appearently negative is that they are going to miss their mark by 2 millions.
It is like United make fun of City for this year they only won the league and CL even though they aiming for the treble like last year.
PS5 shipments top 54.8 million as of December 2023. Has outsold Xbox Series X/S 2-1, data suggests
- Thread starter Gamernyc78
- Start date
It is like United make fun of City for this year they only won the league and CL even though they aiming for the treble like last year.
Only "negative" would be the profit margins. They were never hitting the 25M forecast so getting that confirmed is disappointing but expected.
It wasn't random and it was official. Microsoft literally telling indie devs how big the Xbox install base was to sell their games to. They also said it earlier that year at GDC, so the 21M was accurate as of around March 2023.
This estimate is actually impossible…
Let me ask how many units do you believe Series sold until end of December 2023 in US?
Xbox hardware is missing targets. Xbox software is only when a big milestone happens, like Sea of Thieves on Steam selling 5M. Idk why they haven't announced a new Game Pass number. Maybe they're waiting for 50M or something?
<13.5M
IMO.
The max Series worldwide: 24.1m (56% US).
But my bet is around 23.3m (58% US).
Of course that using exactly 13.5m… anything below that decrease my guesstimates too.
Now I saw some people talking about 27m, 28m, 29m, etc on Twitter…
These are impossible… it need US to be below 50%… something that only console with strong Japan and Europe presence managed to do.
@Welfare Gamepass stagnated.
That is why they didn’t announce new milestones… Mat is saying that for months already in US.
And MS themselves (if you take the leaks) said to employees that it is not growing like they wanted.
Stagnation means they are still closer to 30m that 40m… let’s not talk about 50m.
You don’t have enough userbase for that… even if all Series owners (not possible) have Gamepass you will be below 25m plus some more millions from PC.
That is why they didn’t announce new milestones… Mat is saying that for months already in US.
And MS themselves (if you take the leaks) said to employees that it is not growing like they wanted.
Stagnation means they are still closer to 30m that 40m… let’s not talk about 50m.
You don’t have enough userbase for that… even if all Series owners (not possible) have Gamepass you will be below 25m plus some more millions from PC.
No it was just a marketing number like they do for Game Pass numbers or Number of players. It's spin. All the data we have says it's impossible they were at 21 millions sold to customers at that time.
I don't know why you keep dreaming about these huge sales numbers. You're very high-profile with Mat NPD, your tweets get around and you have your own sales forum. Don't you care about your credibility? Making fantasies about Xbox sales is more important to you?
To end the "22M" crap once and for all. Anyone trying to claim it otherwise is a certified clown.
Confirmed XBS shipments: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...-46-market-share-from-fy-2022-q1-3-7-8m.1963/
^Since the pandemic heavily impacted sales to the point where it sold out in minutes before June 2021, assuming we add the following month's sales (April 2021) for a maximum "shipped" figure.
^ Series S was in stock by March 2022, but Series X was still selling out quickly, so again, adding April 2022 assuming a maximum shipment figure:
XBS third quarter is unfortunately missing but won't be too far off the above data.
That first year and some months, all those quarters together show a ~46% US sell through ratio to WW shipments. We can safely conclude that from November 2020 to March 2022, US shipments were <50% of total worldwide shipments.
Math wise, XBS literally can't have close to 60% of its LTD come from the US. We also have the numbers from CESA for US and Europe that doesn't show a significant increase in US share since 2020.
Again, nothing pointing to a significant shift towards the US since 2020, 2021, and 2022.
Everything above is official, hard numbers.
Considering there was no significant shift towards US in worldwide shipments from 2020 to March 2022 (only a 1.4-point shift) and no shift in the comparison to Europe from 2020 to 2022 (only a 1.1-point shift), there is literally no evidence to suggest that the sell through LTD US ratio by the end of 2022 is even at 50.0%.
This hard places WW XBS 2022 sell through at ~19M, 99.9% confidence it's above 19M (9.68M US sell through / 0.5 = 19.36M). The ~19M is inarguable, therefore, any claim that XBS shipments are at 22M at the end of 2023 is not even considerable for logical discussion.
Recap
- XBS first 6 quarters (minus Quarter 3) shipped 12.4M
- XBS from November 2020 to March 2022 had a US sell through to worldwide shipment ratio of ~46:54.
- XBS US vs Europe up to 2022 remained at a consistent ~70:30 ratio
- XBS end of 2022 sales would be ~19M, inarguable
2023 US sales I would estimate between 3.75M-3.8M. That + the near guaranteed 19M 2022 LTD = 22.7M. Even if I gave you that the US ratio would be ~60% in 2023 alone, that's still ~6.2M sales, + 19M = ~25M sold through.
We have the numbers for XBS, it's not as low as anyone here is trying to make it out to be.
XBS has been doing well outside the US, or rather the US is underperforming to the point where Xbox share in ROTW is "improving".
Confirmed XBS shipments: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...-46-market-share-from-fy-2022-q1-3-7-8m.1963/
| FY | WW Shipments | US Sell Through | Estimated US Shipments^ | US Sell Through % to WW Shipments | US Shipments % to WW Shipments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 Q1 to Q3 (July 20 - March 21) | 4.6M | ~2.0M | ~2.2M | 43.5% | 47.8% |
| FY22 Q1 to Q3 (July 21 - March 22) | 7.8M | ~3.65M | ~3.9M | 46.8% | 50.0% |
| Total | 12.4M | ~5.65M | ~6.1M | 45.6% | 49.2% |
^Since the pandemic heavily impacted sales to the point where it sold out in minutes before June 2021, assuming we add the following month's sales (April 2021) for a maximum "shipped" figure.
