More green rats. Great.
More green rats. Great.
I just want to say thank you for signing up for Extra after one post.I'd love to see any of you guys attempt to work out NPD results with the little we get every month and actually be close
My estimates were perfectly fine up until September where PS5 started improving better than I thought, and November was a literal shot in the dark as there was nothing to work with. I've never been confident on those November estimates but they were what I thought to be the most probable. No one expected Xbox to be that low and even then, all of my other PS5 estimates were within 10% (June and August 3%, July and September 7%, 10% November) except October at 12%.
Similarly my Xbox estimates were super close up to September, having it exactly correct in June, 5% and 4% off in July and August, 10% in September, and 16% in October. Clearly September was a shift in PS5's direction greater than what I expected. My estimates had PS5 continually gaining share up to a peak of 59% in September, but a fall towards 56% in October in November. How am I supposed to know that Xbox just flopped in the holidays when that was never the trend at any point ever?
When Aqua last shared numbers in May, this is what I had worked out each month prior to her leak, compared to what the real results were
Xbox
Jan: 320,000 (Off 13K)
Feb: 300,000 (Off 39K)
Mar: 500,000 (Off 11K)
Apr: 280,000 (Off 13K)
May: 210,000 (Off 33K)
PS5
Jan: 370,000 (Off 1K)
Feb: 150,000 (Off 22K)
Mar: 260,000 (Off 22K)
Apr: 230,000 (Off 4K)
May: 120,000 (Off 1K)
So I don't want to hear anything about me tending to underestimate PS5. From January to August 2022 I was near spot on every month. Xbox is harder to get right when calculating units and revenue as the Series S and X splits vary much more than the stagnant PS5 to DE split. I just over estimated Series S somewhat before September.
nah i was worried because you were having a seizure of something? are u ok homie?Here comes another one with his Casual target = Hardcore.
C'mon, tell me everybody makes casual games except Sony.
Estimates are a tricky business because of the limited information out there. It's fine; don't worry.I'd love to see any of you guys attempt to work out NPD results with the little we get every month and actually be close
My estimates were perfectly fine up until September where PS5 started improving better than I thought, and November was a literal shot in the dark as there was nothing to work with. I've never been confident on those November estimates but they were what I thought to be the most probable. No one expected Xbox to be that low and even then, all of my other PS5 estimates were within 10% (June and August 3%, July and September 7%, 10% November) except October at 12%.
Similarly my Xbox estimates were super close up to September, having it exactly correct in June, 5% and 4% off in July and August, 10% in September, and 16% in October. Clearly September was a shift in PS5's direction greater than what I expected. My estimates had PS5 continually gaining share up to a peak of 59% in September, but a fall towards 56% in October in November. How am I supposed to know that Xbox just flopped in the holidays when that was never the trend at any point ever?
When Aqua last shared numbers in May, this is what I had worked out each month prior to her leak, compared to what the real results were
Xbox
Jan: 320,000 (Off 13K)
Feb: 300,000 (Off 39K)
Mar: 500,000 (Off 11K)
Apr: 280,000 (Off 13K)
May: 210,000 (Off 33K)
PS5
Jan: 370,000 (Off 1K)
Feb: 150,000 (Off 22K)
Mar: 260,000 (Off 22K)
Apr: 230,000 (Off 4K)
May: 120,000 (Off 1K)
So I don't want to hear anything about me tending to underestimate PS5. From January to August 2022 I was near spot on every month. Xbox is harder to get right when calculating units and revenue as the Series S and X splits vary much more than the stagnant PS5 to DE split. I just over estimated Series S somewhat before September.
You guestimates are guestimates... I give you that... and that is fine.I'd love to see any of you guys attempt to work out NPD results with the little we get every month and actually be close
My estimates were perfectly fine up until September where PS5 started improving better than I thought, and November was a literal shot in the dark as there was nothing to work with. I've never been confident on those November estimates but they were what I thought to be the most probable. No one expected Xbox to be that low and even then, all of my other PS5 estimates were within 10% (June and August 3%, July and September 7%, 10% November) except October at 12%.
Similarly my Xbox estimates were super close up to September, having it exactly correct in June, 5% and 4% off in July and August, 10% in September, and 16% in October. Clearly September was a shift in PS5's direction greater than what I expected. My estimates had PS5 continually gaining share up to a peak of 59% in September, but a fall towards 56% in October in November. How am I supposed to know that Xbox just flopped in the holidays when that was never the trend at any point ever?
