NPD December 2022 (PS5 #1 Revenue, Switch #1 Units, Xbox @ $200 Forever #3, Leaked LTD up to Nov 2022: 10.6m PS5 / 8.7m Xbox)

Bodycount611

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completely genuine here, it's been about 7 or 8 years since an xbox release has even made me take a second look. I think the last time xbox was relevant was maybe 2015 or 2016 with the 'greatest games lineup" or whatever, with Rise of the Tomb Raider and Halo 5.

since then, i've not noticed a single 'big' game that could catch someone's attention beyond the yearly forza games.

i'm completely serious here. They need a mega hit, and they need it bad like 5 or some odd years ago.

they offer nothing right now. 3 years on the market without a killer app is unacceptable for Series SX.

This is the single worst console/ launch window i've ever seen in my lifetime of gaming.
 

twinspectre

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I've been gaming since 1988 and I don't need anyone to tell me what dumbed down gameplay is.

There is nothing dumbed down about God of War Ragnarök. Having strong narration and AAA production doesn't make a game dumbed down. That's complete bullshit and it's an excuse that elitists come up with to make themselves feel like they are better gamers than others.

My favorite genre is flight sims. I come from an era where you basically needed a flight manual to learn how to play these games. Now they have in-game tutorials and easy modes that let you play them without having to be a pilot as your second job. Does that mean they are dumbed down? Fuck no, they are still as hardcore as ever and even more immersive than ever with VR modes and support for different types of complex rigs and flight controls that would make the 15 year old me playing Jane's F-15 blush.

Same shit can be applied to games like God of War. Difficulty for the God of War games can be super easy or super challenging on Give me God of War difficulty. There is no dumbed down gameplay in God of War. Obscure or low budget games aren't any more hardcore than a modern AAA blockbuster like God of War. You people need to stop this crappy mentality where you view any AAA game with cinematic elements as casual because it's bullshit.
What has hardware limitation to do with all of this?
See? there's devs that says "modern games are dumbed down" and you keep saying "they are not".
Did I said something about being "Elitist"? God of War, as shown in the video has slow motion, and these are used to make stuff simpler.
I never asked you to tell me your history, because I don't care.
I bet for you Last of Us listen mode is also hardcore and it isn't dumbed down.
 

twinspectre

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completely genuine here, it's been about 7 or 8 years since an xbox release has even made me take a second look. I think the last time xbox was relevant was maybe 2015 or 2016 with the 'greatest games lineup" or whatever, with Rise of the Tomb Raider and Halo 5.

since then, i've not noticed a single 'big' game that could catch someone's attention beyond the yearly forza games.

i'm completely serious here. They need a mega hit, and they need it bad like 5 or some odd years ago.

they offer nothing right now. 3 years on the market without a killer app is unacceptable for Series SX.

This is the single worst console/ launch window i've ever seen in my lifetime of gaming.
I don't think they are capable anymore, maybe Elder Scrolls can be that hit, but I doubt it.
 

twinspectre

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Exactly.

Even if someone doesn't like GOW which is a completely reasonable opinion to have I still don't see how they can call it causal. To even suggest it's casual is straight up buffoonery in my book.
I don't know how to explain it, but yeah, GOD of WAR is casual.
 

Bodycount611

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I don't think they are capable anymore, maybe Elder Scrolls can be that hit, but I doubt it.
i don't even know about TES6 at this point. Skyrim was a cultural phenomenon...in 2011. But it came hot off a great game in TES IV in 2006, and fallout 3 in 2008. You can't expect the same result for an IP that's been dormant for what, 15 plus years at the point of TES6's arrival, if it ever comes out at all, and a fallout franchise that quite frankly dropped off after FO4, and hit the gutter with FO76.

That's literally a lifetime for some gamers. What ~20 year old gamer would care? They'd have lived their entire lives without interacting with TES at all pretty much.

and of course, if its withheld from PS5, then that means 50% of the potential userbase is already cut off from the get go. No way in heck it could match Skyrim's impact.

MS is in pretty big trouble. With Halo not being culturally relevant after 343's decade+ of mismanagement, they're basically back to starting from scratch for gamer's attention now. We'll see what happens, but if it were me, I'd hold off on purchasing a series console right now. No telling when 3rd parties start to pull out, and you're left with a lemon, like what happened with Xbox One.
 
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FIREK2029

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What has hardware limitation to do with all of this?
See? there's devs that says "modern games are dumbed down" and you keep saying "they are not".
Did I said something about being "Elitist"? God of War, as shown in the video has slow motion, and these are used to make stuff simpler.
I never asked you to tell me your history, because I don't care.
I bet for you Last of Us listen mode is also hardcore and it isn't dumbed down.
I'm not wasting my time arguing with you any more. It's clear to me that you are set in your ways and no amount of reasoning will change your mind.

Keep believing whatever helps you sleep better at night, I'll keep living in reality where GOW isn't a casual game.

PS: In-game tutorials and easy modes to make flying easier have nothing to do with hardware limitations and more to do with gameplay design. I like how you completely ignored where I talked about needing flight manuals to play older flight sims and how you don't need them now. You're being intentionally obtuse so I'm not gonna waste my time with you anymore.
 
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Bodycount611

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one's things for sure though, no matter how much money they have, MS won't keep this up out of charity. The Xbox division is all out of lemon passes after the Xbox One generation. If Series keeps trending lower than that (which I hate to say it, but these numbers prove it is) then I don't see a future where the Xbox brand is viable moving forward.

