Opinion: Playstation Will Miss Sales Targets for 2024

[Danja]

Yet that also stagnates the MAU, because it's a lateral transfer from the PS5 to the PS5 Pro for that same individual. They aren't going to make two different accounts for two systems or especially spend 2x the money on games, 2 PS+ subscriptions etc. when they will just use the one system (PS5 Pro).

I don't think the PS5 Pro is going to be the magical stimulant for hardware sales people are thinking it'll be. Market conditions were way more favorable for the PS4 Pro back its launch: 4K growth, well-off PSVR, big 3P games around the launch, and more content differentiation (long-term/permanent exclusives) in the software library getting big performance boosts exclusive to the PS4 Pro.

PS5 Pro has none of those advantages going for it. Lifetime sales for PS4 Pro were ~ 20 million; if things persist with PS5 as they are, PS5 Pro will probably tap out around 10 - 12 million. Just a personal guess.

Sony has and pubs have done such a terrible job this generation with distinguishing why PS5 is easily best engineered console ever. Or even why it's so much superior to the PS4.

I have so many friends who refuses to move from PS4 as they still getting most of the games, they can still play multiplayer games with their PS5 friends and graphically they're isn't anything they truly are missing out on.

How are they gonna turn convince people to spend $600 on a Pro console when the PS5 hardware itself still isn't being flexed 4 years after release?

This generation should have been the biggest homerun ever for a console maker = PlayStation and instead it's literally such a Frankenstein experiment.

Nobody buying a Pro for 120fps or checkered 8k lol.

 

[Old Gamer]

The PS5 had a lot going for it, certainly as a decently powered budget gaming machine.

But the business decisions of extending the cross-gen period and even worse, support for PC ports have actively harmed it.

 

[xollowsob]

The PS5 launch aligned

I keep seeing this phrase thrown around. What does it mean to be "launch aligned"?

 

[anonpuffs]

I keep seeing this phrase thrown around. What does it mean to be "launch aligned"?

First x months after console launch. So basically if you are e.g. comparing the switch vs ps5, you'd measure switch sales starting from march 2017 and ps5 from nov. 2020.

 

[xollowsob]

First x months after console launch. So basically if you are e.g. comparing the switch vs ps5, you'd measure switch sales starting from march 2017 and ps5 from nov. 2020.

It sounds like corporate cope.

 

[Danja]

The PS5 launch aligned has had significantly more hit games released than the PS4... These general statements never hold water and are always as vague as possible.

"This gen sucks for consoles"

What PS3 or PS4 games came out at this point that compare favorably with PS5?

I'd say PS5 stacks up as well as any gaming generation ever, but some "fans" are absolutely in their feels about things like cross gen, or multiplatform and that is saying something given how long it takes to develop games these days.

I blame really poor education systems.

You are beyond delusional. PS5 cannot compare to PS3 / PS4 when it comes to ACTUAL exclusive software launched aligned with those consoles..

And No the bunch of cross gens games it hits from Sony this generation does not count

 

[mibu no ookami]

Yet that also stagnates the MAU, because it's a lateral transfer from the PS5 to the PS5 Pro for that same individual. They aren't going to make two different accounts for two systems or especially spend 2x the money on games, 2 PS+ subscriptions etc. when they will just use the one system (PS5 Pro).

That's not how MAUs are counted. You're conflating MAUs and units sold. Again, while someone may go from a PS5 to a Ps5 Pro, for that old machine to become stagnate would require they simply keep their PS5 and not use it. What's more likely is that they trade it in and someone buys it used. Someone who is on PS4 or is a brand new user.

This is precisely why Sony is focused on total MAUs rather than just units sold.

I don't think the PS5 Pro is going to be the magical stimulant for hardware sales people are thinking it'll be. Market conditions were way more favorable for the PS4 Pro back its launch: 4K growth, well-off PSVR, big 3P games around the launch, and more content differentiation (long-term/permanent exclusives) in the software library getting big performance boosts exclusive to the PS4 Pro.

Another head scratcher. 4K growth was significantly smaller back then. The percentage of homes with 4KTVs is far more prevalent now than it was then. You're also overestimating the well being of PSVR. What big 3rd party games came out around its launch?

GTA6 playing significantly better on PS5 Pro or looking significantly better on PS5 Pro will make it the console to play it on. That's significantly more differentiated than anything the PS4 Pro had.

PS5 Pro has none of those advantages going for it. Lifetime sales for PS4 Pro were ~ 20 million; if things persist with PS5 as they are, PS5 Pro will probably tap out around 10 - 12 million. Just a personal guess.

I would love to take that bet. If Sony discloses PS5 Pro sales, we'll see, but there's no penalty for your bad takes.

Ultimately it is going to come down to factors that we don't know yet. We don't know how impactful the PS5 Pro is going to be compared to the PS5, particularly with PSSR or the price of the PS5 Pro.

