The evidence says that revenue from both their PS and non-PS businesses keep growing year to year (so no evidence of negative impact of the PC stuff in console business, if something it would be a positive impact) and that they are confident to achieve the 25M.
No evidence? Buddy, they've been aggressively pricing PS5 console bundles the past couple of months to drive these sales. There is absolutely more demand for PlayStation than Xbox (at virtually any price point), but if the level of demand were enough to hit 25 million FY without the pricing deals, they wouldn't be doing the pricing deals. Simple as that.
Now, as to why demand wouldn't be enough to hit the 25 million FY target without the pricing deals currently happening? That's anyone's guess. But I wouldn't assume PC ports to be a non-zero factor in that picture, it would be stupid to pretend otherwise. IMO I'd say sans the pricing deals, they'd probably be doing 18 - 20 million for the FY, rather than 25.
And well, they also still have a lot of games that can only be played on PS. In addition to this, these ported SP games are released on PC around 2+ years after the original release (the original game, not remasters/remakes) on PS, once they already sold most of the units they could sell in PS and often after having been included in PS Plus too.
Honestly, how many current releases do they have that can only be played on PlayStation? It and Xbox sharing 90% of the same 3P games, and many Japanese 3P games that were defacto exclusives last gen getting releases now on Xbox this gen (including in cases with infamous brand association like Yakuza & Persona which, if you're in the West, would assume are Xbox franchises with the way Sega have been marketing them this gen).
Not to mention PC getting a lot more 3P games this gen Day 1 than last gen (and Jim Ryan himself admitting that PC is a competitor to console platforms like PlayStation, because it's true) so, what are these specific exclusives you speak of? Are they full-on exclusives, or "console exclusives"? Are they timed exclusives? Is the timed exclusivity window meaningful?
You're repeating marketing points for PlayStation the way I've seen Xbox people repeat Phil Spencer's marketing points for that platform. Bringing up the 2-year time frame as if software exclusivity only has an effect for two years after a product launches (ignoring the catalog effect of software exclusivity persistent over the course of a generation, something companies like Nintendo seem to understand quite well) as if it's a legit strategy simply because it's mentioned in a fiscal call, is just blindly following what a company wants you to accept.
The PS+ stuff though, I could say makes some sense, because HFW for example was for Extra and Premium members, who likely already bought the game at launch. Though probably better to stagger it to just Premium first, then cascade down to the other tiers later on.