There's a big difference: The PS5 generation is the most successful one for Sony, while the PS3 one was the least successful one.
Being specific to ND, their most successful game ever in sales and awards was TLOU2, released just before the PS5 release. They now have way more workers they ever had, and for the first time they now have been working on 3 new games at the same time (plus possible additional secondary projects like ports/remakes/remasters/movie or tv show adaptations).
TLOU2 was released aprox. 3 years and a half ago, and nowadays AAA games take 5-9 years to be developed. Assuming they took a few months after TLOU2 release to start their next SP game (ignoring TLOU Online), then it would be aprox. 2-7 years away from release, so I wouldn't expect it to be shown this or next year. Specially to avoid something like with TLOU Online, when they shown early a game that later got cancelled.
I'd bet this time won't announce their next game until pretty close to the game release, maximum a year before releasing it. Which would mean they'd announce it somewhere around 2025-2030. Their other SP game apparently started in H1 2023, meaning pretty likely they'd announce it somewhere around 2027-2032.