Ampere Analysis / Console Sales: PS5 (21.7 million), Xbox Series X|S (13.8 million)

24 Jun 2022
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Instead of trying to play gotcha, you could simply look into Microsoft's financial reports yourself. You would then realize that the above table is wrong. Or you could just look at the table and see that several stupid mistakes were made just by falsely adding up the numbers (apparently, 8.3 + 0.7 = 8.3 🤣) Anyway, here's the real number:

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So 11.6m consoles in the first 7 quarters. Looks like VGChartz has been "estimating" numbers back then, too.

Shipped != Sold Through. They could've had consoles in the distribution channels but unsold. In fact, this was absolutely the case, because of RROD. Not only that but demand for 360 during the first year or so wasn't as high as it grew to after the PS3's E3 2006 showing and subsequent release, or when Gears of War (considered by many as the first "must have" 360 exclusive) launched.

It's not 24 months. FY07 ends in June 30, 2007. Xbox 360 started selling in Q2 of FY06. So it's seven quarters, or 20 months since sales started in November. The 10.4m figure is clearly wrong.

Shipped numbers don't refute sold-through retailer numbers. Both can be simultaneously true.

Hmmm, looks like Series X/S isn’t selling that much better than Xbox One during the same time frame.

The media and fans keep saying Series X/S is selling faster than the 360 but the Xbox One was also selling faster than the 360, then it slowed down after 2 years. But what they fail to mention is the Series S is much cheaper than the Xbox One. So comparatively, its not doing better.

My prediction of no more than 60-70million units still counts. Even with a much cheaper Series S

I think Series overall can do ~ 65 million LTD, maybe 70 million LTD if their 1P hits consistently and they don't make any major mistakes, and we're just looking as Series X & S, or their (maybe) mid-gen replacements.

If the rumors of the streaming box turn out to be true, and they count that towards Series, then they actually could hit 100+ million LTD but that would be with a family of wildly different devices of wildly different hardware configurations, and would probably consist mostly of Series S and the streaming box.

Not bad, but a lot of this is dependent on what 3P revenue, 1P sales, and GamePass revenue ends up looking like. Because as you said, Series S and definitely the streaming box won't bring in as much revenue as XBO did, so that revenue has to come from somewhere. Because in Microsoft's case, that's where any profits for Xbox are actually in, not the consoles (I guess the peripherals bring in some profit too, though).
 
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TubzGaming

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Please stop insulting people, You know who you are.
Also like i have stated many times if you have info or proof to prove a point show it.
If it is sound and can not be disputed that's even better.
Random tweets are not proof of facts, We need to see the data.

Again please be cordial and respect each other we all are here to talk about what we like/love
and insulting one another gets you nowhere.
 
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peter42O

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Wait.......... so no one uses VG Chartz for this generation which has Xbox Series at almost 17m and claim they can't go by that number because Microsoft hasn't released console sales numbers but at the same time will use Ampere because it has Xbox Series at almost 14m which is 3m less than VG Chartz. Huh. Funny how this works.
 

DynamiteCop

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Wait.......... so no one uses VG Chartz for this generation which has Xbox Series at almost 17m and claim they can't go by that number because Microsoft hasn't released console sales numbers but at the same time will use Ampere because it has Xbox Series at almost 14m which is 3m less than VG Chartz. Huh. Funny how this works.
Yeah, and back in APRIL Aaron Greenberg a senior employee at Xbox retweets VGChartz sales info of 13.87 million over 4 months ago and yet that doesn't mean anything.

It's the Sony denial cult, nothing more, nothing less.
 

Gods&Monsters

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Wait.......... so no one uses VG Chartz for this generation which has Xbox Series at almost 17m and claim they can't go by that number because Microsoft hasn't released console sales numbers but at the same time will use Ampere because it has Xbox Series at almost 14m which is 3m less than VG Chartz. Huh. Funny how this works.
VGChartz is a website run by a random person. No one ever took them seriously, they go back and update their guesses whenever official data comes out.

Ampere have access to the real sales data from retailers and their numbers were quoted several times before this news. Suddenly Xbox fans are angry at these numbers so Ampere lost all credibility? Funny how this works indeed.
 
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peter42O

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VGChartz is a website run by a random person. No one ever took them seriously, they go back and update their guesses whenever official data comes out.

Ampere have access to the real sales data from retailers and their numbers were quoted several times before this news. Suddenly Xbox fans are angry at these numbers so Ampere lost all credibility? Funny how this works indeed.

I have followed VGC since the 360/PS3 era yet only recently have I heard of Ampere so yeah, im going with VGC just like I have for almost 15 years compared to Ampere which has just recently come out of the wood work and have existed for less than half the time of VGC. So again, I'll go with VGC. Always have and always will.
 