One thing that you don't seem to take into consideration is that the PS4 Pro would have sold considerably better if it wasn't discontinued immediately due to the pandemic. It was the same price as the PS5 Digital. If there had been no pandemic, my guess is we would have seen pricing as follows:


PS4 - 250, possibly 200
PS4 Pro - 300, possibly 250
PS5 DE - 400
PS5 - 500

I think we would have seen a nice tail on the PS4's sales at these prices, including the PS4 Pro, but that never happened because Sony had to focus supply chain resources towards the PS5 and it didn't make sense to pay jacked up prices on components for PS4, but as a result sony was robbed of some MAUs that probably went to the Switch.

 

[mibu no ookami]

The PS5 had a lot going for it, certainly as a decently powered budget gaming machine.

But the business decisions of extending the cross-gen period and even worse, support for PC ports have actively harmed it.

You are beyond delusional. PS5 cannot compare to PS3 / PS4 when it comes to ACTUAL exclusive software launched aligned with those consoles..

And No the bunch of cross gens games it hits from Sony this generation does not count

These are fundamentally mistaken and misguided statements, that largely conflate fanboy desires and what is/isn't good for business.

Gran Turismo 6 not playing on PS4 was not good for business. It hurt the PS4 sales early and probably diminished the sales potential of the game. The same is true of God of War 2 that released on PS2 instead of PS3 (at least the early PS3s were BC with PS2, but this resulted in a higher price of the PS3, again an actual bad business decision).

Cross gen absolutely counts, why wouldn't it? It's the future of game development. One of the largest disadvantages of console gaming historically has been the cut off between generations where a new generation starts but has a small userbase. PC never really had this problem and as a result PC gets a lot of focus year in and year out.

For really the first time in gaming, consoles have the same advantage and we've seen megahits like Hogwarts Legacy and Elden Ring as a result.

Moving forward cross gen titles will allow for games to be stronger earlier in a generation and with much larger budgets. God of War 2 would have made for an excellent PS3 launch title or soon thereafter instead we were stuck with a 480p game. If GT6 had been built for PS4 in mind, we would have had a much better GT game on PS4 than GT Sport.

As for PC ports, that doesn't harm you in any way.

 

[xollowsob]

These are fundamentally mistaken and misguided statements, that largely conflate fanboy desires and what is/isn't good for business.

Gran Turismo 6 not playing on PS4 was not good for business. It hurt the PS4 sales early and probably diminished the sales potential of the game. The same is true of God of War 2 that released on PS2 instead of PS3 (at least the early PS3s were BC with PS2, but this resulted in a higher price of the PS3, again an actual bad business decision).

Cross gen absolutely counts, why wouldn't it? It's the future of game development. One of the largest disadvantages of console gaming historically has been the cut off between generations where a new generation starts but has a small userbase. PC never really had this problem and as a result PC gets a lot of focus year in and year out.

For really the first time in gaming, consoles have the same advantage and we've seen megahits like Hogwarts Legacy and Elden Ring as a result.

Moving forward cross gen titles will allow for games to be stronger earlier in a generation and with much larger budgets. God of War 2 would have made for an excellent PS3 launch title or soon thereafter instead we were stuck with a 480p game. If GT6 had been built for PS4 in mind, we would have had a much better GT game on PS4 than GT Sport.

As for PC ports, that doesn't harm you in any way.

Are you a Sony exec?
Imagine believing what you've just typed.
Cross gen has hurt the PS5. PC ports have hurt the PS5.

If you can't understand that, that's on you and not the other posters to ELI5 business to you.

 

[Muddasar]

Who even cares? We all know why this thread was created.

Sales targets are simply for Shareholder and Investor digestion.

Sony sold 20.8 million units last fiscal year and missed their sales target of 25 million.

This fiscal year they could sell 19 million and exceed their sales target of 18 million.

Which year is better?

Irrelevant to us.

 

[Danja]

These are fundamentally mistaken and misguided statements, that largely conflate fanboy desires and what is/isn't good for business.

Gran Turismo 6 not playing on PS4 was not good for business. It hurt the PS4 sales early and probably diminished the sales potential of the game. The same is true of God of War 2 that released on PS2 instead of PS3 (at least the early PS3s were BC with PS2, but this resulted in a higher price of the PS3, again an actual bad business decision).

Cross gen absolutely counts, why wouldn't it? It's the future of game development. One of the largest disadvantages of console gaming historically has been the cut off between generations where a new generation starts but has a small userbase. PC never really had this problem and as a result PC gets a lot of focus year in and year out.

For really the first time in gaming, consoles have the same advantage and we've seen megahits like Hogwarts Legacy and Elden Ring as a result.

Moving forward cross gen titles will allow for games to be stronger earlier in a generation and with much larger budgets. God of War 2 would have made for an excellent PS3 launch title or soon thereafter instead we were stuck with a 480p game. If GT6 had been built for PS4 in mind, we would have had a much better GT game on PS4 than GT Sport.

As for PC ports, that doesn't harm you in any way.

Yes! Even Shu admitted GT6 being on PS3 was a mistake but that's irrelevant to everything here.

PlayStation themselves revealed all their now current cross gen exclusives from the first 2 years as PS5 only games at first. Let's not forget that important detail
Why do you they did that?

