"most overrated game of all time"
No, Stray was 2022.
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Eh, sounds like putting the cart before the horse. This years line up of games yet to come will take no prisoners during award season. I doubt anything release so far is so much as a bullet point by years end.
Even big games like Dead Space seemed to come and go
While I'm not comparing the two directly, don't forget that Mass Effect 2 was also a January release and it ended up being neck and neck with Red Dead for its respective games GoTY award tally.