Sony's future and possible studio/publisher acquisitions

Yurinka

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I don't know anything for sure but i can take an educated guess and make an informed decision.

I mean anything's possible, but it certainly is far fetched on both the Konami ans S-E front. we've had nothing to indicate either company is looking to sell, and judging by Sony's last acquisition (Bungie) they'd still just be making multiplats anyways if they did. You're hoping on some pipe-dream to give you ammo against xbox fanboys, i'm basing my guesses on reality.

sony's low marketshare in Japan make it extremely unlikely that they acquire any Japanese company that is still heavily in business with Nintendo. Especially not ones with decades of independence under their belt like Capcom, S-E, konami, sega. These guys won't sell.

you're acqusition-begging. plain and simple.
Bungie isn't the last one, they acquired Lasengle and Haven.

Japan, for Sony and big Japanese publishers entioned like Konami, SE, Bandai Namco or Capcom, makes a small portion of the global revenue. As market Japan isn't that big deal:

If we look at global sales, PS4 sold more games than any other console in gaming history, 1.6 Billion games as of last year. As of this April Switch sold 822M games. And this isn't counting F2P, where the main ones have PS as their main platform. PS5 is selling more games per console than and has a higher ARPU than PS4. This is why so many top 3rd parties have PS as their top platform an not Switch.

Regarding Japan, these sales rankings only show a few dozen games out of thousands that are being sold. Switch is the only platform where worldwide their physical sales represent a meaningful portion of their total sales. In PS around 80% of the game revenue is digital, and in PC or mobile is even higher.

So looking at -literally- the global picture these Japanese retail top sales rankings don't mean a shit. If some 3rd parties are important isn't because of their sales there, but instead their global sales both in digital and physical.
 

Remember_Spinal

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Bungie isn't the last one, they acquired Lasengle and Haven.

Japan, for Sony and big Japanese publishers entioned like Konami, SE, Bandai Namco or Capcom, makes a small portion of the global revenue. As market Japan isn't that big deal:

If we look at global sales, PS4 sold more games than any other console in gaming history, 1.6 Billion games as of last year. As of this April Switch sold 822M games. And this isn't counting F2P, where the main ones have PS as their main platform. PS5 is selling more games per console than and has a higher ARPU than PS4. This is why so many top 3rd parties have PS as their top platform an not Switch.

Regarding Japan, these sales rankings only show a few dozen games out of thousands that are being sold. Switch is the only platform where worldwide their physical sales represent a meaningful portion of their total sales. In PS around 80% of the game revenue is digital, and in PC or mobile is even higher.

So looking at -literally- the global picture these Japanese retail top sales rankings don't mean a shit. If some 3rd parties are important isn't because of their sales there, but instead their global sales both in digital and physical.

Yeah, I’ve been saying this. People are using such a tiny sample size (Japanese weekly retail minus Amazon) to approximate market trends in an entire region and sometimes globally and it just doesn’t work. Theres a reason Sony buys exclusivity for stuff like Final Fantasy/Forspoken or Market deals for Resident Evil and Street Fighter. They are looking at the global sales market, as are most publishers, which is why theres more pc and xbox presence this gen.

Sony wouldn’t be buying a Japanese publisher to conquer or re-establish their market share in Japan, they would buy the publisher that performs well in the global market. Sony themselves left japan for a reason, they discovered how much more their western games and 3rd parties sell than their japanese games, especially in Japan. Not to mention westerners in general just spend more per game than anywhere else.

People that are still hyper focused on Japan are missing the bigger picture. The landscape has changed
 
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Eternal_Wings

Eternal_Wings

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Yeah, I’ve been saying this. People are using such a tiny sample size (Japanese weekly retail minus Amazon) to approximate market trends in an entire region and sometimes globally and it just doesn’t work. Theres a reason Sony buys exclusivity for stuff like Final Fantasy/Forspoken or Market deals for Resident Evil and Street Fighter. They are looking at the global sales market, as are most publishers, which is why theres more pc and xbox presence this gen.

Sony wouldn’t be buying a Japanese publisher to conquer or re-establish their market share in Japan, they would buy the publisher that performs well in the global market. Sony themselves left japan for a reason, they discovered how much more their western games and 3rd parties sell than their japanese games, especially in Japan. Not to mention westerners in general just spend more per game than anywhere else.