This is truly their last chance.
 

Swift_Star

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Aquamarine leaked some NPD data in InstallBase.

PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K

XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K

And how Welfare overtimater Xbox in more than 300k and underestimate PS5 in more than 200k in these months 😂😂😂


Welfare’s guesstimates lol
XboxPS5
260,000 (=)270,000 (-7K)
260,000 (+13K)280,000 (-21K)
240,000 (-10K)330,000 (-11K)
320,000 (+32K)460,000 (-34K)
310,000 (+51K)400,000 (-56K)
950,000 (+220K)1,200,000 (-138K)
That’s only in the US… I’d assume the rest of the world is really bad for Xbox
 

FIREK2029

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24 Jun 2022
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That’s only in the US… I’d assume the rest of the world is really bad for Xbox
Yea, it's a complete bloodbath.

US is their strongest market and the only one where they are competitive and they are getting outsold almost 2 to 1 here. Rest of the world is beyond abysmal if things are this bad in the US for them.
 

Gediminas

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In Ireland you don't see many PS5s but loads of Series X/S in stock. I guess that means the PS5 doesn't sell and retailers won't bring them in but the Series X/S is extremely popular. 😉
in norway, the same. they even sold more xbox last year, because we got no stock of PS5. i can go to shop and buy SS and SX, no problem.
 
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voke

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Damn so MS is losing worse this gen? They should just quit the hardware race. They don't have any space there, nothing special about Xbox other than their ability to lie to their consumers every year.
 
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They're gaining over them now because Microsoft's output has been non-existent for the most part. Also, the hardcore fans already own their console of choice where as the later years is usually casual that jump in and if Microsoft has a $200 Series S and Game Pass, that's simply a lot to overcome. A lot of games will give Game Pass a boost. What will do it most is just Microsoft being consistent with releases.

I still don't see how that closes the gap for MS in a way you feel it will, assuming Sony continues to make more moves themselves. For them to close the gap as you say, at least in console sales, MS have to reach beyond Xbox hardcore and it's going to look less and less likely the Series S, even with Game Pass, manages to accomplish that when we're likely going to see a cheaper PS5 model in the future or Nintendo with their Switch systems, both options attracting would-be casuals & mainstream away from Series S as an enticing offering.

And that's just in the US; imagine how that plays out globally in markets where Xbox is already weaker in and where the Series S & Game Pass combination hasn't done much to move the needle. I agree with you, MS need the big attention-grabbing mainstream hits. But what among the games of theirs we already know about fit that criteria or would fit that criteria?

As for COD, it will be day one in Game Pass as will every Microsoft first party game. They're not going to change that or make any exceptions regardless of the game. Doing that would harm their platform, eco-system and messaging more than not having as many sales on Xbox. For Microsoft and Xbox, they'll never reach the sales numbers of Sony and no one is reaching is Nintendo so for them, it's all about Game Pass and the best way to build it is by having massive games in the service.

We already have statements from Microsoft themselves in the court cases that taking COD off other gaming platforms would be counter-productive to the revenue potential of the IP. It doesn't take a lot to guess that putting it Day 1 in Game Pass would also be counter-productive to that same same revenue-generating ability for the games.

There are already rumors that a new Game Pass tier is coming which would, among other things, delay out Xbox 1P games being in that tier by six months. So it's always about the economics, basically. COD in Game Pass Day 1 will mean less revenue versus continuing the model they currently have. While I can see MS throwing in some exclusive perks like bonus DLC and EXP for those with Game Pass subs, and discounts on Battle Passes or new maps if you have a Game Pass subscription, that's probably as far as it will go.

I mean look at how well MW2 is still selling on the charts. Why cut off that revenue to subsidize (i.e incur losses) through Game Pass Day 1 for a game that can clearly sell on its own, considering MS want ABK in big part because of the revenue IP like COD generate? It just doesn't make any business sense.

You're looking way too into the money aspect but not taking into account the sales COD would still get on Battle.net, Steam, PlayStation (if available) and Nintendo. Losing sales on Xbox but gaining subscribers will be far more valuable plus don't forget, they will gain a shit ton of revenue from micro-transactions across all platforms.

Except if COD on Game Pass Day 1 is enough of a big deal, MS actually LOSES sales on Battle.net, Steam, PlayStation (why would it not be available here if it's available on Switch?) and Nintendo!

And again, back to the subscribers thing, them gaining subs only works out if the ARPU is good. Currently it's way below what it should be for the service; MS would have to adjust pricing, cut out or limit loopholes & deals, and maybe introduce additional tiers or change the 1P release cadence into certain tiers, to have the sub growth work out to their favor.

Because ultimately even with pursuing subs, what MS REALLY wants is more revenue.

I agree with this for the most part but again, as I have said, Microsoft just needs to be consistent with their first party releases. The quality is there regardless of what anyone wants to think or believe but the quantity and most importantly, the consistency isn't. Microsoft was thrashed in Europe last generation. It won't be the same this generation. It's all about Game Pass. This is their answer. It's not going to happen overnight but we saw a huge increase in subscriptions because of their 2021 second half lineup. They stay consistent, they will gain market share because people will want to play the games and with a lot of regions where games are $100+ for a single release, Game Pass is going to look like a Godsend. They don't need to do anything else. Game Pass IS their answer.