When Aqua last shared numbers in May, this is what I had worked out each month prior to her leak, compared to what the real results were
Xbox
Jan: 320,000 (Off 13K)
Feb: 300,000 (Off 39K)
Mar: 500,000 (Off 11K)
Apr: 280,000 (Off 13K)
May: 210,000 (Off 33K)
PS5
Jan: 370,000 (Off 1K)
Feb: 150,000 (Off 22K)
Mar: 260,000 (Off 22K)
Apr: 230,000 (Off 4K)
May: 120,000 (Off 1K)
So I don't want to hear anything about me tending to underestimate PS5. From January to August 2022 I was near spot on every month. Xbox is harder to get right when calculating units and revenue as the Series S and X splits vary much more than the stagnant PS5 to DE split. I just over estimated Series S somewhat before September.
God of War is casual, wanna know why? Atreaus handhold you with his chittychatty, which means the game is made for casuals.
Again, PlayStation is more casual than you think, for sure they are the global leader not because the core gamers, but because they managed to sell their product to a wider audience, and guess what? the wider audience are far bigger than hardcore gamer, you're being delusional if you think 99% of PlayStation owner are core gamers.
You're delusional to think Sony's first party games are made for hardcore, because clearly they are NOT.
If you play them and pay attention at the gameplay and not the story you can see it and feel it, but since some of you story comes first, then it is too difficult to spot these stuff.
You guestimates are guestimates... I give you that... and that is fine.
But you trend to favor Xbox over PlayStation in these guestimates... and the last NPD data showed again that.
Remember that? There are others example but that is just one of the recent ones.
That was before Amepere said Xbox was at 13.8m.
And do you realize with these US data it is impossible to Xbox be at 15 million sell-thought in June? It is more accurate to say it is around that at end of November 2022? Even if you use a 55/45 US ratio you will have less than 16 million sell-thought at November 2022.
If you do a bad public estimate then you are open to be criticized about that bad estimate.
You indeed trend to overestimate Xbox and underestimate PlayStation in your estimates for whatever reason.
BTW US data supports that Xbox shipment is probably below 20 million as end of December 2022.... unless there are over 2 million Xbox units on shelves right now.
To Xbox sell-through be over 18m at end of December you need to assume Xbox sold 1 million December in US (being very optimistic) and that US represents less than 53% of Worldwide sales.I don't like estimating sell through worldwide as there is a lot of variance. The shipments I've been calculating point towards US having less than half of worldwide sales (with XBS still being ahead of XB1 despite US sales being down), so I base sell through on that. When I made that tweet I was assuming the shipment gap would only be around 1M but it could be larger. Even then I don't think Ampere and I are that far off of each other with that sell through.
XBS sell through in the US at June 2022 is 7M. Ampere suggests that the US is slightly more than half of worldwide sales at that point. In the grand scheme of things, ~14M and ~15M are not that different. It's not a bad estimate lol, if I said Xbox sell through was 18M, that would be bad, or if I said 12M. You are getting hung up on a difference of less than 10%. It would be like saying if I estimate Y console at 63M and it's revealed to really be 65M, that my estimate is bad because you look at like "he's off by 2M!" and not "hmm the higher in the millions you get, the harder it's going to be to nail a number". If I'm off by more than 10% then yeah, something went wrong on my end. If I can get a number within 10% despite me only using public info, that's a success.
XBS sell through should be over 18M. Ampere said 7.7M were sold in 2021 (total 10.5M) and US sales alone are going to be up by at least 500K (assuming the lowest Xbox in December got is 700K), and we know Japan is up over 2021 and Europe is basically flat. 8M would be a low ball and that would put Ampere LTD at 18.5M, more likely touching 19M which would put XBS about equal to XB1 launch aligned in sell through.
US 2021: 3730KTo Xbox sell-through be over 18m at end of December you need to assume Xbox sold 1 million December in US (being very optimistic) and that US represents less than 53% of Worldwide sales.
I doubt that because US ratio historically never reached that low for Xbox… most close was 360 due late sales in emergent market.
If Xbox sold less than 1 million in US December then the things become even more dry… 52% ratio is something very unlikely… it should need to Xbox decrease sales in US and increase it outside US and there is no evidence in the countries outside US that Xbox increased sales.