People that are still hyper focused on Japan are missing the bigger picture. The landscape has changed
That's why I said Square Enix or the likes of Capcom for example always performed better with their games in the west (Europe & NA). The times were in Japan Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy sold 3-5 million copies are in the past. Sadly but that's the truth. Without all the support from the western community, all that publishers like mentioned would struggle today or would have stopped to exist. But many don't want to accept it, even if you prove it with posting confirmed sources...
 
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Remember_Spinal

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That's why I said Square Enix or the likes of Capcom for example always performed better with their games in the west (Europe & NA). The times were in Japan Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy sold 3-5 million copies are in the past. Sadly but that's the truth. Without all the support from the western community, all that publishers like mentioned would struggle today or would have stopped to exist. But many don't want to accept it, even if you prove it with posting confirmed sources...

Yeah, the game market in general has grown 10 fold in the last 10-15 years and the budgets for AAA gaming have grown also. There was a time not too long ago when Final Fantasy and Metal Gear set the bar for cinematic games and they still only sold 4-6 million copies. Sonys big 1st party is doing that in preorders alone almost.

Ps4 only sold 10 million consoles in Japan, yet it went on to sell almost 117 million globally, now do the math. If the ps5 and to a far greater extent the xbox is struggling in japan now what do people think will be left of the gaming market there. Nintendo is going to carry the entire japanese development industry on its back with super outdated hardware?

Not only that but its not even completely certain what the next iteration of Nintendos console will be so 3rd parties aren’t gonna hitch their wagon to them. The future of console gaming in Japan is just looking bleak and the publishers that will survive will all continue to move westward. The smaller niche publishers maybe able to rely on nintendo but thats really it.
 
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Eternal_Wings

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The future of console gaming in Japan is just looking bleak and the publishers that will survive will all continue to move westward. The smaller niche publishers maybe able to rely on nintendo but thats really it.
What I really would looking forward up, would be Sony buys the developer behind YS and Trails of Series. As YS with budget could revival Kingdom Hearts! Really love that creative developer Nihon Falcom.
 

Yurinka

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Yeah, I’ve been saying this. People are using such a tiny sample size (Japanese weekly retail minus Amazon) to approximate market trends in an entire region and sometimes globally and it just doesn’t work. Theres a reason Sony buys exclusivity for stuff like Final Fantasy/Forspoken or Market deals for Resident Evil and Street Fighter. They are looking at the global sales market, as are most publishers, which is why theres more pc and xbox presence this gen.
Yep. If you only look at these Japan only retail rankings, probably Monster Hunter Rise did a better job than Monster Hunter World there, but isn't representative of the total global sales. But if instead you look at the global physical+digital sales from Capcom they mention MHW sold 21M copies and MHR 10M copies.

These rankings are pretty misleading both to analyze the total Japanese market (including all digital and physical sales) and also to analyze the total (digital+physical) global market.

It's specially misleading because the percentage of physical sales of the game sales in Switch is pretty high and in PlayStation is super low.

Sony wouldn’t be buying a Japanese publisher to conquer or re-establish their market share in Japan, they would buy the publisher that performs well in the global market. Sony themselves left japan for a reason, they discovered how much more their western games and 3rd parties sell than their japanese games, especially in Japan. Not to mention westerners in general just spend more per game than anywhere else.

People that are still hyper focused on Japan are missing the bigger picture. The landscape has changed
Sony never left Japan.

This generation they signed at least a PS4 exclusive with basically every known 3rd party publisher, unlike MS or Nintendo. As an example recently they recently released exclusives from ARC System Works + Eighting + Nexxon (DnF Duel), Platinum + Square Enix (Babylon's Fall), Kadokawa (Relayer) or Tango (Ghostwire Tokyo) to name a few or even published by themselves (GT7, Death Stranding Director's Cut, Astro) and they have many Japanese exclusives announced like VR stuff from Capcom, Granblue Fantasy Relink, Project Awakenin or a gazillion Square Enix games to name a few.

And even if it's a small part of Sony's global market, it still is one of its main countries as it was in the early days of PS4. Even if this graph isn't very representative due to the supply shortage issue:
image.png


The main difference between now and during the PS4 launch is that -in addition to the current supply issue- is the digital spent on PS4 was 20% then and is 80% now:
image.png
 

Dabaus

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The thing about square enix though is that they’re have much more than just aaa console games. They have a cellphone games division, they have a manga division, and own the worlds most popular mmo. Even if we were to take the aaa games and backlog out of the equation, these are all things Sony would probably be looking for. Not only is that relavent in Japan but Also world wide and fits the company’s stated goals.
 
