What is the deal with Phil Spencer?

[Swolf712]

And I wasn’t implying it did or using the list for that. Someone simply asked “where’s the games”. Again, games take years.

They do, but when it's been years since they were announced and we learn that they're still in pre-production, or that their studios have had to bring in outside partners to actually get production started, it does not reflect well on management at all.

I mean shoot, I remember people questioning if God of War 2018 was in trouble due to a large gap between trailers, or suggesting that TLOU II was having development issues or ND was mismanaged by Sony because it took 4 years for the game to go from what they said was "very early pre-production" to launching. But Xbox reveals a game and then years later we learn it's still only in pre-production and people circled the wagons.

I also remember people claiming God of War Ragnarok was teased at the PS5 showcase to "trick" people into buying the system sooner and yet every game shown before the Series X dropped has yet to come out and people act like you can't criticize Phil, that doing this is unfair. That's what people can't figure out. Phil genuinely seems to get special treatment. Heck, I even recall Phil Spencer trending on twitter ONE TIME with a slightly negative connotation and the Blue Checkmarks were out in force to defend his honor, with at least one I saw saying he was willing to throw hands to do so.

It's plain weird how this man is somehow revered while delivering minimal results for consumers.

 

[BloodMod]

Knack is horrible. Fight me.

Knack is indeed very bad.

 

[IntentionalPun]

The thing about Xbox is their revenue has gone up/up/up.

That's DESPITE their 1st party output. That is DESPITE what happened with Xbox One. And when you have low console sales that effects your revenue a LOT because those things sell for $200-400..

Why?

Well probably Gamepass. The internet loves to pretend it's a joke and every person on Gamepass is only doing $1 deals... and that XBox doesn't sell copies of games, etc....

Yet their revenue ballooned just like the other 2 manufacturers, and at a higher pace... while selling WAY less hardware.

So something is going right for Xbox, no matter what our opinion of XBox is. Satya isn't writing blank checks because Xbox is some financial disaster like people like to claim it is. I think it's PARTLY based on an inflated idea of how big Gamepass and cloud gaming will be.. but it also HAS to be partly based on current financials.

And you can't divorce the lack of 1st party output from Gamepass talk... imagine how much bigger GP would be w/ output from MS that matched Sony's? There's a reason Sony got into the "game sub" game (with PS+) initially, there's a reason they have expanded their game sub options.. because it's LUCRATIVE as hell.

 

[Papacheeks]

The thing about Xbox is their revenue has gone up/up/up.

That's DESPITE their 1st party output. That is DESPITE what happened with Xbox One. And when you have low console sales that effects your revenue a LOT because those things sell for $200-400..

Why?

Well probably Gamepass. The internet loves to pretend it's a joke and every person on Gamepass is only doing $1 deals... and that XBox doesn't sell copies of games, etc....

Yet their revenue ballooned just like the other 2 manufacturers, and at a higher pace... while selling WAY less hardware.

So something is going right for Xbox, no matter what our opinion of XBox is. Satya isn't writing blank checks because Xbox is some financial disaster like people like to claim it is. I think it's PARTLY based on an inflated idea of how big Gamepass and cloud gaming will be.. but it also HAS to be partly based on current financials.

And you can't divorce the lack of 1st party output from Gamepass talk... imagine how much bigger GP would be w/ output from MS that matched Sony's? There's a reason Sony got into the "game sub" game (with PS+) initially, there's a reason they have expanded their game sub options.. because it's LUCRATIVE as hell.

That doesnt add up to the data we have. Sony had 24+ Billion in Revenue, XBox had like 16 Billion. Out of Sony's 24 Billion only 2+Billion was put in the bank after everything was said and done.

As in NET PROFIT. And from my understanding thats after things like operating income and all that are accounted.


