I agree with you for the most part but Xbox isn't going to be equal to or surpass PlayStation in sales. The brand name and power is just way too strong. Then you add in no first party exclusive games from Microsoft for the majority of this generation and the fact that they're still rebuilding and getting everything in order after last generation, for them to just stay close will be huge. My prediction from 2020 and this is before Bethesda and potentially ABK, that Xbox will lead in NA once the generation ends and cut the 2 to 1 sales difference from last generation to 1.5 to 1 this generation.
But how does MS cut the 2:1 difference to a 1.5:1 difference if PS is gaining over them in not just ROTW markets, but also the UK and even the US? Do you really thing the appeal of games like Starfield in GP will make the difference?
Because I can say this right now: even if/when MS get approved for ABK, they aren't putting new COD games into Game Pass Day 1. They simply aren't going to keep subsidizing money for the Xbox division that much going forward, and they aren't going to cut the legs of COD's revenue potential through direct sales by putting it Day 1 in a service with various cheap loopholes available that drive down the ARPU.
The first half of this generation was always going to belong to Sony and PlayStation. Their studios were simply far more ahead in their development cycles and far more organized and ready. The second half is where I believe you'll see things be a lot closer than what they are.
But here's the thing: at one point, MS actually did have a lot of favorable mindshare. When they revealed Series X at TGAs 2019, it was a success. Sony came out with a PS5 logo and got laughed at. Even after Sony fully revealed the PS5 in March 2020 (aside from how it looked), mind share for Series X held pretty well.
Then May 2020 happened. The combination of that "gameplay" showcase, then the PS5 UE5 demo coming right after, was probably the first big mistake for MS leading into this gen. Halo Infinite's mediocre showcase the following June was another blow, then afterwards revealing the Series S because IMO, they started confusing their messaging. You can't argue you have both the most powerful and cheapest console on the market if they're two different consoles and the former isn't demonstrating its supposed power.
Since then all of their messaging & marketing has basically veered towards Series S and Game Pass; I think if MS either made Series S what Project Keystone was set to be, and/or just forwent Series S altogether to focus on Series X and pushing its power, they'd of probably actually been holding well in the US or even be slightly ahead of PS5 in NA. Particularly because 2021 was, in honesty, a bit of a "light" year for PS5 exclusives, meanwhile MS had both Forza & Halo releasing, plus some notable Day 1 Game Pass games.
If there was any year where MS could have actually gained a lead on PlayStation, at least in US & UK, it was 2021, if we're talking anything not having to do with outside factors like supply constraints and supply inflation increases. But I think MS missed their chance and now they aren't getting another. What really changes for MS from 2024-onward vs. now? Yes they will have more big games but so will PlayStation, and Sony will likely have more of them. PS5 will be even stronger of a market performer by then than they are right now, so for whatever gains Xbox makes, they won't be enough (most likely) to keep full pace let alone start closing the gap.
Because, again, there's also ROTW and outside of US & UK, PS tends to vastly outperform Xbox. US & UK were at least 65% of 360's market share. It was close to similar with XBO. Considering numbers we've gotten from other foreign markets there's no reason to assume Series ROTW market share is any higher than 40% of total sales volume so the question becomes what is Microsoft going to bring to start getting serious in
THOSE markets that isn't just simply Game Pass and xCloud availability?
The reason why Microsoft has focused on Series S is for a few reasons - availability for Series X is low due to production and manufacturing. Second, Microsoft knows that Xbox will be secondary at best for the vast majority of consumers and in some instances, third. You go with the cheaper option and push Game Pass because this is their best exclusive so to speak. Third, until they start releasing first party games on a consistent basis, there's no reason to push Series X because it's the same price but PlayStation has the brand name and power.
My belief though is that Series X volumes are only low because MS allocated what could have gone towards more Series Xs, and directed that towards Series S production budgets instead.
The whole angle of selling as the cheap option with Game Pass isn't working as well as MS would have liked; it's been said before that Series S is underperforming relative to its intent and the new NPD number leaks just outright confirm that IMHO. The fact is, they need those big 1P games consistently to benefit both the X
AND the S; simply trying to sell the power narrative or cheap value narrative isn't working as well as MS probably projected it would.
We're only two years into the generation with at least six more years to go. We have a long way to go. Outside of NA, Microsoft just needs to close the gaps and I believe they will as the generation progresses but right now, there's nothing there to entice consumers to jump in. Like I have said before, im giving Microsoft the entire generation to show me that they're getting better. I'm not going to judge them until the generation is completed.
Again, what are MS offering 2024-onward that suggests they have anything to close the gaps globally? What games are they bringing which will have the appeal globally to do so? And I'm talking about among what they actually own right now, not hypotheticals like if they get ABK (because a good deal of that content will still be on PlayStation and some of it will not hit Game Pass Day 1, such as COD or games like Diablo for that matter).
I'm not saying they don't have games coming post-2024, or that they don't have anything good in the pipeline. But marketability-wise, in terms of having mass appeal in many global markets, what do they
really have? TES VI is the only game I can think of at the top of my head maybe helping there.
Also, Microsoft has PC day one, cloud streaming and eventually a TV app/device before the generation ends which will decrease console sales because as important as console sales are, it's not the most important. The platform and eco-system is far more important and is what they truly need to build up because console versus console isn't going to work. But we'll see how it all plays out. For me personally, I just want them to deliver great games and I'll be very happy Xbox gamer.
That's assuming Project Keystone is still coming. Personally, I think it is, but then the question becomes how appealing is cloud gaming really to the mass market?
I think MS are running into a similar problem Sega did back in the mid-'90s: too many gaming products eating at each other among their brand base and product line. It can also lead to a fractured focus in software development, similar to what we saw with Sega back then. The problems manifest a bit differently but I think there are definitely some core similarities between the two.
The difference is that MS has money to try attempting that and weather the storm if things don't work; Sega didn't. But that doesn't prevent Microsoft from potentially alienating more customers than they gain, and that's something they could risk with having so many divergent console gaming products being simultaneously offered, even if some are for cloud gaming exclusively, because that still means a finite budget for resources (production, R&D, marketing etc.) has to be spread among more products. It also means their 1P teams will have to be more considerate of the technical limits of these various devices, which can affect game scope and features to varying degrees.
