How long can Microsoft float on goodwill? | Opinion

[Kokoloko]

You said they didn't care about Nintendo but thats ridiculous. Nintendo/TPC published 8 of last year's 10 best selling games. The fact that they are on a Nintendo platform doesn't matter, Minecraft was on a Nintendo platform too. Pretty much everyone has access to the Switch and publishes on it but Nintendo's hardware sold best. When given the opportunity to buy any game ever, at all, of all time, Japan chose Animal Crossing: NH (there's no accounting for taste...)


Your first point is entirely irrelevant. The XBO outsold the Super Nintendo but is considered a failure while SNES was a success. Why? Because they were in different gens with differently sized markets. The PSP was from an era where handheld gaming was bigger and its actual competition was the DS, which outsold it 2 to 1. Vita fared identically to its actual competition, the 3DS. Your second point is also wrong because the biggest issue the Vita had was that it was competing as a handheld in the era of smart-phones and lost to those smartphones. 3DS, while its lifetime sales were large, had a large decline in popularity too. And smart phones are still out there, more ubiquitous than ever with the market for handheld gaming outside of Japan being niche. And as to your third point, the portable nature of the Switch was only one aspect of its popularity (key in Japan but perhaps secondary outside of it.) I'd say having a single platform (which Sony would not have if it re-entered portable gaming) to eliminate release droughts was just as important for Switch, as was having BotW at launch followed by a banger 2017 slate (actual games!) Now you can go and list hypothetical downports of nexgen titles as being comparable in interest to Nintendo's first party offerings but, and this is the key here, the PSP and Vita both had "portable-likes" of all of Sony's first party offerings and Monster Hunter to boot and they both got beaten.

To say nothing of the cost in dev-time to make downports for a device that would be built pretty much solely for the Japanese market. After the first year Sony's western studios would probably stop bothering, most western 3rd parties wouldn't even give it a try (for the most ambitious and/or poorly coded games it might be literally impossible anyway) and you'll be back to the Vita with Tearaway, Gravity Rush and nothing else for the west. And thats just the game drought issue. Lets talk about the cost of such a system. Nintendo sells the default Switch at between 250 and 300 dollars (temporary deals and bundles) and has since its launch 6 years ago. Thats old tech, with a "compromised" battery that doesn't last as long as Nintendo would have wanted. Your PSP3 is comparable to a Steam Deck (your words, not mine) which is a hundred dollars more and sporting a crappy/under-powered battery. For Sony it would be worse on that price front. I'm comparing it to the low end deck with the crappy memory card, nobody's going to want that, and Sony's probably going to have to chip in for a better battery too. And, if its going to be playing PS5 games, well, its actually going to have to be significantly better than a deck on the inside. All of that points to it not being able to hit 400 dollars as a price-point.

So yeah, I'd tell you to have fun with your white elephant but there'd be no point because Sony has no interest in making it.

Theres probably only a few home console only games in the top 20 in Japan of all time, like dragon quest and FF?
Japan is a portable gaming loving nation. And Nintendo has been really smart with it.
But if they were blindly loved like people suggest, then there home consoles wouldn’t have failed in Japan.
The N64 and Gamecube were great consoles, no reason they should of done so bad in Japan. Same as Wii U.

Wii U shared alot of the same games as the Switch but didnt get the same reception in Japan. They did well but nothing like portable software numbers. Which is why it helps to have a portable console for the Japanese market. Plus worldwide

Xbox and Snes are a much wider generation in gap tbh, Im just stating the numbers to see how it did compared to other portables . PSP also sold 80+ million so not sure why you think PS portable are failures, around the same as GBA and 3DS which are generations before/after. Yeah the DS was a monster but PSP did good. Imagine if Gamecube, Dreamcast and OG Xbox done half of PS2, they dont even combined. All fantastic consoles, some of my favourites.

And pretty sure having a PSP increased software sales. If they did it again, they wouldn’t need to make dedicated games, just mostly pure profit.

Yeah your right, those were big issues with Vita, the mobile thing was coming up and was a thing. Even though Vita had some great features, screen, unit, it was a terribly done planned and done product. Yeah it had to deal with mobile, it was just an overall bad time for it and badly made choices. Bad Software support too ( which they wont have the issue again with )

I cant read much more because I cant read in such big paragraphs. I only gave my opinions on what Sony could do to gain some numbers in Japan, its an idea/opinion, not having fun with elephants lol. Its not that serious.