So how much is XBox making with a service they pay Developers and third party partners to release their games on their day one? The price for said deals is much higher than a 6-12 month exclusivity deal. Because there are clauses based on user data, depending on how many people download/Play said software on the service.
So there is residual payment to the owners of the game depending on interaction.
With everything Microsoft has spending wise, with them making in revenue 16 Billion compared to sony's 24 Billion and sony only taking home 2-3 Billion how much do you think Xbox division is bringing home?

The math does not add up to them being profitable let alone in the black. With 2022 being a wash for releases both first party and exclusive third party for Gamepass, what do you think user retention and growth will look like by end of year?

 

[laynelane]

The thing about Xbox is their revenue has gone up/up/up.

That's DESPITE their 1st party output. That is DESPITE what happened with Xbox One. And when you have low console sales that effects your revenue a LOT because those things sell for $200-400..

Why?

Well probably Gamepass. The internet loves to pretend it's a joke and every person on Gamepass is only doing $1 deals... and that XBox doesn't sell copies of games, etc....

Yet their revenue ballooned just like the other 2 manufacturers, and at a higher pace... while selling WAY less hardware.

So something is going right for Xbox, no matter what our opinion of XBox is. Satya isn't writing blank checks because Xbox is some financial disaster like people like to claim it is. I think it's PARTLY based on an inflated idea of how big Gamepass and cloud gaming will be.. but it also HAS to be partly based on current financials.

And you can't divorce the lack of 1st party output from Gamepass talk... imagine how much bigger GP would be w/ output from MS that matched Sony's? There's a reason Sony got into the "game sub" game (with PS+) initially, there's a reason they have expanded their game sub options.. because it's LUCRATIVE as hell.

That makes sense. GamePass and cloud gaming have likely pulled in a lot of people from ecosystems like PC and mobile, therefore growing their userbase significantly beyond just those on XBox. In that sense, Phil who is personable and well-liked by XBox fans, is also making a lot of money for MS.

 

[IntentionalPun]

So how much is XBox making with a service they pay Developers and third party partners to release their games on their day one? The price for said deals is much higher than a 6-12 month exclusivity deal. Because there are clauses based on user data, depending on how many people download/Play said software on the service.
So there is residual payment to the owners of the game depending on interaction.
With everything Microsoft has spending wise, with them making in revenue 16 Billion compared to sony's 24 Billion and sony only taking home 2-3 Billion how much do you think Xbox division is bringing home?

The math does not add up to them being profitable let alone in the black. With 2022 being a wash for releases both first party and exclusive third party for Gamepass, what do you think user retention and growth will look like by end of year?

We don't know their profit picture.. we don't know the cost of Gamepass deals either.

Satya (MS CEO) knows though. That's my point... Spencer keeps getting promoted, MS CLEARLY likes what they are seeing. He's on the executive team now.. he's "CEO" of Xbox, that does not happen if MS thinks XBox is some money burning pit.

I'm not saying they have big profit, or even profit at all.. I really don't know that.. but XBox is also a strategic play for MS not just a profit play.... and the powers that be are INCREDIBLY happy with it, clearly.

Armchair guessing what their actual costs are is just sort of ludicrous because of how complicated those estimations are, and how little we know about the deals they make.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Playground has two teams. One released an amazing game already. The other is working on Fable. Yep, it’s been in development for awhile. Games take time.

Obsidian released Outer Worlds a year after being acquired. They have multiple teams working on multiple things. Yep, Avowed has been in development awhile. Thanks for further confirming that yep, games take time. Regarding Grounded, it’s actually longer than two years, they were making that game when MS bought them. It was also a team of like 15 people or something. Games take time.

Yep, NT and UL are working on big games and they aren’t ready yet. Games take time. Personally I’d rather MS take the “hands off” approach they have been described as having and allow these games to bake properly as opposed to something like Crackdown 3 or Cyberpunk but maybe that’s just me.

tl;dr - hey turns out games take time to make

It seems like games only take time for Microsoft. On the other hand, Returnal was conceptualized, created, and shipped within 4 years. Miles Morales started development in April 2019 and was released 19 months later. Final Fantasy VII remake was released in Apr. 2020, and the next game is coming Q4 2023 -- around 3.5 years of dev time.