I think you meant the UK: they're usually pretty close with Sony in the UK but less so in the rest of Europe. Truth is, no sales trends have indicated that changing, like at all. Xbox is still a weak brand in Europe outside of the UK, and even there I think they may have slipped a tad.

Again I think you are grossly overstating the importance of Game Pass's value on price being a selling point. The vast majority just don't see that as valuable, if they did we'd of seen better sales for Xbox in its strongest market last year but we didn't. It's really about those mass-market, mainstream heavy-hitting exclusives and incidentally, Game Pass benefits from having them if they're MS 1P, but Game Pass in and of itself is not a factor in helping sway the market. We have too much data now proving it isn't...at least not without the right software.

So I think we can both agree that MS need those types of games and releasing them consistently, in order to start building up better mindshare and gaining market share, if that's their goal. But just coasting off the price argument isn't working, it didn't work in 2022, it won't work this year and it won't work in the future. People WILL pay for a premium if they think the quality is there. We see that with PS5, we see that with Switch, we see it with GOW Ragnarok, HFW, GT7, Pokemon, COD, Elden Ring etc.

Series S only didn't do as well last year because well, there's no first party output. Do you really believe that 2023 will be a repeat if they release 5 or so first party games? Microsoft knew that once they delayed Starfield, Redfall and Forza Motorsport that they were going to take a hit overall and that's fine because they have a long way to go with this generation.

It could, depending on how those games hit relative to other big games and multiplats, and whether those games are appealing enough to mainstream audiences (which includes if they're advertised well). Quantity and even quality alone don't do enough to have a mass-market success that then ends up boosting a console's profile. You need excellent marketing and general mass-market appeal as well.

From what MS have confirmed coming, Forza Motorspot is not one of those games. RedFall is potentially not one of those games. That Ara RTS game is not one of those games. Minecraft is, but it's multiplat and most of its audience are on Nintendo, PS & mobile. The ESO expansion kind of is but, again, multiplat and not strongly associated with Xbox brand-wise even after the acquisition.

Starfield is the only game that has a more sure chance of meeting that appeal for the mass market as well as being a big and high-quality game but that depends on how it crosses the finish line. If it's buggy AF, it won't have that effect. If the story is lackluster (in terms of the main quest), it won't have that effect. The game already has some things working against it ATM like the lack of planetary entry and only a few planets with anything noteworthy to do on them, or where it seems like the team's pushing quantity over quality, but we'll see how things are when they show it off again in the future.

If I were Bethesda/MS I'd get some big marketing campaign going playing up on films like A Space Odyssey, Interstellar etc. maybe even get some directors from those films to do commercial spots with George Clooney or other people from well-known hard sci-fi space films. I'm not counting on them to have a vision of that scale though, so it could be a missed opportunity, but I'd like to be surprised.

Hellblade 2, Fable, Indiana Jones, The Elder Scrolls VI, next Coalition, Id Software, etc. games. Plus Avowed, The Outer Worlds 2, etc. They have plenty of games and the reason they'll increase their console market share is because many people will want to play these games and when they know they can get it on Game Pass day one, why wouldn't they jump in?

Because PS aren't going to just sit idle and provide nothing of their own to counter a lot of that, either from 1P teams or with 3P exclusives. KOTOR Remake ran into some rough times but if that turns out really strong and comes out around the time of TES VI, it could cause some stiff competition for Elder Scrolls, for sure. There's no telling if Gears 6 will innovate enough with the IP or just be more of the same, but it really needs the former to attract any more than just Gears faithful. The next DOOM either needs really good timing or some strong hook to ensure it hits better with the market than Eternal did, at least commercially.

Outer Worlds 2 is probably several years away, and needs to do a lot of things to keep interest better than the first game did. No idea if the Indiana Jones game is exclusive or multiplat, but historically Indiana Jones wasn't a big system mover even with the one that was exclusive for OG Xbox. Fable was a good series but some would say the quality dropped off past the second game, and the market for WRPGs is way more competitive now than it was when the original games came out for Xbox & 360. Hellblade 2 is probably going to be a great game, but what does it have that we KNOW of that's going to make it a bigger draw than the original?

Even if MS have these games and they're all successful, none of that guarantees they increase market share in a way relative to PlayStation losing any (which is what I assume you mean by MS increasing market share, otherwise I agree they CAN increase market share but realistically only in a manner where Sony & Nintendo are also increasing market share meaning the market percentages stay roughly the same between the three). These games being in Game Pass Day 1 (and again, if those rumors are true, it'll come down to what tier of Game Pass you have to maybe get these Day 1) doesn't mean much if a person isn't necessarily interested enough in playing those games over offerings on competitor platforms or even competitive software offerings that could be on Xbox.

After all, a person's time is even more valuable than their money.
Microsoft doesn't need the big blockbuster game because they're not reliant on console sales and whatnot. They just want you in the eco-system which for this generation will mainly be console but there will still be those who play on PC and possibly streaming later on in the generation. It's more of a collection of various options as opposed to just one singular one.

The problem with this is that MS actually are still reliant on console sales to some big degree, they just don't like talking sales numbers. And it's not like they're even the only ones branching out beyond console: Sony have been bringing more of their games to PC and had PS game streaming to PC and mobile before Microsoft did, same with PS streaming to TV, they did that well before MS. They also had Remote Play as another option. Both Sony & Nintendo are in the mobile space right now with multiple games, some of which are very successful like Fate: Grand Order and Pokemon Go!