The forum is for people to discuss things, Im not saying Sony will do it, or they have to do it. Or it would win the portable war. Im just saying it would help Sony’s software sales in Japan.
FF16 and FF7 Remake would probably top the chart for a week and then disappear. But it would have longer legs with portable sales in Japan, just like other games. They’d do better numbers having portable sales.

I still think they should make an attempt at Portable console, same with Xbox, the market and tech is getting better and better so it would be a waste not being able to play those games on the go eventually.

 

[Zzero]

Theres probably only a few home console only games in the top 20 in Japan of all time, like dragon quest and FF?

We aren't talking portable vs home consoles, we are talking Nintendo. Nintendo dominated last year's sales charts and I am fairly confident that they dominate all-time sales charts but the only link I can find, a top 30 sales chart, is a decade old. 22 of the 30 games are published by Nintendo/TPC and even if you take out Pokemon you still have Nintendo, the publisher, publishing more games than everyone else combined. Japan loves Nintendo games.

But if they were blindly loved like people suggest, then there home consoles wouldn’t have failed in Japan.

Nintendo came in third to the PS1 and Saturn and second to the PS2 but its won literally every other generation in Japan. Even the PS4, which dominated the Wii U, got its ass handed to it by the Switch. This is not a subjective quality thing, its pure sales numbers. Japan loves to buy Nintendo games. They especially love them portable (PSP3 would be a terrible idea...) but they get them in-home as well.

Xbox and Snes are a much wider generation in gap tbh, Im just stating the numbers to see how it did compared to other portables . PSP also sold 80+ million so not sure why you think PS portable are failures, around the same as GBA and 3DS which are generations before/after. Yeah the DS was a monster but PSP did good. Imagine if Gamecube, Dreamcast and OG Xbox done half of PS2, they dont even combined. All fantastic consoles, some of my favourites.

You are being, as I said, disingenuous here. Both portable Playstations had a direct Nintendo analog. Both got outsold by them. In Japan, out of Japan, same story both times.

And pretty sure having a PSP increased software sales. If they did it again, they wouldn’t need to make dedicated games, just mostly pure profit.

In the entire history of gaming this has not worked once. Not one time ever. Making a system but no games for it has never worked. You should be ashamed for even bringing an argument like that in here, Mr. Stadia.

The forum is for people to discuss things, Im not saying Sony will do it, or they have to do it. Or it would win the portable war. Im just saying it would help Sony’s software sales in Japan.

Doing anything would help software sales. They could come out with a range of limited edition cases with purple instead of white on the top and it would create a very small bump in sales due to hardcore collectors. But that bump in sales would not be enough to offset the investment of time and resources that would need to be put into it. Same as developing a gimped PS5 portable with a focus on the Japanese market (and downporting games for it.)

 

[peter42O]

10 million is a lot and too much to ignore and they are supply constrainted.

I think they should target getting 15 million or more sold this generation.

I know the population is shrinking in Japan and they are literally giving away houses there but I still think there are enough customers to buy max 20 million.

I'll be shocked if Sony even hits 10m this generation and will depend on how long the generation goes. Last generation was 7 years. I believe this generation goes 8 years. Unless Sony does a hybrid console like Nintendo, I just don't see it happening.

 

[Zzero]

I'll be shocked if Sony even hits 10m this generation and will depend on how long the generation goes. Last generation was 7 years. I believe this generation goes 8 years. Unless Sony does a hybrid console like Nintendo, I just don't see it happening.

Me too, not a quality issue, more Japan's birth-rate collapse, plus stagnant quality of life, plus general Japanese apathy towards home consoles, which is baked in at this point and not going away unless something actively comes along to change it.

 

[Kokoloko]

We aren't talking portable vs home consoles, we are talking Nintendo. Nintendo dominated last year's sales charts and I am fairly confident that they dominate all-time sales charts but the only link I can find, a top 30 sales chart, is a decade old. 22 of the 30 games are published by Nintendo/TPC and even if you take out Pokemon you still have Nintendo, the publisher, publishing more games than everyone else combined. Japan loves Nintendo games.

And the top sales is owned by portable hybrid games And portable games. I never said they don’t dominate the charts, just saying its portable charts. But before, in the PS1/PS2/PS3 /N64/Gamecube/Wii days it was more mixed. Yeah the DS dominated alot but PS would be in the charts alot more.
The way I see it, Japan loves portables. Even the same games do better on portable Like consoles. If you want a bit of the pie, take a bit.

Nintendo came in third to the PS1 and Saturn and second to the PS2 but its won literally every other generation in Japan. Even the PS4, which dominated the Wii U, got its ass handed to it by the Switch. This is not a subjective quality thing, its pure sales numbers. Japan loves to buy Nintendo games. They especially love them portable (PSP3 would be a terrible idea...) but they get them in-home as well.

