Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard

[Ezekiel]

I dunno; will ABK want to risk losing out on $69 billion due to being too greedy for even Microsoft? If it's a choice between $3 billion and $69 billion, and they're both about equally guaranteed, ABK will likely just re-negotiate at the current offer price vs. pushing for an equivalent premium to where the stock is now (which would put the price above $100 billion).

Something is telling me MS & ABK will come to an agreement on the original offer price, and make it so they can close the deal in other markets outside of the UK while they work something out with the CMA over a couple months or whatever, and then close there. I'd much rather be proven wrong about this speculation, than speculate the chances are high the deal fails, because at least this way I can be pleasantly surprised.



Agreed but I don't think ABK are going to ask for extra money TBH. They were already overvalued (IMO) at $69 billion, and I think they know that. They don't want to risk Microsoft walking away and leaving them with "only" $3 billion when they could've easily gotten more than 20x that amount.

I never understood this 'close everywhere except the UK' argument.

It's a one time global closure, from my understanding. They can't sell in some countries and not in another.

They're both American public companies. Once the acquisition is made and 95$ per share is payed and ATVI is delisted from the stock exchange, that's the end.

If that happens now or on Monday, they would automatically be illegally merged because the CMA decision stands.

 

[Nhomnhom]

I never understood this 'close everywhere except the UK' argument.

It's a one time global closure, from my understanding. They can't sell in some countries and not in another.

They're both American public companies. Once the acquisition is made and 95$ per share is payed and ATVI is delisted from the stock exchange, that's the end.

If that happens now or on Monday, they would automatically be illegally merged because the CMA decision stands.

The CMA and MS working on something one day before the 18th tells the entire tale, they are going to buckle. A deal was made with the CMA on the side, at least it's looking like that.

 

[Dr Bass]

The CMA and MS working on something one day before the 18th tells the entire tale, they are going to buckle. A deal was made with the CMA on the side, at least it's looking like that.

Did you see this?

 

[Nhomnhom]

Did you see this?

Let's hope that is it but that Tom Warren guy is just a MS mouthpiece what is he trying to accomplish? If the deal was at risk shouldn't he be pressuring ABK to sign a new deal? Feels like MS is about to get assurance and the blessing from the CMA to close it.

 

[Dabaus]

Tom “Everything is on track.”

Cma: “we’ve delayed until end of august “

 

[Swift_Star]

Monday will be spicy.

the wording makes it sound that nothing will be settled on Monday.
Am I reading this right?

 

[FatKaz]

Let's hope that is it but that Tom Warren guy is just a MS mouthpiece what is he trying to accomplish? If the deal was at risk shouldn't he be pressuring ABK to sign a new deal? Feels like MS is about to get assurance and the blessing from the CMA to close it.

There is no hoping here, the CMA have made it clear what they are doing.

It is upto folks now whether they continue believing microsoft shills.

 

[AshHunter216]

Paul Tassi makes so many obnoxious fanboy articles. Google randomly recommended one to me on my phone.

 

[Dr Bass]

the wording makes it sound that nothing will be settled on Monday.
Am I reading this right?

Looks that way to me. Just seems like a procedural thing for cancelling the CAT hearing.

 

[Dr Bass]

Let's hope that is it but that Tom Warren guy is just a MS mouthpiece what is he trying to accomplish? If the deal was at risk shouldn't he be pressuring ABK to sign a new deal? Feels like MS is about to get assurance and the blessing from the CMA to close it.

How could Tom put pressure on anyone aside from the pizza delivery guy to show up on time?

 

[Zzero]

the wording makes it sound that nothing will be settled on Monday.
Am I reading this right?

There won't be a final agreement with the CMA but they might agree to not fine MS/AB while it merges, pending the final agreement to be signed no later than August. Despite Pacter's musings we have no idea what it is that Microsoft approached the CMA with (or whether it was them approaching at all of if the CMA had some olive branch) but it at least seems like both sides are on the same page and are either just working on details or already have the details and just need the CMA to run its numbers again.