The difference though is that the development will still be the same like Switch is for Nintendo. Instead of dividing studios to develop games for a console, a handheld, etc., Microsoft does one version of the game and it simply gets optimized for how you want to play it. I don't think that they will have a Streaming stick or anything like that. I believe that they will Game Pass included in 4KTV's later this generation like Netflix and whatnot to where you just access it. They have that adapter for the controller that you connect into the USB port and that's it. You're good to go.

The approach of making a game that's just one version and optimized for other devices of varying compute ability has its drawbacks though, especially if those other devices require native versions of the game to run on them. It's a reason I'm still concerned about Series S's existence and it potentially holding back game scope of more ambitious 1P Xbox titles down the line.

Relying on a streaming app in smart TVs would only be a partial solution. For one, there are going to be lots of people with older smart TVs that won't be able to use the app due to outdated firmware and the lack of that TV's manufacturer providing updates, so those people are going to now be forced to pay several hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a new TV to access Game Pass via xCloud, instead of paying maybe $150 tops to do the same with a box they can use on ANY TV they have or ever decided to buy in the future?

Yeah, sure, make the app a thing for those who want the option, but I don't think that makes up for lack of a streaming box. A streaming box that, IMO, should have probably taken Series S's place altogether but, I'm not running the Xbox division. Phil Spencer is.

Two consoles like it is now. PC for those who want the best superior experience and TV apps/cloud for those who just want access to the subscription service and games. And of course, cloud will be there for those who play on the go or are on business trips/vacations.

The thing is how practical are these solutions going to be for people in their everyday gaming habits, and what's the real market potential for any of them individually? We know what that is for consoles, and a good gauge of what it is for PC.

But when I talk about MS having too much product in-fighting, I mean from a business & messaging standpoint towards gaming customers. These different products don't quite create the technical issues Sega's approach with multiple consoles and add-ons back in the day did, but it can create comparable logistical issues with messaging & marketing, in fact we're already seeing them.

Go to Xbox's Twitter or Youtube and you'll regularly see Series S being promoted all the time, but nary any promotion for Series X. When up to June 2020, MS led with Series X exclusively in their marketing & messaging. But if you have the "most powerful" console and the "cheapest" console and they're two completely different devices, and both have games running natively on them, and you're selling them simultaneously, how do you think that impacts design scope for more ambitious 1P AAA games down the line with anything aside from graphics/resolution and framerate?

That's where these logistical problems may start to manifest as the generation goes on, but we'll see.

Sega oversaturated their own market with Genesis, 32X and Sega CD. All three were different, required different games and whatnot. This is not Microsoft is doing. For them, it's all going to be seamless and integrated. This is why I believe they eliminated Keystone. Why having a streaming stick when you can just make deals with TV manufacturers to include a Game Pass app pre-loaded right out of the box? That's how I see it anyway.

Well I just touched on why Project Keystone makes sense even if you have an app with TV manufacturers, and why (IMO) it makes more sense than a Series S in the product line. For the former, it lets people use xCloud without it being specifically tied to a TV they could end up breaking & needing to replace, or replacing because it's outdated (lack of firmware updates, etc.).

For the latter, it would've enabled even cheaper production costs on hardware, and freed devs from needing to bother building a native version for a sub-Series X hardware spec, freeing up their dev time to focus on polish and even further optimization.

Have to wait and see how the generation plays out. I simply believe that it won't play out like majority believe it will. Again, we'll see.

It's nice to be hopeful, and I wish I could share your optimism, but until Microsoft make some substantive changes to their business strategy in multiple areas, I don't see things shaking out the way you do.

But as always, time will tell.
 
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twinspectre

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I'm not wasting my time arguing with you any more. It's clear to me that you are set in your ways and no amount of reasoning will change your mind.

Keep believing whatever helps you sleep better at night, I'll keep living in reality where GOW isn't a casual game.

PS: In-game tutorials and easy modes to make flying easier have nothing to do with hardware limitations and more to do with gameplay design. I like how you completely ignored where I talked about needing flight manuals to play older flight sims and how you don't need them now. You're being intentionally obtuse so I'm not gonna waste my time with you anymore.
"Reality" keep being delusional.
 
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peter42O

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I still don't see how that closes the gap for MS in a way you feel it will, assuming Sony continues to make more moves themselves. For them to close the gap as you say, at least in console sales, MS have to reach beyond Xbox hardcore and it's going to look less and less likely the Series S, even with Game Pass, manages to accomplish that when we're likely going to see a cheaper PS5 model in the future or Nintendo with their Switch systems, both options attracting would-be casuals & mainstream away from Series S as an enticing offering.

And that's just in the US; imagine how that plays out globally in markets where Xbox is already weaker in and where the Series S & Game Pass combination hasn't done much to move the needle. I agree with you, MS need the big attention-grabbing mainstream hits. But what among the games of theirs we already know about fit that criteria or would fit that criteria?

Sony is going to have a PS5 revision that should be $400 but I wouldn't be shocked if it's $500 or includes a game in order to inflate the price to $500. Nintendo is going to dominate regardless of what they or anyone else does. Only way this changes is if they completely screw up the Switch successor. I believe that they won't but will be $400.