Why did they also move Ratchet from being PS4 to a PS5 game only? Jim Ryan came out and said basically the only reason they allowed the PS4 versions of games to be released was because they many people wouldn't be able to get a PS5 and obviously the sales of these games would have suffered to an extent.

Cross gen has done nothing more than pacify PS4 owners into realizing they aren't missing out on PS5 games because they also will get them.

 

[Box]

…. and? Nintnedo doesn't own bandi Namco, yet they make smash bros.

It is also Co Developed by Sora LTD. Who make the kirby games. Why did you conveniently leave that part out?

 

[mibu no ookami]

Cross gen has hurt the PS5. PC ports have hurt the PS5.

Hurt it how? Be specific.

 

[Old Gamer]

Hurt it how? Be specific.

Consumers have had less of an incentive to buy a PS5 than previous playstations.

 

[mibu no ookami]

Consumers have had less of an incentive to buy a PS5 than previous playstations.

If that is the case why is the ps5 ahead of the ps4 in North America and Japan?

The reality is your projecting. You personally don't like these things, but the market doesn't care.

 

[Gediminas]

If that is the case why is the ps5 ahead of the ps4 in North America and Japan?

The reality is your projecting. You personally don't like these things, but the market doesn't care.

You keep fanboys this and fans that.

How about you steelman @Old Gamer position instead of strawmanning?

He doesn't speak about sold numbers but about Incentives, and he is right, there is less incentives, like 40% PS5 customers are new customers, what does that mean?
I won't answer that, i will let you to figure that out by yourself, in the end, we are just pesky little fanboys.

 

[xollowsob]

Hurt it how? Be specific.

Why buy a PS5 to play fan favourite franchises like GoW2 and Horizon 2 when I stick with my PS4 or PC?

Why buy a PS5 for cult classic Helldivers 2 when I have a PC?

The sales split speaks volumes in each of those cases.

 

[Muddasar]

Why buy a PS5 to play fan favourite franchises like GoW2 and Horizon 2 when I stick with my PS4 or PC?

Why buy a PS5 for cult classic Helldivers 2 when I have a PC?

The sales split speaks volumes in each of those cases.

Works both ways. Why buy or build a PC when I can buy a PS5 for 500 dollars for these games. No waiting time either.

Stop acting like you are the average gamer.

90% of gamers are casual and don’t reside on gaming forums either.

The casuals are gonna buy their Consoles and PCs regardless.

Also Helldivers 2 is an exception not the norm. Every other PC port has sold peanuts compared to the console counterparts.

Neither is it a system seller.

You telling me people are buying PS5s or PCs to play the game? Come on.

Honestly PCMR and them thinking they are the main attraction.

 

[xollowsob]

Works both ways. Why buy or build a PC when I can buy a PS5 for 500 dollars for these games. No waiting time either.

You could argue that Building a PC gives access to more than what buying a PS5 would.
What you can't argue is people who already own a PS4 or PC would be spending 0 instead of £500

Stop acting like you are the average gamer.

90% of gamers are casual and don’t reside on gaming forums either.

Stop jumping at shadows. I don't read opinions on forums, I read the results; sales, financials, growth and compare it to similar cases in the industry.

The casuals are gonna buy their Consoles and PCs regardless.

They've bought their consoles; a switch and a PS4.

Also Helldivers 2 is an exception not the norm. Every other PC port has sold peanuts compared to the console counterparts.

Were those PC games that had already released for the PS4, or brand new exclusives like HD2?

Neither is it a system seller.

You telling me people are buying PS5s or PCs to play the game? Come on.

It's been a long time since a single game sold consoles, so why would anyone assume that's the case today? It's not.
People need multiple reasons to buy a console and have more games exclusive to one platform adds to those reasons.

Honestly PCMR and them thinking they are the main attraction.

Which part of your arse did you pull this seeth from? If you're accusing me of being PCMR then lol, lmao even.

The fact is, the PS5 is over-priced and offers little in the way of exclusives. FOMO and novelty; the reasons to buy a PS5 when it launched, have long passed.

 

[mibu no ookami]

Works both ways. Why buy or build a PC when I can buy a PS5 for 500 dollars for these games. No waiting time either.

Stop acting like you are the average gamer.

90% of gamers are casual and don’t reside on gaming forums either.

The casuals are gonna buy their Consoles and PCs regardless.

Also Helldivers 2 is an exception not the norm. Every other PC port has sold peanuts compared to the console counterparts.

Neither is it a system seller.

You telling me people are buying PS5s or PCs to play the game? Come on.

Honestly PCMR and them thinking they are the main attraction.

If Helldivers had sold on PS4 it would have outsold the PC counterpart. Ironic given his overall argument and not understanding why games are cross-platform or multiplatform.

He said he reads results but can't explain why the PS5 is outselling the PS4 in North America and Japan.

Admitted he doesn't even know what launch aligned means and thinks it is corporate speak. Somehow he thinks everyone with a PS4 would have bought a PS5 within a year had it not been for crossgen and multiplatform games.