Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard

KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
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Where it’s at.
Hmm, I had thought that the console market was pretty small over there given that a ban was only just recently lifted.
That’s the thing, you can’t look at this as just a console thing, this is the largest software company in the world trying to bug the biggest game publisher in the world.
 

AshHunter216

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That’s the thing, you can’t look at this as just a console thing, this is the largest software company in the world trying to bug the biggest game publisher in the world.
I see. Not sure what the politics concerning deals like this over there are though.
 
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The CMA found in their investigation that a large number of people buy these consoles for access to COD.
I won't argue with the CMA and I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I don't agree with that finding as the root cause of why people move consoles.

For example, a lot of people (95%+) who played CoD/Fortnite/Popular kid game on xbox 360 swapped to PS4 at the start of that generation. It caught my attention because of how many were devout Xbox fans. Almost all answered "my friends picked up a PS4 so we play fortnite/cod on there". They went on to explain that PS4 was just the better console and everyone they knew was buying one.

Would those same people stayed with Xbox and bought an Xbox One over PS4 if CoD was exclusive to Xbox? Perhaps, but I doubt it. In that scenario I could see CoD been left behind in favour of Fortnite.

I think it's inconsequential what game is on the system, if the system is popular. Popular system is weighted more than popular game.
 

AshHunter216

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The CMA investigation was multiple choice and almost 70% of people said yes to both "we buy PS for Sony exclusives" and "we buy PS for CoD" so it isn't a very accurate representation. Also, the CMA report was based on 1,397 responses. It's a sample size, but a very small one.
Both answers can be true at once, and you have to look at it from the perspective of a casual gamer. Access to COD is a big deal for most.
 
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KiryuRealty

Cambridge Dictionary High Priest of Grammar
28 Nov 2022
6,646
8,165
Where it’s at.
I won't argue with the CMA and I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I don't agree with that finding as the root cause of why people move consoles.

For example, a lot of people (95%+) who played CoD/Fortnite/Popular kid game on xbox 360 swapped to PS4 at the start of that generation. It caught my attention because of how many were devout Xbox fans. Almost all answered "my friends picked up a PS4 so we play fortnite/cod on there". They went on to explain that PS4 was just the better console and everyone they knew was buying one.

Would those same people stayed with Xbox and bought an Xbox One over PS4 if CoD was exclusive to Xbox? Perhaps, but I doubt it. In that scenario I could see CoD been left behind in favour of Fortnite.

I think it's inconsequential what game is on the system, if the system is popular. Popular system is weighted more than popular game.
The 30-day lockout for DLC that Activision gave PS3 when Xbox had the marketing for COD definitely swayed which platform people bought the game on, and if your friends play on one platform, you’re probably not going to buy the other one if you want to play with them, right?

For casual gamers, it can be HUGE in determining which system to buy based on which one has one particular game, or even just has the marketing for it.
 
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AshHunter216

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Two massive global companies in the same market merging isn’t going to be ignored there. Gaming in China is primarily on PCs, so the impact there from this would be too big to ignore.
Then we'd have to look at the PC gaming market over there and what the field looks like. They may have decided that the deal wouldn't affect the market much over there.
 
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The 30-day lockout for DLC that Activision gave PS3 when Xbox had the marketing for COD definitely swayed which platform people bought the game on, and if your friends play on one platform, you’re probably not going to buy the other one if you want to play with them, right?

For casual gamers, it can be HUGE in determining which system to buy based on which one has one particular game, or even just has the marketing for it.
I don't disagree but the xbox 360 was the more popular console (here in the UK) before either even launched. The word of mouth was better, so more people picked up a 360, which means more people owned that console. By the time CoD got popular with MW2, most people had a 360.

On the flip side - despite/in spite of the media attack on Sony, PS4 had better word of mouth and was more popular. It became the default place to play Fortnite and CoD. CoD going exclusive to xbox would kill CoD, not Sony. To be clear, I don't agree with this merger and CoD/Sony/Nintendo have nothing to do with the reasons why.
 

adamsapple

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Both answers can be true at once, and you have to look at it from the perspective of a casual gamer. Access to COD is a big deal for most.

Both can be true at once, but that also means if you remove CoD from the equation it still leaves up to 70% of PS console owners who buy it just for Sony exclusives.

Besides, they are not going to lose access to CoD even if the deal goes through.
 
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Satoru

Satoru

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The CMA investigation was multiple choice and almost 70% of people said yes to both "we buy PS for Sony exclusives" and "we buy PS for CoD" so it isn't a very accurate representation. Also, the CMA report was based on 1,397 responses. It's a sample size, but a very small one.

Again, you don't know how statistics work. Here's an old article that kinda drives the point home.

 

adamsapple

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Again, you don't know how statistics work. Here's an old article that kinda drives the point home.


Thank you for the link.

It was helpful to corroborate what I said.

If your sample is too small, you may include a disproportionate number of individuals which are outliers and anomalies. These skew the results and you don’t get a fair picture of the whole population.
 

AshHunter216

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Both can be true at once, but that also means if you remove CoD from the equation it still leaves up to 70% of PS console owners who buy it just for Sony exclusives.

Besides, they are not going to lose access to CoD even if the deal goes through.
The data doesn't say whether they would stay for one if they lost the other.
 
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Satoru

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Thank you for the link.

It was helpful to corroborate what I said.

Did you read? It's literally at the bottom of the document

Here’s a worked example, assuming you chose a 95% confidence level, .5 standard deviation, and a margin of error (confidence interval) of +/- 5%.

((1.96)2 x .5(.5)) / (.05)2

(3.8416 x .25) / .0025

.9604 / .0025

384.16

385 respondents are needed
 

AshHunter216

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I dunno, I think a lot of folks are downplaying the impact of COD because they really want the deal to go through. I get it, they want their platform of choice to finally get a massive leg up (that they could wield in numerous ways against their competition if they play their cards right) after so long. They also want more "free" Gamepass stuff.
 
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adamsapple

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Did you read? It's literally at the bottom of the document


What is the confidence level and margin of error for the CMA report ?

I dunno, I think a lot of folks are downplaying the impact of COD because they really want the deal to go through. I get it, they want their platform of choice to finally get a massive leg up after so long. They also want more "free" Gamepass stuff.

No one's downplaying the impact of CoD, but some are overblowing the outcome. CoD is not going to leave the PS platforms, it will also come to Nintendo platforms people with Geforce Now.
 
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Satoru

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adamsapple

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Go ask them. Your claim was to try and sell that 1.4k responses is too small of a sample size, which is demonstrably bullshit. Don't move goalposts.

Move goalposts ? Don't get stuck on terminology lol, 1400 people is a very small sample size considering they approached 40,000 people. Maybe you can put response size in place of sample size if that makes it more palatable.