My entire thinking is simple - it's based on Microsoft finally being consistent with their first party releases. This is what I believe will drive Xbox Series S and to a lesser extent, Series X console sales because a lot of people will be enticed by Game Pass. 2021 saw them grow Game Pass and console sales because the second half was stacked. 2022 was barren so any minimal gain or just being close is huge considering their output was nearly non-existent.

We already have statements from Microsoft themselves in the court cases that taking COD off other gaming platforms would be counter-productive to the revenue potential of the IP. It doesn't take a lot to guess that putting it Day 1 in Game Pass would also be counter-productive to that same same revenue-generating ability for the games.

There are already rumors that a new Game Pass tier is coming which would, among other things, delay out Xbox 1P games being in that tier by six months. So it's always about the economics, basically. COD in Game Pass Day 1 will mean less revenue versus continuing the model they currently have. While I can see MS throwing in some exclusive perks like bonus DLC and EXP for those with Game Pass subs, and discounts on Battle Passes or new maps if you have a Game Pass subscription, that's probably as far as it will go.

I mean look at how well MW2 is still selling on the charts. Why cut off that revenue to subsidize (i.e incur losses) through Game Pass Day 1 for a game that can clearly sell on its own, considering MS want ABK in big part because of the revenue IP like COD generate? It just doesn't make any business sense.

I simply don't see any tier of Game Pass where you don't get the games day one as that would entirely kill off the entire benefit of it all and for those like me who went with Series X as their primary console for Game Pass then this would have a negative affect to where many people who jumped in for this very reason can just as easily jump out. Barring any concessions, I believe COD will not be on PlayStation if Sony doesn't sign the 10 year contract they've been offered. If Sony rejects the offer and all of a sudden, the acquisition closes with no restrictions, I believe 100% that Microsoft will not give Sony COD because why would they? They'll make just as much if not more money by it being exclusive to Xbox if we're only counting Xbox/PlayStation. COD will be on Switch and PC as Nintendo has already signed the contract and Valve didn't sign but don't need to. If it plays out that way, it's 100% on Sony for letting down their player base. Not Microsoft or anyone else because after all, they were offered a more than fair deal and rejected it.

Personally, I believe that COD multi-player would be like Halo Infinite - free to play. With the campaign being in Game Pass or purchasable. They'll make the money up on micro-transactions, battle pases, etc. because whales and others love all that shit and will spend a fortune on it all. This will completely offset any losses. Also, if you're getting all these new players/console owners into Xbox and Game Pass, that will lead to even more money because while not all of them, a good amount will buy a lot of other stuff on the platform.

And of course, they'll still be selling the game and a lot of people will simply still buy it. PC will be huge because majority avoid the Windows Store and prefer Steam or Battle.net. That's more sales. Plus, you also have to realize that Microsoft will be making a shit ton of money from Diablo, Overwatch, King mobile games, etc. They don't need to get all 100% of the revenue from COD. The other aspects will easily offset it all and growing the Xbox platform, eco-system and Game Pass is far more important than the COD revenue.

And of course, if it is still on PlayStation, those there aren't spending hundreds to play COD in Game Pass. They will simply continue to buy the game for $70 on PlayStation and in this scenario, it's no longer free to play or anything. It's just a straight forward $70 game.

Back to Game Pass, not having it there day one goes against what they've building since March 2018 with Sea of Thieves and would also create unnecessary concerns and worries within the Xbox fan base because they would always then think, "is this game coming to Game Pass day one?" especially if they have another big acquisition down the line. Not having COD in Game Pass day one would simply create more problems than it's worth.

Except if COD on Game Pass Day 1 is enough of a big deal, MS actually LOSES sales on Battle.net, Steam, PlayStation (why would it not be available here if it's available on Switch?) and Nintendo!

And again, back to the subscribers thing, them gaining subs only works out if the ARPU is good. Currently it's way below what it should be for the service; MS would have to adjust pricing, cut out or limit loopholes & deals, and maybe introduce additional tiers or change the 1P release cadence into certain tiers, to have the sub growth work out to their favor.

Because ultimately even with pursuing subs, what MS REALLY wants is more revenue.

Microsoft wouldn't lose sales on Steam, Battle.net, etc. because those who play on PC prefer those storefronts at $70 over the Windows Store and Game Pass PC. Those who have been there for years aren't going anywhere.

I believe that if regulators approve the ABK deal with no restrictions, Sony will be left out in the cold because I don't see them accepting the 10 year legally binding contract. I believe that due to them simply going all out for the deal to be blocked that they're going to end up overplaying their hand and it will cost them COD. If you're Microsoft and get ABK with no restrictions and Sony passes on the 10 year contract repeatedly, why would Microsoft give it to them? No reason to do so plus all the backlash and negativity would be on Sony for not accepting the deal. After all, Microsoft can't force them to sign the deal.

You have to realize that it's not just the cost that subscribers are paying in Game Pass, it's how much more money are these subscribers paying because of it? Are they buying more games (which apparently they do and I did this with two games) or spending more money on season passes or micro-transactions, etc. Everyone wants to believe that they're not making any profit off of Game Pass when they are and probably more than what we would guess they are. After all, they've worked out the "math" and know it all far better than all of us do.

This generation is all about rebuilding the Xbox brand, platform, eco-system as well as growing Game Pass. Microsoft as a company makes so much revenue and profit that it doesn't matter if Xbox loses money or not because they make up for it elsewhere and if they can just get everything going heading into next generation, they'll easily make it all back and then some.