At what point do people accept that XGS has a management problem?

• Obsidian, Playground Games, Ninja Theory, Rare, Undead Labs, 343i, The Initiative: that's 7 studios that I can think off the top of my head that are having some sorts of management / game development problems.
• Halo was delayed multiple times and still released in an awful shape with 6 months season to pad things up. It will be a year soon, and there isn't any Forge or Co-Op that used be launch features, always.
• Even Forza 5 launched with sever connectivity issues -- many of which still persist today.
• Starfield and Redfall both had to be delayed, and we've seen how awful Starfield looks.
• We've also seen how Crackdown 3 was made and released -- under the same management.

Seriously, genuine question, when can we say that XGS has a management problem?

 

[Heisenberg007]

The thing about Xbox is their revenue has gone up/up/up.

That's DESPITE their 1st party output. That is DESPITE what happened with Xbox One. And when you have low console sales that effects your revenue a LOT because those things sell for $200-400..

Why?

Well probably Gamepass. The internet loves to pretend it's a joke and every person on Gamepass is only doing $1 deals... and that XBox doesn't sell copies of games, etc....

Yet their revenue ballooned just like the other 2 manufacturers, and at a higher pace... while selling WAY less hardware.

So something is going right for Xbox, no matter what our opinion of XBox is. Satya isn't writing blank checks because Xbox is some financial disaster like people like to claim it is. I think it's PARTLY based on an inflated idea of how big Gamepass and cloud gaming will be.. but it also HAS to be partly based on current financials.

And you can't divorce the lack of 1st party output from Gamepass talk... imagine how much bigger GP would be w/ output from MS that matched Sony's? There's a reason Sony got into the "game sub" game (with PS+) initially, there's a reason they have expanded their game sub options.. because it's LUCRATIVE as hell.

Gamepass is not responsible for that revenue, that much is for sure. The revenue from Gamepass hardly exceeds $750-$800 million per year. @thicc_girls_are_teh_best and I both ran the numbers separately, used different methods, and we both arrived at the same mark.

The average ARPU was also around $32 per year -- not $180 per year. And that's because all of the $1 deals and "get 1 month of Gamepass for free with each box of Pringles" type of offers.

 

[IntentionalPun]

That makes sense. GamePass and cloud gaming have likely pulled in a lot of people from ecosystems like PC and mobile, therefore growing their userbase significantly beyond just those on XBox. In that sense, Phil who is personable and well-liked by XBox fans, is also making a lot of money for MS.

Right.

He didn't invent the concept of game subs.. he didn't invent the concept of "all games day 1" game subs (EA did, then Ubisoft followed, then MS).

He just championed it as a console 1st party manufacturer, and mixed that concept with the existing concept of "older 3rd party game subs" like PS+ and XBLG (IIRC Sony was first on that?)

MS leadership clearly likes the direction that went financially and strategically. It's not really logical to think they are just some massive loss internally... especially with how big their revenue has gotten.

 

[IntentionalPun]

Gamepass is not responsible for that revenue, that much is for sure. The revenue from Gamepass hardly exceeds $750-$800 million per year. @thicc_girls_are_teh_best and I both ran the numbers separately, used different methods, and we both arrived at the same mark.

The average ARPU was also around $32 per year -- not $180 per year. And that's because all of the $1 deals and "get 1 month of Gamepass for free with each box of Pringles" type of offers.

And I think your estimates are off. "That much is for sure"? Really? "The average ARPU was".... so you have access to their numbers? WTF? lol

I think people on the internet way underestimate how many are paying the $10/15.

But either way their revenue has ballooned.. whether it's from Gamepass or not isn't THAT relevant as Spencer is in charge of all of it.. he's also the one who championed the move to day one PC too... it's a combo of things obviously, but Gamepass/Cloud are what Satya and other exec's mention when they talk about how well Xbox is doing.

