Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard

Cool hand luke

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14 Feb 2023
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Why are there so many astroturfers out of the leash today.
Stock manipulation. PR doesn't affect the CMA but it does affect stock traders, especially in retail. The media did not bother to verify that a deal had been struck with the CMA, they just rolled with Microsoft's claim to have offered a small divestiture (wholly inappropriate), that we now know was once again REJECTED.

Microsoft went to the CMA, cap in hand, bent the knee, and said please, sir, I want some more [time to present a plan].

The CMA isn't isolated or feeling pressured; it's Microsoft who came to them knowing full well that they were impassable and that the final notice was definitive. They would never get past the CAT, they were about to pay ABK 3b (still might), and they needed more time. The only thing they succeeded in doing was giving the CMA more time to prep their case, which they asked for but were denied by the CAT. If the deadline is extended, courts will be less sympathetic to Microsoft's requests for an accelerated trial when they've demonstrated they can just extend internal deadlines to whatever suits without jeapordising the deal.
 

historia

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Stock manipulation. PR doesn't affect the CMA but it does affect stock traders, especially in retail. The media did not bother to verify that a deal had been struck with the CMA, they just rolled with Microsoft's claim to have offered a small divestiture (wholly inappropriate), that we now know was once again REJECTED.

Microsoft went to the CMA, cap in hand, bent the knee, and said please, sir, I want some more [time to present a plan].

The CMA isn't isolated or feeling pressured; it's Microsoft who came to them knowing full well that they were impassable and that the final notice was definitive. They would never get past the CAT, they were about to pay ABK 3b (still might), and they needed more time. The only thing they succeeded in doing was giving the CMA more time to prep their case, which they asked for but were denied by the CAT. If the deadline is extended, courts will be less sympathetic to Microsoft's requests for an accelerated trial when they've demonstrated they can just extend internal deadlines to whatever suits without jeapordising the deal.
I don't fully understand the situation but on social media the bots and astroturfers celebrated like England bring home the WC or something.

Considering MSFT controlling the media I wouldn't the surprise if all of it was smokes and mirrors.
 

Ezekiel

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21 Jun 2022
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So the facts are :

CMA final report and block of the current deal still intact.

MS abandoned the CAT appeal for the current deal.

Either MS makes a completely new deal with ABK, which will require every international regulatory body to re-evaluate the new deal in full, or they simply abandon the current deal and walk away.

Am I missing something?
 

ksdixon

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An analysis I read about the whole deal:
Currently ATVI share is at 90.5, total net worth at 70.4B, more than MSFY proposed buyout at 69B.

If the deal fell through, share would drop by 9-15% value back to 79-82, total net worth at 61-64B, plus 3B breakup fee.

So if MSFT and ATVI to renegotiate an extension, ATVI could demand 90B dollars. Do you think that MSFT will accept 90B buyout of ATVI?
I know the CMA is back at the table, but I thought the previous CMA mandates they could aquire nor essentially collude for 10 years still stood?
 

Cool hand luke

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So the facts are :

CMA final report and block of the current deal still intact.

MS abandoned the CAT appeal for the current deal.

Either MS makes a completely new deal with ABK, which will require every international regulatory body to re-evaluate the new deal in full, or they simply abandon the current deal and walk away.

Am I missing something?
I'm not sure about point 3 re: all regulatory bodies needing to re-review. It follows logically and I've seen it mentioned on Gaf. Source?

MS was clearly trying to do something before the clock ran out here. They're the only party feeling pressure, and it's so intense that it leads one to believe Bobby is looking at taking his 3b and going home. We'll find out next week
 

Ezekiel

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Am i reading too much into Bobby kotick being interviewed like an hour ago and no mention of an extension?
I'm sure he's happy with how ABK stock completely rebounded, and then some, and 3 billion USD waiting for him.
 

Cool hand luke

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I don't fully understand the situation but on social media the bots and astroturfers celebrated like England bring home the WC or something.