I think you meant the UK: they're usually pretty close with Sony in the UK but less so in the rest of Europe. Truth is, no sales trends have indicated that changing, like at all. Xbox is still a weak brand in Europe outside of the UK, and even there I think they may have slipped a tad.

Again I think you are grossly overstating the importance of Game Pass's value on price being a selling point. The vast majority just don't see that as valuable, if they did we'd of seen better sales for Xbox in its strongest market last year but we didn't. It's really about those mass-market, mainstream heavy-hitting exclusives and incidentally, Game Pass benefits from having them if they're MS 1P, but Game Pass in and of itself is not a factor in helping sway the market. We have too much data now proving it isn't...at least not without the right software.

So I think we can both agree that MS need those types of games and releasing them consistently, in order to start building up better mindshare and gaining market share, if that's their goal. But just coasting off the price argument isn't working, it didn't work in 2022, it won't work this year and it won't work in the future. People WILL pay for a premium if they think the quality is there. We see that with PS5, we see that with Switch, we see it with GOW Ragnarok, HFW, GT7, Pokemon, COD, Elden Ring etc.

I meant Europe as a whole. Xbox even in the region(s) they may be strong in, the rest is abysmal. I believe that the people who don't see it as value or must have is due to the fact that Microsoft hasn't been consistent whatsoever in regards to their first party content. When was the last time they had two great consistent years back to back? Even I don't know when that was. Microsoft has to build up the trust first and they will do that by being consistent year in and year out. This is why I say this generation is a reset. It's all about getting back to where they were during the Xbox 360 generation and building momentum going into next generation.

People pay for quality games but let's be honest, it's not many. You have Nintendo, some Sony games, COD, sports games which always sell, Rockstar, CDPR and maybe a few others. The vast majority don't sell anywhere near any of the games/companies that I just mentioned.

I do agree with you in regards to Microsoft needing quality exclusives but even more so, they need to be consistent with having quality exclusives. Have an excellent second half of 2021 means little to nothing if you're 2022 is for the most part empty which it was. Excluding the sports games for the most part, the rest that I mentioned are usually quality but they're always consistent. Microsoft needs to nail both at the same time in regards to their first party releases.

It could, depending on how those games hit relative to other big games and multiplats, and whether those games are appealing enough to mainstream audiences (which includes if they're advertised well). Quantity and even quality alone don't do enough to have a mass-market success that then ends up boosting a console's profile. You need excellent marketing and general mass-market appeal as well.

From what MS have confirmed coming, Forza Motorspot is not one of those games. RedFall is potentially not one of those games. That Ara RTS game is not one of those games. Minecraft is, but it's multiplat and most of its audience are on Nintendo, PS & mobile. The ESO expansion kind of is but, again, multiplat and not strongly associated with Xbox brand-wise even after the acquisition.

Starfield is the only game that has a more sure chance of meeting that appeal for the mass market as well as being a big and high-quality game but that depends on how it crosses the finish line. If it's buggy AF, it won't have that effect. If the story is lackluster (in terms of the main quest), it won't have that effect. The game already has some things working against it ATM like the lack of planetary entry and only a few planets with anything noteworthy to do on them, or where it seems like the team's pushing quantity over quality, but we'll see how things are when they show it off again in the future.

If I were Bethesda/MS I'd get some big marketing campaign going playing up on films like A Space Odyssey, Interstellar etc. maybe even get some directors from those films to do commercial spots with George Clooney or other people from well-known hard sci-fi space films. I'm not counting on them to have a vision of that scale though, so it could be a missed opportunity, but I'd like to be surprised.

I agree with you in regards to those games on an individual basis but I believe that when you add them all together and they're actually great, then it goes the other way. I agree in regards to Starfield.
 
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peter42O

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Because PS aren't going to just sit idle and provide nothing of their own to counter a lot of that, either from 1P teams or with 3P exclusives. KOTOR Remake ran into some rough times but if that turns out really strong and comes out around the time of TES VI, it could cause some stiff competition for Elder Scrolls, for sure. There's no telling if Gears 6 will innovate enough with the IP or just be more of the same, but it really needs the former to attract any more than just Gears faithful. The next DOOM either needs really good timing or some strong hook to ensure it hits better with the market than Eternal did, at least commercially.

Outer Worlds 2 is probably several years away, and needs to do a lot of things to keep interest better than the first game did. No idea if the Indiana Jones game is exclusive or multiplat, but historically Indiana Jones wasn't a big system mover even with the one that was exclusive for OG Xbox. Fable was a good series but some would say the quality dropped off past the second game, and the market for WRPGs is way more competitive now than it was when the original games came out for Xbox & 360. Hellblade 2 is probably going to be a great game, but what does it have that we KNOW of that's going to make it a bigger draw than the original?

Even if MS have these games and they're all successful, none of that guarantees they increase market share in a way relative to PlayStation losing any (which is what I assume you mean by MS increasing market share, otherwise I agree they CAN increase market share but realistically only in a manner where Sony & Nintendo are also increasing market share meaning the market percentages stay roughly the same between the three). These games being in Game Pass Day 1 (and again, if those rumors are true, it'll come down to what tier of Game Pass you have to maybe get these Day 1) doesn't mean much if a person isn't necessarily interested enough in playing those games over offerings on competitor platforms or even competitive software offerings that could be on Xbox.

After all, a person's time is even more valuable than their money.