As to the US side of things. The merge occurring doesn't actually kill the FTC's case, they can continue the appeals process and if successful force divestment (if anything, the merge prohibition was for the benefit of Microsoft and Activision shareholders and "the economy" rather than anyone else, because they were the ones who would be hurt if the deal was found after the fact to prevent competition and got unwound.) However, in the long term the FTC was always going to have a hard time "winning in the end" in the US, if appeals were to be exhausted due to the conservative makeup of the US Supreme Court. It was always more of an aim to win at the lower level, beat the initial expiration date and then have the two merging parties "give up" and turn to other things.

Regardless, its almost pointless to speculate at this point since we will be in a drastically different situation by the time Monday rolls around, we might as well just wait and see what it is.

 

[historia]

There won't be a final agreement with the CMA but they might agree to not fine MS/AB while it merges, pending the final agreement to be signed no later than August. Despite Pacter's musings we have no idea what it is that Microsoft approached the CMA with (or whether it was them approaching at all of if the CMA had some olive branch) but it at least seems like both sides are on the same page and are either just working on details or already have the details and just need the CMA to run its numbers again.

As to the US side of things. The merge occurring doesn't actually kill the FTC's case, they can continue the appeals process and if successful force divestment (if anything, the merge prohibition was for the benefit of Microsoft and Activision shareholders and "the economy" rather than anyone else, because they were the ones who would be hurt if the deal was found after the fact to prevent competition and got unwound.) However, in the long term the FTC was always going to have a hard time "winning in the end" in the US, if appeals were to be exhausted due to the conservative makeup of the US Supreme Court. It was always more of an aim to win at the lower level, beat the initial expiration date and then have the two merging parties "give up" and turn to other things.

Regardless, its almost pointless to speculate at this point since we will be in a drastically different situation by the time Monday rolls around, we might as well just wait and see what it is.

Almost impressive how you write all of that and still write nothinf

 

[Dr Bass]

There won't be a final agreement with the CMA but they might agree to not fine MS/AB while it merges, pending the final agreement to be signed no later than August. Despite Pacter's musings we have no idea what it is that Microsoft approached the CMA with (or whether it was them approaching at all of if the CMA had some olive branch) but it at least seems like both sides are on the same page and are either just working on details or already have the details and just need the CMA to run its numbers again.

As to the US side of things. The merge occurring doesn't actually kill the FTC's case, they can continue the appeals process and if successful force divestment (if anything, the merge prohibition was for the benefit of Microsoft and Activision shareholders and "the economy" rather than anyone else, because they were the ones who would be hurt if the deal was found after the fact to prevent competition and got unwound.) However, in the long term the FTC was always going to have a hard time "winning in the end" in the US, if appeals were to be exhausted due to the conservative makeup of the US Supreme Court. It was always more of an aim to win at the lower level, beat the initial expiration date and then have the two merging parties "give up" and turn to other things.

Regardless, its almost pointless to speculate at this point since we will be in a drastically different situation by the time Monday rolls around, we might as well just wait and see what it is.

We have no idea what "page" they are on.

MS knew they lost, and would lose. They cancelled the appeal and said can we offer something else? I don't think it is even possible for the CMA to say "no" to this. Their job is to evaluate proppsals and say yes or no. Everyone thought they would fly through the first approval process too.

CMA has to consider their next proposal to act in good faith. And they could just as easily say no again. Nobody knows what is going on except for those directly involved.

 

[reziel]

There won't be a final agreement with the CMA but they might agree to not fine MS/AB while it merges, pending the final agreement to be signed no later than August. Despite Pacter's musings we have no idea what it is that Microsoft approached the CMA with (or whether it was them approaching at all of if the CMA had some olive branch) but it at least seems like both sides are on the same page and are either just working on details or already have the details and just need the CMA to run its numbers again.