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For what it’s worth I just don’t think capcom is on the menu at the moment. They have a good relationship with Nintendo and also are porting resident evil village to be able to play on iPads or some apple devices. I’d say capcom probably won’t get bought by anyone simply because they have a overall good relationship with everyone and Nintendo and now Apple I think would bid heavy to keep them at least out of Microsoft’s clutch’s.

Square enix from what I can tell is literally begging Sony to buy them.

IMO I don't think a company having good relations with all the platform holders prevents the possibility of them being acquired by one. It just comes down to if it makes sense for the money, and if they can integrate together culturally workplace-wise. Also other things, like what redundancies would have to be considered for phasing out and insurance/benefits being maintained or bettered for employed staff, stuff like that.

From a pure finances/revenue POV a company like Capcom doesn't seemingly need to be acquired, that's true. But they'll always be looking at how their revenue and profit margins are trending, relative to development costs, staffing costs, costs for maintaining insurance policies and equipment operations, distribution & logistics, you name it. If it starts looking too tight, that might make them more open to things like acquisitions, or possibly taking out a loan or two from a banking institution beforehand (or just opening up their stocks for buyers, tho I don't know how companies do that type of stuff on the Nikkei Index).

Yeah, the game market in general has grown 10 fold in the last 10-15 years and the budgets for AAA gaming have grown also. There was a time not too long ago when Final Fantasy and Metal Gear set the bar for cinematic games and they still only sold 4-6 million copies. Sonys big 1st party is doing that in preorders alone almost.

Ps4 only sold 10 million consoles in Japan, yet it went on to sell almost 117 million globally, now do the math. If the ps5 and to a far greater extent the xbox is struggling in japan now what do people think will be left of the gaming market there. Nintendo is going to carry the entire japanese development industry on its back with super outdated hardware?

Not only that but its not even completely certain what the next iteration of Nintendos console will be so 3rd parties aren’t gonna hitch their wagon to them. The future of console gaming in Japan is just looking bleak and the publishers that will survive will all continue to move westward. The smaller niche publishers maybe able to rely on nintendo but thats really it.

That's a good way to look at it tbh; for all we know, the Switch could be an anomaly. I'd like to think not, but it's definitely possible a Switch 2 could see a drop in overall install base. I think of something like going from the Famicom/NES to Super Famicom/SNES which by many accounts was not only a superior system tech-wise but also library-wise, but it still saw a drop of 11 million units gen over gen to the Famicom/NES.

How much of that can be put on performance of competitors or just a shifting trend in the console gaming market at the time, particularly in Japan, I don't think anyone can say. But it happened regardless. We kinda saw a similar trending down in their handheld sales; even excusing the DS for being a freak of nature, IIRC LTD for 3DS was roughly less than half that of the DS. The Switch is closing in on 100 million but would a more traditional Nintendo handheld & console-esque Wii U successor had done similar numbers combined or slightly more, or something less?

I kinda think that's one of the (among other) useful purposes of the Steam Deck; if Valve could pump up supply numbers by a few magnitudes we could gauge to some capacity what the market for a mainstream "second generation" Switch-like device could be once the novelty of a device's hybrid nature starts to wear off. Gotta stress "kind of" tho given Steam Deck isn't a hybrid in the fashion of a Switch, but it's still got a unique selling hook for a handheld device perhaps one that could be considered more restrained than that of the Switch's, however.


The main difference between now and during the PS4 launch is that -in addition to the current supply issue- is the digital spent on PS4 was 20% then and is 80% now:
image.png

Okay, didn't know the digital-to-physical ratio was that high already for PS consoles. That should be roughly within territory with where it is on Xbox platforms, no?

I think in light of that, it makes things like the UK physical sales charts look even more impressive. Those charts, FWIW, the actual volume of software being moved on shelves in those places probably isn't that much, but it's probably a good indicator that those same games are seeing exponentially more sales in the digital space on top of it.
 

Yurinka

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Okay, didn't know the digital-to-physical ratio was that high already for PS consoles. That should be roughly within territory with where it is on Xbox platforms, no?

