to the posts, or add points of value to the discussion, its time for you to pack your bags.

The Op has made a long detailed post on why he gives his reasons, if you are going to combat that, then add some key remarks or points not the usual fanboy dribble.

But how can he stop? Do you stop fulfilling your contractual agreements, only because someone on a forum says so? Think about the bills he won't be able to pay if he stops getting that astroturfing money!

 

[Sircaw]

But how can he stop? Do you stop fulfilling your contractual agreements, only because someone on a forum says so? Think about the bills he won't be able to pay if he stops getting that astroturfing money!

There is a post incoming shortly, people will need to read it carefully.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

That is a good goal to measure their success.

But 50% means the rest of the 50% is shared by other competitors. In that case, even less than 50% market share will still mean that PlayStation has dominated, in comparison to Xbox.

For example, if their market share is 45%, that means everyone else has a market share of 55% combined, that still means PlayStation dominated and won this generation.

Obviously depends on how the others are doing. If it's something like 45%, 35% and 20%, then nobody has really dominated.

 

[PropellerEar]

it's not yes sir, it's the typical response you added to yet another post, you did the exact thing a week ago and your post was removed, like i said enough is enough with your derailing comments, either you want to add to them in a constructive manner or exit the site.

I agree fully, @Heisenberg007 made a well thought and well written Thread, it's not ok to just shit post on it. @adamsapple be more like @Bernd Lauert and try to atleast make some discussion.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Obviously depends on how the others are doing. If it's something like 45%, 35% and 20%, then nobody has really dominated.

If, let's say, PlayStation has 45%, Nintendo has 30%, and Xbox has 20%, won't you say that PlayStation has won the generation?

I think that 50% market share is a good OKR for internal performance and evaluating how Jimbo has performed and expanded PlayStation. It won't necessarily be a good metric to see how PlayStation has compared to Xbox this generation (which is the main point of my post/prediction).