I don't see Sony really losing any market share. I see Microsoft gaining market share but not by Sony losing it. I see it by Microsoft having more ways to get into their eco-system but console wise, I see it more as getting back players lost or those who own a PlayStation 5 but will then also decide to own an Xbox Series X or S.

Game wise, KOTOR I see being 2025. TES VI is probably 2028 at the earliest so I don't see these games running into each other. As for Indiana Jones, I believe it's exclusive because if it was multi-platform, the official Sony twitter and YouTube accounts would have shown that announcement teaser trailer. Multi-platform games always get shown on the other channel within a few days. This didn't happen at all. The other games I agree with but like I stated above, I think it becomes more of instead of each individual game, it's a collection of games that pulls people in.

For example, I own a PS5 for the exclusives but it wasn't just for a few games. It's for 10-15 games throughout the generation excluding the timed console exclusives. This is what I believe will happen with Xbox in the second half of the generation. A collection of exclusives that people will want to play and decide to jump in.

The problem with this is that MS actually are still reliant on console sales to some big degree, they just don't like talking sales numbers. And it's not like they're even the only ones branching out beyond console: Sony have been bringing more of their games to PC and had PS game streaming to PC and mobile before Microsoft did, same with PS streaming to TV, they did that well before MS. They also had Remote Play as another option. Both Sony & Nintendo are in the mobile space right now with multiple games, some of which are very successful like Fate: Grand Order and Pokemon Go!

I never said Microsoft was first. I know they weren't but it's not about who's first, it's about who does it better and who is more successful. Mobile wise, when you have King, Diablo Immortal, eventually COD mobile, etc., they'll be far more successful than probably Sony and Nintendo combined.

PC wise, Nintendo is non-existent and until Sony puts all their first party games day one, they'll be lagging behind for a while allowing Microsoft to capitalize. Microsoft still cares about console sales but they're trying to get to where they don't need to be 100% reliant and dependent on it which is what Sony and Nintendo are as of now.

The approach of making a game that's just one version and optimized for other devices of varying compute ability has its drawbacks though, especially if those other devices require native versions of the game to run on them. It's a reason I'm still concerned about Series S's existence and it potentially holding back game scope of more ambitious 1P Xbox titles down the line.

Relying on a streaming app in smart TVs would only be a partial solution. For one, there are going to be lots of people with older smart TVs that won't be able to use the app due to outdated firmware and the lack of that TV's manufacturer providing updates, so those people are going to now be forced to pay several hundreds or even thousands of dollars for a new TV to access Game Pass via xCloud, instead of paying maybe $150 tops to do the same with a box they can use on ANY TV they have or ever decided to buy in the future?

Yeah, sure, make the app a thing for those who want the option, but I don't think that makes up for lack of a streaming box. A streaming box that, IMO, should have probably taken Series S's place altogether but, I'm not running the Xbox division. Phil Spencer is.

I don't see any issues with Series S. Look at Forspoken on PlayStation 5. Correct me if im wrong but in performance mode, it appears that the resolution is 720p. Are you telling me that you're concerned about PlayStation 5? I mean come on. All three consoles are more than capable of holding their own including the Series S. It's simply up to the publishers to give their development studios the time needed to fully optimize their games to get the most out of the consoles.

Streaming wise, those who perhaps have an old TV that can't download the Game Pass app can either buy a Series S (which is one of the many reasons why it exists and is important) or even potentially an Xbox One that allows you to stream the games through the console to the TV. Even though im not 100% sure if Xbox One is an option right now or ever will be. Since im not into streaming, I haven't followed much of it. Point being is that there will be a far cheaper option than buying a new TV.

I disagree with a streaming box replacing Series S because Series S allows you to also download the games and you can always stream them if you wanted to. Eventually Series S will be $200, if not Holiday 2023, definitely Holiday 2024 and for that cheap of a price, selling a streaming box for $150 or $100 without a controller wouldn't make much sense. I think they realized this and decided to cancel/hold off on Keystone because realistically, it's not worth it.

The thing is how practical are these solutions going to be for people in their everyday gaming habits, and what's the real market potential for any of them individually? We know what that is for consoles, and a good gauge of what it is for PC.

But when I talk about MS having too much product in-fighting, I mean from a business & messaging standpoint towards gaming customers. These different products don't quite create the technical issues Sega's approach with multiple consoles and add-ons back in the day did, but it can create comparable logistical issues with messaging & marketing, in fact we're already seeing them.

Go to Xbox's Twitter or Youtube and you'll regularly see Series S being promoted all the time, but nary any promotion for Series X. When up to June 2020, MS led with Series X exclusively in their marketing & messaging. But if you have the "most powerful" console and the "cheapest" console and they're two completely different devices, and both have games running natively on them, and you're selling them simultaneously, how do you think that impacts design scope for more ambitious 1P AAA games down the line with anything aside from graphics/resolution and framerate?

That's where these logistical problems may start to manifest as the generation goes on, but we'll see.

I think Microsoft has marketed Series S more for two reasons - first being it being far easier and cheaper to manufacture and get on store shelves and second, when you don't have much like in 2022, you're better off advertising the cheaper option. Besides, people aren't that dumb. If they're a gamer or just getting into gaming, they're going to do enough research to realize that there's two Xbox Series consoles and what each offers.