I think in light of that, it makes things like the UK physical sales charts look even more impressive. Those charts, FWIW, the actual volume of software being moved on shelves in those places probably isn't that much, but it's probably a good indicator that those same games are seeing exponentially more sales in the digital space on top of it.
This 80% of digital should be very similar in the few countries where they have more consoles active (so they can buy stuff for them), because pretty likely the top countries should represent a big portion of the total consoles. Regarding PS5 in the same posts we saw the top 10 countries are USA, UK, Japan, Germany, France, China, Canada, Australia, Italy and Spain.

For PS4 actives maybe slightly different. Several years ago USA represented 33% of the PS business and Europe a 40%. So with NA and EU we may have 2/3 or 3/4 of the whole PS market. Very different from the whole gaming market where Asia represents a way bigger part, I assume it's one of the reasons why SIE wants to grow in Asia (specially outside Japan) or Latin America compared to the whole gaming business PS is too focused on NA and EU so they want to grow in the other huge or highly growing markets of the world, where people plays more mobile and PC than consoles (as also happens in NA and EU, but in Asia or Latin America is in a way bigger proportion).
 

LightBolt

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Let's keep it friendly and all that.. Ember Lab is a much more nicer buy than Square Enix IMO for two reasons.

Reason 1: Expand the studio and bring devs to make a better game with higher budget/polish
Reason 2: Having access to all of Sony's support studios and tech will help Ember so much.

There is a reason why Kena was shown off at the Future of Gaming showcase in 20202!
 

Remember_Spinal

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Let's keep it friendly and all that.. Ember Lab is a much more nicer buy than Square Enix IMO for two reasons.

Reason 1: Expand the studio and bring devs to make a better game with higher budget/polish
Reason 2: Having access to all of Sony's support studios and tech will help Ember so much.

There is a reason why Kena was shown off at the Future of Gaming showcase in 20202!

Theres also a reason why kena was shown off in Sonys year end products video 👀

 

Bryank75

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My target if the aim was to even the industry out from an acquisitions perspective would be...

Ubisoft.

Put their content on PSPlus for free and charge full price on Xbox and PC. That would be an absolute hammer blow to Xbox as they are a company that have regular releases and many of the 3rd person action games that sell on Xbox.

CDPR would also be a target and WB.

But Ubisoft does a massive amount of damage to the overturned crab that is Xbox.
 

Remember_Spinal

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Emberlab, Pixelopus, Team Asobi, and Insominac would be a nice group of studios making Pixar-like family friendly games at a high level. Sony needs to balance out the grim darkness of their line up with some high level animated games

I think CDPR would be great get jsut to have a big WRPG and PC Storefront
 

Remember_Spinal

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Sorry, i gottta disagree. I absolutely despise Ubisoft lol

Their games are junk and their overall business model is junk. Sony already makes a better assassins creed and will probably have a better version of far cry and rainbow six within a few years.

They just need to keep poaching their quality talent with Haven and keep it moving. Ain’t no one trying to bring 20k employees onto payroll. I don’t care how it effects xbox i don’t want it to effect me. I want good quality games made with care
 

Bryank75

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WB studios would be insane... Imagine a New IP by Rocksteady with PS budget and resources?

I have been dreaming of a Dr Doom game based on the Book of Doom....I would explode with excitement if Sony bought Rocksteady and had them make it.

Farfetched dream, I know.
 
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Muddasar

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Wouldn't go near WB or Ubisoft.

WB studios is Warner Bros. in name only. You are not getting any IPs with them other than Mortal Kombat. The parent company Warner Bros. owns all the IPs related to DC and they are not for sale.

Ubisoft are bloated and their games are way past their sell by date.

For me Square Enix and Capcom are the only 2 viable purchases. Capcom is probably out of the equation too after the Saudis bought a stake.
 

LightBolt

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Wouldn't go near WB or Ubisoft.

WB studios is Warner Bros. in name only. You are not getting any IPs with them other than Mortal Kombat. The parent company Warner Bros. owns all the IPs related to DC and they are not for sale.

Ubisoft are bloated and their games are way past their sell by date.

For me Square Enix and Capcom are the only 2 viable purchases. Capcom is probably out of the equation too after the Saudis bought a stake.
No Knack Productions? I feel attacked....