As to the US side of things. The merge occurring doesn't actually kill the FTC's case, they can continue the appeals process and if successful force divestment (if anything, the merge prohibition was for the benefit of Microsoft and Activision shareholders and "the economy" rather than anyone else, because they were the ones who would be hurt if the deal was found after the fact to prevent competition and got unwound.) However, in the long term the FTC was always going to have a hard time "winning in the end" in the US, if appeals were to be exhausted due to the conservative makeup of the US Supreme Court. It was always more of an aim to win at the lower level, beat the initial expiration date and then have the two merging parties "give up" and turn to other things.

Regardless, its almost pointless to speculate at this point since we will be in a drastically different situation by the time Monday rolls around, we might as well just wait and see what it is.

Simple CMA is going to pass them. The fact that MS isn't try to weaponize their fanbase right now proves it. It's best to just move on and focus on better matters.

 

[Zzero]

MS knew they lost, and would lose. They cancelled the appeal and said can we offer something else? I don't think it is even possible for the CMA to say "no" to this. Their job is to evaluate proppsals and say yes or no. Everyone thought they would fly through the first approval process too.

CMA has to consider their next proposal to act in good faith. And they could just as easily say no again. Nobody knows what is going on except for those directly involved.

I was under the impression that they didn't have to consider new proposals, they are already past that part of the process. MS made their proposal, CMA listed the potential remedies that could be taken (divest CoD, divest Activision minus King, divest Activision minus King and Blizzard or block the merger,) Microsoft offered, we assume, the same thing they gave the EU and so the CMA took the last option-blocking it. We had all been told that CMA decisions were both binding and final, with the only way out being if the CAT ruled that the CMA made errors in its decision. So why are they renegotiating on this ruling that was already made, they don't have to do it, they already went through the case and part of their ruling was that MS and Activision would be unable to propose a new merger for 10 years and would even need special approval to work together on stuff.

 

[Dr Bass]

I was under the impression that they didn't have to consider new proposals, they are already past that part of the process. MS made their proposal, CMA listed the potential remedies that could be taken (divest CoD, divest Activision minus King, divest Activision minus King and Blizzard or block the merger,) Microsoft offered, we assume, the same thing they gave the EU and so the CMA took the last option-blocking it. We had all been told that CMA decisions were both binding and final, with the only way out being if the CAT ruled that the CMA made errors in its decision. So why are they renegotiating on this ruling that was already made, they don't have to do it, they already went through the case and part of their ruling was that MS and Activision would be unable to propose a new merger for 10 years and would even need special approval to work together on stuff.

Good point about the 10 year block, not sure what the deal is with that but the CMA came out and said the deal is still blocked globally and their decision still stands. And they will see what MS proposes.

That's literally all the info we have. Anything else is pure speculation at this point.

 

[Swift_Star]

Simple CMA is going to pass them. The fact that MS isn't try to weaponize their fanbase right now proves it. It's best to just move on and focus on better matters.

How aren't they trying to weaponizing their fanbase when they've never stopped doing it?

 

[FatKaz]

@Zzero

CMA decision is final and they aren't accepting remedies for how the deal is currently structured. MS have chose to restructure the deal, hence why there is a 6 week investigation going on.

"Whilst merging parties don’t have the opportunity to put forward new remedies once a final report has been issued, they can choose to restructure a deal, which can lead to a new merger investigation. Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis. These discussions remain at an early stage and the nature and timing of next steps will be determined in due course. While both parties have requested a pause in Microsoft’s appeal to allow these discussions to take place, the CMA decision set out in its final report still stands."

 

[FatKaz]

How isn't they trying to weaponizing their fanbase when they've never stopped doing it?

Exactly they never stopped. They are as obnoxious and spreading FUD as strong as ever.

 

[Dr Bass]

CMA decision is final and they aren't accepting remedies for how the deal is currently structured. MS have chose to restructure the deal, hence why there is a 6 week investigation going on.

It doesn't get any more clear than this.