"most overrated game of all time"
No, Stray was 2022.
Eh, sounds like putting the cart before the horse. This years line up of games yet to come will take no prisoners during award season. I doubt anything release so far is so much as a bullet point by years end.
Even big games like Dead Space seemed to come and go
While I'm not comparing the two directly, don't forget that Mass Effect 2 was also a January release and it ended up being neck and neck with Red Dead for its respective games GoTY award tally.