Game design wise, I don't see Series S having much issue if any at all. The RAM would be the biggest concern but even then, once they start using the resolution techniques and whatnot, they'll then be able to offset the lesser RAM with the CPU and GPU which are virtually identical to Series X. Basically, I don't really see game design truly being affected at all by any of the consoles especially when nearly every game will still have to run on PC which includes low to mid end CPU/GPU/RAM specifications.

There may be a game here and there that requires a lot of overhead for RAM/CPU/GPU but at the same time, I believe that this will be few and far between because every publisher and developer are going to cater to the mass market audience and these people are not rocking 32GB RAM and 4090 GPU cards. By the time this even remotely becomes an issue, we'll probably be 12-18 months out from next generation and in that scenario, most publishers will either just wait for those new consoles or they'll just scale back in order to just get the game out and move on.

Well I just touched on why Project Keystone makes sense even if you have an app with TV manufacturers, and why (IMO) it makes more sense than a Series S in the product line. For the former, it lets people use xCloud without it being specifically tied to a TV they could end up breaking & needing to replace, or replacing because it's outdated (lack of firmware updates, etc.).

For the latter, it would've enabled even cheaper production costs on hardware, and freed devs from needing to bother building a native version for a sub-Series X hardware spec, freeing up their dev time to focus on polish and even further optimization.

I can see the argument going either way. I just don't see the streaming stick or whatever happening because instead, they could just lower the price of Series S which would be the better option anyway because you're not reliant on streaming only capabilities. You can then just download the games to the console but still have the option for streaming games in which you don't need to worry about latency or input lag and/or are shorter not action heavy games and/or don't have the storage space needed to install the game but still want to play it without deleting/uninstalling anything you already have on the SSD.

It's nice to be hopeful, and I wish I could share your optimism, but until Microsoft make some substantive changes to their business strategy in multiple areas, I don't see things shaking out the way you do.

But as always, time will tell.

I believe that their business strategy is excellent. It's the execution that's lacking due to the issues with releasing first party games and content. If they can just become a lot more fucking consistent in releasing great games, the negatives slowly turn into positives. They're also #4 including PC so it's not like jacking up prices or doing this or that is going to help. It won't. It will hurt. Basically, Microsoft simply needs to take their lumps like Sony did for the majority of the PlayStation 3 generation and Nintendo did for the entirety of the Wii U generation and just see it all through.
 
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arvfab

Slayer of Colossi
23 Jun 2022
3,298
4,550
What's that slow motion stuff?

There you can see, you haven't played the game. The slow-mo is an effect of some armors or ability, only triggered by specific actions (e.g. perfect parry). There are builds around this ability, one of many different ways to customize your play style.

Nothing dumbed down.

And on Give Me The God of War difficulty, GOW is a lot harder than Elden Ring (which DID go the casual way in respect to its prequels).
 

Welfare

Forum Veteran
23 Jan 2023
219
364
I'd love to see any of you guys attempt to work out NPD results with the little we get every month and actually be close
And how Welfare overtimater Xbox in more than 300k and underestimate PS5 in more than 200k in these months 😂😂😂


Welfare’s guesstimates lol
XboxPS5
260,000 (=)270,000 (-7K)
260,000 (+13K)280,000 (-21K)
240,000 (-10K)330,000 (-11K)
320,000 (+32K)460,000 (-34K)
310,000 (+51K)400,000 (-56K)
950,000 (+220K)1,200,000 (-138K)
My estimates were perfectly fine up until September where PS5 started improving better than I thought, and November was a literal shot in the dark as there was nothing to work with. I've never been confident on those November estimates but they were what I thought to be the most probable. No one expected Xbox to be that low and even then, all of my other PS5 estimates were within 10% (June and August 3%, July and September 7%, 10% November) except October at 12%.

Similarly my Xbox estimates were super close up to September, having it exactly correct in June, 5% and 4% off in July and August, 10% in September, and 16% in October. Clearly September was a shift in PS5's direction greater than what I expected. My estimates had PS5 continually gaining share up to a peak of 59% in September, but a fall towards 56% in October in November. How am I supposed to know that Xbox just flopped in the holidays when that was never the trend at any point ever?

When Aqua last shared numbers in May, this is what I had worked out each month prior to her leak, compared to what the real results were

Xbox
Jan: 320,000 (Off 13K)
Feb: 300,000 (Off 39K)
Mar: 500,000 (Off 11K)
Apr: 280,000 (Off 13K)
May: 210,000 (Off 33K)

PS5
Jan: 370,000 (Off 1K)
Feb: 150,000 (Off 22K)
Mar: 260,000 (Off 22K)
Apr: 230,000 (Off 4K)
May: 120,000 (Off 1K)

So I don't want to hear anything about me tending to underestimate PS5. From January to August 2022 I was near spot on every month. Xbox is harder to get right when calculating units and revenue as the Series S and X splits vary much more than the stagnant PS5 to DE split. I just over estimated Series S somewhat before September.
 

Gediminas

Boy...
Founder
21 Jun 2022
7,569
9,284
There you can see, you haven't played the game. The slow-mo is an effect of some armors or ability, only triggered by specific actions (e.g. perfect parry). There are builds around this ability, one of many different ways to customize your play style.

Nothing dumbed down.

And on Give Me The God of War difficulty, GOW is a lot harder than Elden Ring (which DID go the casual way in respect to its prequels).
Give me God of War difficulty by far hardest game, Souls game compared is just a cake walk, including Sekiro, second Demon's Souls playthrough or NioH.