Hi, can't find the leak, could you show it to me ? Thanks.Don't fall into the trap. They just don't want to discuss the leak. They are shook.
It's this post with the NPD numbersHi, can't find the leak, could you show it to me ? Thanks.
Aquamarine leaked some NPD data in InstallBase.
PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K
XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K
And how Welfare overtimater Xbox in more than 300k and underestimate PS5 in more than 200k in these months
NPD December 2022: #1 MW2 #2 Pokemon #3 God of War; NSW #1 Units (PS5 #2) PS5 #1 Revenue (NSW #2) [UPDATE: Full Report Out]
You expect TOTK to sell 23-25M (which is like 80% of BOTW LTD sales) in 8 months? I mean Splatoon's just done that in the past few months so why notwww.installbaseforum.com
Welfare’s guesstimates lol
Xbox PS5 260,000 (=) 270,000 (-7K) 260,000 (+13K) 280,000 (-21K) 240,000 (-10K) 330,000 (-11K) 320,000 (+32K) 460,000 (-34K) 310,000 (+51K) 400,000 (-56K) 950,000 (+220K) 1,200,000 (-138K)
Can you source me that 5.22m in NPD at end of 2021? Because it true then Ampere is overestimating Xbox imo (not the first time… they did with Xbox One and previous consoles).US 2021: 3730K
US 2022 November YTD: 3538K
Xbox only needs to sell 500K in December to be +300K over 2021 which would put 2022 at 8M according to Ampere's 2021 estimates.
Ampere estimated 10.5M XBS at the end of 2021, and NPD LTD was 5.22M, or just under 50% for US share. 2021 alone was 7.7M, so US share was 48%.
Europe is flat and Japan is up from 2021. Other regions could be up or down but that gets negated or boosted by Xbox selling more than 500K in December NPD.
NPD leaks for 2020 were 1.49M and CESA had 2021 at 3.73M https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...ames-white-paper-hardware-sales-in-2021.1025/Can you source me that 5.22m in NPD at end of 2021? Because it true then Ampere is overestimating Xbox imo (not the first time… they did with Xbox One and previous consoles).
Below 50% was something neither 360 with high push of emergent market late in the gen could reach.
Japan up doesn't change anything... it is like 150k (it will decrease 0.8% to the ratio).
I questioned Ampere a lot of times in the past and they were proved to be not accurate or post shipment estimate as sell-throught.NPD leaks for 2020 were 1.49M and CESA had 2021 at 3.73M https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...ames-white-paper-hardware-sales-in-2021.1025/
But actually 2021 LTD should be 5199K or 5198K. I just remembered Aqua gave LTD back with May data and XBS LTD was 6700K, 2022 was 1501K, and this recent November LTD puts 2021 LTD at 5198K, so NPD adjusted Xbox down slightly in 2020 and 2021.
I think you just want Xbox to be low at this point if you're now questioning Ampere. XBS tracks ahead of XB1 worldwide despite being behind in the US and UK, traditional country splits are not applicable this gen, especially since PS5 has the highest US share of any PS console so far. Where did they overestimate Xbox One?
I think one thing that could muddy the waters in terms of revenue numbers for Microsoft is that they probably include controllers and accessories in their "Hardware" so it gives the impression that xbox hardware revenue is better than it really is. When in reality a not insignificant chunk are controllers. Its not for nothing they have a new controller announced like every month?NPD leaks for 2020 were 1.49M and CESA had 2021 at 3.73M https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...ames-white-paper-hardware-sales-in-2021.1025/
But actually 2021 LTD should be 5199K or 5198K. I just remembered Aqua gave LTD back with May data and XBS LTD was 6700K, 2022 was 1501K, and this recent November LTD puts 2021 LTD at 5198K, so NPD adjusted Xbox down slightly in 2020 and 2021.
I think you just want Xbox to be low at this point if you're now questioning Ampere. XBS tracks ahead of XB1 worldwide despite being behind in the US and UK, traditional country splits are not applicable this gen, especially since PS5 has the highest US share of any PS console so far. Where did they overestimate Xbox One?
I've already proven this isn't the case over a year ago.I think one thing that could muddy the waters in terms of revenue numbers for Microsoft is that they probably include controllers and accessories in their "Hardware" so it gives the impression that xbox hardware revenue is better than it really is. When in reality a not insignificant chunk are controllers. Its not for nothing they have a new controller announced like every month?