Theres different ways to look at it I guess. If there was so much love where was it before? Why is it mostly portable games in the top 20 charts. Why such bad Japan Sales for N64, Gamecube, Wii U? Why were Wii U games so ignored? Or Gamecube, or even

You are being, as I said, disingenuous here. Both portable Playstations had a direct Nintendo analog. Both got outsold by them. In Japan, out of Japan, same story both times.

Which is fine, theres still lots of money to be made. Japanese and worldwide customers wouldnt mind games like God of War Ragnarok, FF16, RE4remake, Street Fighter 6, FF7remake, Spiderman 2, GTA6, Monster Hunter, Tekken 8 etc. Would you like to play these games in the future on portable. Im there are some portable game players that would. I would.

In the entire history of gaming this has not worked once. Not one time ever. Making a system but no games for it has never worked. You should be ashamed for even bringing an argument like that in here, Mr. Stadia.

They could have PS4/PS5 library day 1 with plenty of games in the future. Like SteamDeck. No need for both portable games and home console games.

Doing anything would help software sales. They could come out with a range of limited edition cases with purple instead of white on the top and it would create a very small bump in sales due to hardcore collectors. But that bump in sales would not be enough to offset the investment of time and resources that would need to be put into it. Same as developing a gimped PS5 portable with a focus on the Japanese market (and downporting games for it.)

I dunno, I think selling 40-80 million units in today market would give them some decent sales.
I dont think they would be too gimped out if they use something like next years technology. Steamdeck will soon be having Returnal and TLOU1 Remake which are both PS5 current gen games. If they run 30fps and games have an unlocked setting which games do now days, it will be fine.
Again not saying it has to happen, but eventually Id like to see both PS and Xbox try the market again.

 

[Kokoloko]

I'll be shocked if Sony even hits 10m this generation and will depend on how long the generation goes. Last generation was 7 years. I believe this generation goes 8 years. Unless Sony does a hybrid console like Nintendo, I just don't see it happening.

I think they have hit 2million even with stock issues and no major Japanese centric games yet. This year should be good test to see if they will make 10million again.

Agreed, they need a hyrbid/ portable.

 

[peter42O]

I think they have hit 2million even with stock issues and no major Japanese centric games yet. This year should be good test to see if they will make 10million again.

Agreed, they need a hyrbid/ portable.

2023 should definitely be a good indicator on if they can shit 10m in Japan. I just think that Japan is done with console gaming in general.

A hybrid/portable would work a lot better in Japan as it's just what it is there.

 

[Zzero]

I never said they don’t dominate the charts...

Yep. Japan doesnt give much of a shit about Nintendo as those consoles clearly showed.

The way I see it, Japan loves portables.

Nobody is saying that they don't. Japan is not a big enough market to make a unique high-powered device for, these days. That stuff all costs money, designing the system, setting up production lines, down-porting games, potentially selling at a loss, it all costs money. And it definitely won't out-sell the Switch. It would actually be up against the Switch's successor for most of its life but we don't know what that is going to be.

Why such bad Japan Sales for N64, Gamecube, Wii U? Why were Wii U games so ignored? Or Gamecube, or even

Those "failed" or under-performed in all markets. NES, SNES, Wii and Switch did great in all regions where Nintendo showed up (not Europe.)

Which is fine, theres still lots of money to be made. Japanese and worldwide customers wouldnt mind games like God of War Ragnarok, FF16, RE4remake, Street Fighter 6, FF7remake, Spiderman 2, GTA6, Monster Hunter, Tekken 8 etc. Would you like to play these games in the future on portable. Im there are some portable game players that would. I would.

There's your list again. Third time you posted it. A whole bunch of hypothetical games, zero reason to believe that they would come over, especially stuff like RE4make, GTA (Rockstar really wants that Japanese market, lol,) SF6, Spiderman, etc. What on earth makes you think that Sony can put a PS5 in a handheld when the console version is so big it won't fit in many traditional tv set-ups.

They could have PS4/PS5 library day 1 with plenty of games in the future. Like SteamDeck. No need for both portable games and home console games.

The deck struggles with stuff like that. It has the battery to play God of War for 90 minutes. Thats awful. The Switch conking out after three hours is sad and this is half of that.

I dunno, I think selling 40-80 million units in today market would give them some decent sales.

Cute, the Vita did less than 6 million in Japan. Thats what you are looking at.