But to your point, Xbox is also selling a lot of games. The thing is, Gamepass is still likely at the core of that, as it's a huge attractor for XBox as well as why a lot of people are sticking around... it's really at the core of their marketing, you can't look up Xbox w/o having it shoved in your face.

 

[DonFerrari]

It seems like games only take time for Microsoft. On the other hand, Returnal was conceptualized, created, and shipped within 4 years. Miles Morales started development in April 2019 and was released 19 months later. Final Fantasy VII remake was released in Apr. 2020, and the next game is coming Q4 2023 -- around 3.5 years of dev time.

At what point do people accept that XGS has a management problem?

• Obsidian, Playground Games, Ninja Theory, Rare, Undead Labs, 343i, The Initiative: that's 7 studios that I can think off the top of my head that are having some sorts of management / game development problems.
• Halo was delayed multiple times and still released in an awful shape with 6 months season to pad things up. It will be a year soon, and there isn't any Forge or Co-Op that used be launch features, always.
• Even Forza 5 launched with sever connectivity issues -- many of which still persist today.
• Starfield and Redfall both had to be delayed, and we've seen how awful Starfield looks.
• We've also seen how Crackdown 3 was made and released -- under the same management.

Seriously, genuine question, when can we say that XGS has a management problem?

Every publisher has games that have troubled developments. Oh no Starfield and Redfall got delayed!!!! lol, who cares. Also since when does Starfield look “terrible”? Looks pretty great to me.

Also why do I care about how quickly Insomniac developed what is essentially a Spider-Man DLC/expansion?

Games take time, friend. I do think it’s funny how the goal posts always move with MS. When they bought these studios it was nothing but “oh no Microsoft is going to micromanage these studios and force them to crap out small shitty GaaS multiplayer GamePass filler!! I hate this!!”

But now it’s “oh no Microsoft is taking a complete hands off approach with all these studios and all of these AAA single player experiences are taking longer than a couple years! I hate this!!!”

Who fucking cares. Games take time.

 

[laynelane]

Right.

He didn't invent the concept of game subs.. he didn't invent the concept of "all games day 1" game subs (EA did, then Ubisoft followed, then MS).

He just championed it as a console 1st party manufacturer, and mixed that concept with the existing concept of "older 3rd party game subs" like PS+ and XBLG (IIRC Sony was first on that?)

MS leadership clearly likes the direction that went financially and strategically. It's not really logical to think they are just some massive loss internally... especially with how big their revenue has gotten.

Perhaps growing their audience has also led to more microtransaction and game purchases, as well. The microtransactions/season pass/DLC, etc., in particular, could play a big role in that revenue increase. I'm not much for sub services so didn't know about the history you provided. It's pretty interesting information. Thanks for that.

 

[nominedomine]

The thing about Xbox is their revenue has gone up/up/up.

That's DESPITE their 1st party output. That is DESPITE what happened with Xbox One. And when you have low console sales that effects your revenue a LOT because those things sell for $200-400..

Why?

Well probably Gamepass. The internet loves to pretend it's a joke and every person on Gamepass is only doing $1 deals... and that XBox doesn't sell copies of games, etc....

Yet their revenue ballooned just like the other 2 manufacturers, and at a higher pace... while selling WAY less hardware.

So something is going right for Xbox, no matter what our opinion of XBox is. Satya isn't writing blank checks because Xbox is some financial disaster like people like to claim it is. I think it's PARTLY based on an inflated idea of how big Gamepass and cloud gaming will be.. but it also HAS to be partly based on current financials.

And you can't divorce the lack of 1st party output from Gamepass talk... imagine how much bigger GP would be w/ output from MS that matched Sony's? There's a reason Sony got into the "game sub" game (with PS+) initially, there's a reason they have expanded their game sub options.. because it's LUCRATIVE as hell.

Revenue is not profit, it's easy too increase the revenue of anything by simply dumping money on it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

And I think your estimates are off. "That much is for sure"? Really? "The average ARPU was".... so you have access to their numbers? WTF? lol

I think people on the internet way underestimate how many are paying the $10/15.