Considering MSFT controlling the media I wouldn't the surprise if all of it was smokes and mirrors.
@Heisenberg007 had a great summary on gaf:


Institutional investors (hedge funds etc) who were betting on the acquisition win big anyway even when it's abandoned, which looks increasingly likely by July 18th. Retail investors (like you or me, but hopefully Florian and @Welfare) who thought they'd get in on the gravy train, bought shares now or earlier, and are sitting on them greedily hoping for 95 are going to take a haircut when the price drops after the deal is abandoned.
 
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gokuss4

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@Heisenberg007 had a great summary on gaf:

What did he say
Can you give a summary if you don't mind of course
Cuz i hate going to gaf
 

Ezekiel

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21 Jun 2022
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I'm not sure about point 3 re: all regulatory bodies needing to re-review. It follows logically and I've seen it mentioned on Gaf. Source?

MS was clearly trying to do something before the clock ran out here. They're the only party feeling pressure, and it's so intense that it leads one to believe Bobby is looking at taking his 3b and going home. We'll find out next week
The current deal was conditional to some regulatory approvals and deadline of July 18th*.

We know the CMA block of the current deal is intact, and we know it's too late to offer remedies (about 4 months too late), so it follows that either MS renegotiate a new deal with ABK (new date, new conditions and new price!) or they simply walk away (and give ABK 3 billion).

I don't really see another avenue here.

And a new deal would need to be re-evaluated in full, I assume. They can't really fast track an approval unless the scope is now very narrow, like only buying Blizzard and King.

*Edit : It might not be a hard deadline, but after July 18th, ABK can walk away and collect 3 billion. I'm not sure there's a good enough reason not do that.
 
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historia

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The current deal was conditional to some regulatory approvals and deadline of July 18th.

We know the CMA block of the current deal is intact, and we know it's too late to offer remedies (about 4 months too late), so it follows that either MS renegotiate a new deal with ABK (new date, new conditions and new price!) or they simply walk away (and give ABK 3 billion).

I don't really see another avenue here.

And a new deal would need to be re-evaluated in full, I assume. They can't really fast track an approval unless the scope is now very narrow, like only buying Blizzard and King.
We all know what is this deal is about: COD. To shrink their competitor revenue source and marketshare.

If they want King they could propose to ATVI outright.
 

Dabaus

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@Heisenberg007 had a great summary on gaf:


Institutional investors (hedge funds etc) who were betting on the acquisition win big anyway even when it's abandoned, which looks increasingly likely by July 18th. Retail investors (like you or me, but hopefully Florian and @Welfare) who thought they'd get in on the gravy train, bought shares now or earlier, and are sitting on them greedily hoping for 95 are going to take a haircut when the price drops after the deal is abandoned.
I think this is whats happening. I dont think there's enough time for the CMA to fold even if they wanted to if they have to do a new review. MS isnt going to close over them. This is a spike in the stock so everyone can sell while its high. We're less than a week away, Kotick was just interviewed and there is still no mention of an extension. CMA doubled down again today and ftc is looking likely to appeal, if that means anything.

Anything can happen i guess. We'll see.
 

Gods&Monsters

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The current deal was conditional to some regulatory approvals and deadline of July 18th.

We know the CMA block of the current deal is intact, and we know it's too late to offer remedies (about 4 months too late), so it follows that either MS renegotiate a new deal with ABK (new date, new conditions and new price!) or they simply walk away (and give ABK 3 billion).

I don't really see another avenue here.

And a new deal would need to be re-evaluated in full, I assume. They can't really fast track an approval unless the scope is now very narrow, like only buying Blizzard and King.
That bitch Corley really thought she was helping MS to close the deal asap by changing the dates. Hope she gets disbarred and dragged to jail.
 

historia

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That bitch Corley really thought she was helping MS to close the deal asap by changing the dates. Hope she gets disbarred and dragged to jail.
Federal district judge has so much power though, the system is broken.

Not only she ruled early, makes a lot of immature mistake in her final report but she also reduce bussiness halt to 3d. Like wtf?