You also don't seem to appreciate that Switch's biggest hits required a lot of thought to be put into them to make them work for both home and handheld play. Game design stuff like save-points, challenge lengths, how multiplayer functions, text size and UI. When console games come to handhelds (or vice versa) this stuff often leaves them feeling like an inferior product, regardless of system specs. Since the Switch was natively designed to do both, and since Nintendo are experts at both, they managed to incorporate that universality into the games. Back-porting PS4/5 games won't do that.

 

[Kokoloko]

And Ill stick to it. Show me a chart where Nintendo home console games dominated…. Every game is portable.
They dont care about Nintendo unless its portable.

Nobody is saying that they don't. Japan is not a big enough market to make a unique high-powered device for, these days. That stuff all costs money, designing the system, setting up production lines, down-porting games, potentially selling at a loss, it all costs money. And it definitely won't out-sell the Switch. It would actually be up against the Switch's successor for most of its life but we don't know what that is going to be.

But a PSP3 wouldnt just be for Japan, it would be worldwide. It would help software sales worldwide and in especially Japan.
It doesnt need to out-sell Switch.
Im sure Sony knows how to make a portable and what goes into it. I mean Steam released a unit, Im sure Sony could afford it too lol.
Just because they mess up once doesnt mean they will again. Theyve been pretty succesful for awhile.

Those "failed" or under-performed in all markets. NES, SNES, Wii and Switch did great in all regions where Nintendo showed up (not Europe.)


There's your list again. Third time you posted it. A whole bunch of hypothetical games, zero reason to believe that they would come over, especially stuff like RE4make, GTA (Rockstar really wants that Japanese market, lol,) SF6, Spiderman, etc. What on earth makes you think that Sony can put a PS5 in a handheld when the console version is so big it won't fit in many traditional tv set-ups.

This is a hypothetical discussion. A forum discussing games past, present and future and potential scenarios right?
Im talking worldwide aswell, the world would be interested in GTA6, Spiderman 2 etc. You dont think people would play them? Just like the Japanese wouldnt be interested in FF or DragonQuest portable? It would definetly help them with some sales. No need to worry about getting a whole studio to make a game with a small userbase And it failing.

Returnal and TLOU1 Remake are coming in the next 6months to Steamdeck, thiswill show how well they will run on portable.
If they can run at 60fps, that would be cool. If not, the tech will be there in a couple of years.
So if Returnal and TLOU1 can run on a portable. They will at least be available why cant Street Fighter 6, RE4 and GTA6?

GTA6 will probably run on Steamdeck… as will the others. So why not. Its not in the land of fantasy. Its a waste just having Steam making portables for this gen. Yeah the battery isnt great but neither was BOTW or Doom on Switch. Why my Switch is mostly used in Dock.

The deck struggles with stuff like that. It has the battery to play God of War for 90 minutes. Thats awful. The Switch conking out after three hours is sad and this is half of that.

Yes tech gets better and better. Both Steamdeck and Switch have awful battery life. I expect the same from everyone For awhile.

Cute, the Vita did less than 6 million in Japan. Thats what you are looking at.

So because Vita sold 6 million, so there next portable would do the same?

How much did the Wii U sell in Japan. “Nintendo loving Japan“ bought 3.3+M Units. Wow I feel the love from the Japanese people for Nintendo. Gamecube 4M. N64 5.5M. I dont think PS has ever had less than 10M units sold in Japan apart from Vita.

The OG Xbox sold 20m? So they shouldnt have made a 360? Nintendo, PS etc, can have a bad generation and turn it around, like PS3 to PS4. Wii U to Switch. Gamecube to Wii etc.

You also don't seem to appreciate that Switch's biggest hits required a lot of thought to be put into them to make them work for both home and handheld play. Game design stuff like save-points, challenge lengths, how multiplayer functions, text size and UI. When console games come to handhelds (or vice versa) this stuff often leaves them feeling like an inferior product, regardless of system specs. Since the Switch was natively designed to do both, and since Nintendo are experts at both, they managed to incorporate that universality into the games. Back-porting PS4/5 games won't do that.

Im sure they can unlock games for portable versions. Its not like every delveoper is going through there library to get games working on the Steamdeck.

Just reminding you this is all hypothetical.
Im combing the idea that PS/Xbox can make a portable like Steamdeck in the future. And play their library of games on handheld.
I also think PS could sell more software because of this in Japan and worldwide. Same with Xbox.

Anyway, we can agree to disagree. You think PS shouldnt release another handheld. I think they should in the future, its all good. My points arent convincing you and neither are you points convincing me.