But either way their revenue has ballooned.. whether it's from Gamepass or not isn't THAT relevant as Spencer is in charge of all of it.. he's also the one who championed the move to day one PC too... it's a combo of things obviously, but Gamepass/Cloud are what Satya and other exec's mention when they talk about how well Xbox is doing.

But to your point, Xbox is also selling a lot of games. The thing is, Gamepass is still likely at the core of that, as it's a huge attractor for XBox as well as why a lot of people are sticking around... it's really at the core of their marketing, you can't look up Xbox w/o having it shoved in your face.

And you have the numbers to refute ours? lol. At least, our data was based on various reports that analysts and 3P companies conducted on gaming subscription and their revenue.

The main reason why Xbox's revenue has gone up is because of increased digital add-ons and MTX from live-service games, 3P software sales, and aggressive acquisition that combines revenue of the new studios under the XGS umbrella. Where does all the revenue that Elder Scrolls Online and Fallout 76 go now? It has been now added under the XGS revenue, and XGS revenue "continues to grow."

 

[DynamiteCop]

In 20 years Xbox never had any good games, it hurts to say but it's just the truth.

There's opinion and then there's just objectively asinine posting. You can't be taken seriously.

 

[Sircaw]

In 20 years Xbox never had any good games, it hurts to say but it's just the truth.

if i am being fair and objective i think they have had some good games in there.

The Ori games are extremely good,

Grim dawn is extremely good

That sea of thieves game, which i personally find to look rather boring as hell is still has been very well received by its player base

The Grounded game, i do like the idea behind the game.

Not a fan of car racing games, but the Forza games do look very well made.

Gears of war, i would all give them a go, they might not be masterpieces but i would think you would still have a decent experience with them.

The problem with Microsoft games happens when they are compared to Sony's, that's the real problem for them.

 

[IntentionalPun]

And you have the numbers to refute ours? lol.

No, which is why I don't speak like I know things for a fact. It's definitely a FACT that it's not they make more money from game sales, MS has said as much and nothing I've said goes against that (we are talking growth, which tends to focus on "newer" things). It's also clearly at the core of their marketing, at the core of what their execs say about Xbox, etc.

But sure MS added revenue by buying Bethesda and other devs.. catalog sales went to them post acquisition, etc. Everyone went up from COVID and the gaming boom that happened from that... push to digital increased revenue to 30% per 3rd party sold vs 10-15%, MTX,etc.,etc.

But it's impossible to ignore Gamepass's influence on all of THAT too. It's all intertwined because of the nature of platforms. It's also where everyone is seeing growth including Sony (the sub business).

MS also cites Gamepass often in their financial reports as key to that growth... so there is that too.

 

[IntentionalPun]

Grim dawn is extremely good

Grim dawn isn't Xbox my friendly fish.

 

[Sircaw]

Grim dawn isn't Xbox my friendly fish.

yer but it's exclusive to them, not on PlayStation.

my reply was to, " In 20 years Xbox never had any good games."

Not Xbox has never made their own games.

 

[nominedomine]

if i am being fair and objective i think they have had some good games in there.

The Ori games are good,
Grim dawn is good

That sea of thieves game, which i personally find to look rather boring as hell is still has been very well received by its player base

The Grounded game, i do like the idea behind the game.

Not a fan of car racing games, but the Forza games do look very well made.

Gears of war, i would all give them a go, they might not be masterpieces but i would think you would still have a decent experience with them.

The problem with Microsoft games is when they are compared to Sony's, that's the real problem for them.

Sure, I'm exaggerating, I just wanted people to show up with the list so that we could all look at how sad it is.

It's easy for me to see a pattern in the types of games Nintendo and Sony fans like but when I look at the hardcore Xbox fanbase I just don't get where they are coming from and it just doesn't fit together, to me they are clearly lying to themselves because they at some point made the bad decision of buying an Xbox and got too attached to it.