^ Series S was in stock by March 2022, but Series X was still selling out quickly, so again, adding April 2022 assuming a maximum shipment figure:
XBS third quarter is unfortunately missing but won't be too far off the above data.
That first year and some months, all those quarters together show a ~46% US sell through ratio to WW shipments. We can safely conclude that from November 2020 to March 2022, US shipments were <50% of total worldwide shipments.
Math wise, XBS literally can't have close to 60% of its LTD come from the US. We also have the numbers from CESA for US and Europe that doesn't show a significant increase in US share since 2020.
| Year | US | CESA Tracked Europe | Total | US % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.49M | 0.66M | 2.15M | 69.3% |
| 2021 | 3.70M | 1.58M | 5.28M | 70.1% |
| 2022 | 4.48M | 1.83M | 6.31M | 71.0% |
| Total | 9.68M | 4.07M | 13.75M | 70.4% |
Again, nothing pointing to a significant shift towards the US since 2020, 2021, and 2022.
Everything above is official, hard numbers.
Considering there was no significant shift towards US in worldwide shipments from 2020 to March 2022 (only a 1.4-point shift) and no shift in the comparison to Europe from 2020 to 2022 (only a 1.1-point shift), there is literally no evidence to suggest that the sell through LTD US ratio by the end of 2022 is even at 50.0%.
This hard places WW XBS 2022 sell through at ~19M, 99.9% confidence it's above 19M (9.68M US sell through / 0.5 = 19.36M). The ~19M is inarguable, therefore, any claim that XBS shipments are at 22M at the end of 2023 is not even considerable for logical discussion.
Recap
- XBS first 6 quarters (minus Quarter 3) shipped 12.4M
- XBS from November 2020 to March 2022 had a US sell through to worldwide shipment ratio of ~46:54.
- XBS US vs Europe up to 2022 remained at a consistent ~70:30 ratio
- XBS end of 2022 sales would be ~19M, inarguable
2023 US sales I would estimate between 3.75M-3.8M. That + the near guaranteed 19M 2022 LTD = 22.7M. Even if I gave you that the US ratio would be ~60% in 2023 alone, that's still ~6.2M sales, + 19M = ~25M sold through.
We have the numbers for XBS, it's not as low as anyone here is trying to make it out to be.
I didn't say they were near 50 million. They're in the 35M-40M range unless Gold subs significantly declined that didn't convert to Game Pass Core or Ultimate.
Xbox consoles had 33.6M subs across Gold and Game Pass in April 2022, and PC Game Pass / Game Pass in general has seen YOY growth every quarter, so add PC to that 33.6M, you're looking at close to 40M. They could've easily announced a new number much higher than 25M by now if they really wanted to. Why not? IDK, same reason Microsoft refused to give numbers for XBS every time Satya Nadella said it was the fastest selling Xbox. When would they announce a new number? Either when they 1) announce ABK games going into Game Pass in some "here's how much we've grown since that announcement", 2) buy another publisher, or 3) reach a significant milestone like 50M.
Literally no data ANYWHERE contradicts a 21M XBS in early to mid 2023. Look above.No it was just a marketing number like they do for Game Pass numbers or Number of players. It's spin. All the data we have says it's impossible they were at 21 millions sold to customers at that time.
I don't know why you keep dreaming about these huge sales numbers. You're very high-profile with Mat NPD, your tweets get around and you have your own sales forum. Don't you care about your credibility? Making fantasies about Xbox sales is more important to you?
Just because a random twitter account takes the T2 77M, subtracts PS5's LTD shipment from that, and claims XBS must be at 22M, doesn't mean XBS is at 22M.
this retard really thing that joke piece of hardware has its US base lower than 70%
Sureeeeee you track you number in US very well, but your toys aint selling anywhere from US/UK more than 15% of its base? Prove that it is US 60% then, I will wait?
There is still 200K of Potato docked here in my country, you know the one that that rat cars salemans boasting about biggest growth.
Idk, selling 2 more potatos from 1 is probably a big growth. When PS5 is outselling your toys close to 2:1 in United fuckint States , your overlord prbably should throw the towel.
Sureeeeee you track you number in US very well, but your toys aint selling anywhere from US/UK more than 15% of its base? Prove that it is US 60% then, I will wait?
There is still 200K of Potato docked here in my country, you know the one that that rat cars salemans boasting about biggest growth.
Idk, selling 2 more potatos from 1 is probably a big growth. When PS5 is outselling your toys close to 2:1 in United fuckint States , your overlord prbably should throw the towel.
So you continue being delusional lol
Last time I was right… this time it will probably be the same.
The data we have don’t support the numbers you guess
BTW the Series situation in EU is even worst than last gen and you believe the ration of US decreased
I literally gave you the worldwide shipment numbers from 2020 to March 2022 and the Europe comparisons showing there wasn't a shift bigger than 2% in two years.
Holy fuck why don't you trying to point out where I'm wrong in that post.So you continue being delusional lol
Last time I was right… this time it will probably be the same
You can't claim I'm delusional when you refuse to tackle hard numbers. and you were right about what?
he has no credibility, Mat just responds to him cuz he feels bad for himNo it was just a marketing number like they do for Game Pass numbers or Number of players. It's spin. All the data we have says it's impossible they were at 21 millions sold to customers at that time.
I don't know why you keep dreaming about these huge sales numbers. You're very high-profile with Mat NPD, your tweets get around and you have your own sales forum. Don't you care about your credibility? Making fantasies about Xbox sales is more important to you?
Today I learned being outsold 20:1 in Europe and 40:1 in Japan = doing well