24 Jun 2022
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Has to be one of the biggest flops of all time. 200+ person studio, who outsources art asset creation to cheap labor in India. Wasted half a decade conceptualizing stuff that went nowhere. And now requiring an outside studio to make a product for the game people will actually maybe play. Cross media campaign with a fucking high budget tv show that was supposed to increase brand awareness but instead hurt it more. Like for fucks sake … LOL

I want to say it’s the biggest blunder of all time.

I genuinely think a lot of earlier work on Halo Infinite was rebooted at some point in 2019, because I don't think it was originally going to be a GaaS/live-service style F2P game.

Also just look at the 2018 reveal trailer compared to what actually came out; why put all that in a trailer for a game with a "10-year plan"? Nah, something makes me think what they had before was scrapped, gutted, and parts recobbled into the corpse of a game that exists today to fit a F2P/live-service model.

We need a disgruntled 343i dev to come out and leak some of this if true xD.

God why do some of you care so damn much about your chosen plastic winning some race?

It's really kinda... I don't know.. how do I be nice about this?

I don't think it's about cheering for one to dominate the other or anything like that. For me, it's about keeping the record straight, because while one company is very transparent about sell-through numbers, the other is the complete opposite and only somewhat transparent with sell-in (shipped) numbers.

If we have actual data out there, it helps keep the record straight and cuts down some of the noise from people one side or the other who may try to claim Xbox is "gaining ground" on PlayStation WRT unit sales (when the gap now is larger than it was for the previous gen consoles at this point in their lifecycle).

But, it also shuts down some of the stuff with people who try making Xbox Series sound like a disaster in sales: it's still outpacing the 360, that part is true and while people may not be cool with that when looking at the exclusives compared to that system, they have to accept that it is, in fact, outpacing the 360.

Honestly feel like Starfield is going to be a big test of XBox marketability this gen.

It absolutely is, and that showing at the June Showcase was not the game putting its best foot forward. The talk about stuff like 1,000 planets and whatnot, to me was not inspiring.

So I'm actually kind of glad they pulled out any further showing of Starfield at Gamescom because going by what they did the for 1P that was there, it would've been a circle-jerk of Bethesda devs being extravagant and hyping up the game amongst themselves reshowing the same footage from the June showcase most likely, or barely improved footage. Would've killed even more of what hype is still there.

The next showing has to be showstopping and look like more than just Fallout 4 in space.
 
24 Jun 2022
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Microsoft paid more for priority so obviously they have more stock, also for every failed Series X due to yields they can create two Series S consoles so also of course there's tons of those in the market.

That's not how it works. If they get a bad Series X chip, it gets thrown into the Azure cluster. They can't just cut the chip in half and make to Series S' out of it, it's still only a single CPU there and besides the chips are monolithic.

If MS retry this S/X approach again for another gen, or if Sony also attempt something similar, they will 100% use chiplets and can, in fact, reconfigure chiplet yields into the higher-end or lower-end product rather easily.

PS5 flying, and not a surprise when you look at the games Sony has been putting out.

Still God of War Ragnorak to come, and then the hype and lead-up to FF16 soon after that.

Meanwhile it feels like Xbox is still only strong in the US, and relatively strong in the UK. Don't think Starfield is going to make the impact they're hoping for either, more for PC crowd if anything.

Depends on the mod support on console. But if that's weak, then yeah I don't imagine it doing much for Xbox itself. Bethesda games seem to live or die off their mods.
 
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Heisenberg007

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Wait.......... so no one uses VG Chartz for this generation which has Xbox Series at almost 17m and claim they can't go by that number because Microsoft hasn't released console sales numbers but at the same time will use Ampere because it has Xbox Series at almost 14m which is 3m less than VG Chartz. Huh. Funny how this works.
The two websites cannot be compared.

VGChartz mostly uses guesswork and is notorious for getting numbers wrong and guessing the data. Here is just one of many examples.

Ampere Analysis on the other hand is a very reputed analyst firm that can be trusted. Without official numbers that MS releases in their financial reports, Ampere Analysis data is the closest we will ever get.

Yes, both are analysts, but one is untrustworthy, and the other is an industry veteran and fairly respected. They cannot be compared. Just like both are "insiders": Jason Schreier and Robert Serrano, but you know you can trust Jason but not Robert.
 
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24 Jun 2022
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Who cares anymore, point being this is all wrong. Aaron retweeted this back in April which undoubtedly means Ampere is wrong and VGChartz is actually accurate.

13.87 million in APRIL, so that 16.4 million figure is the actual representation of the Series consoles.



It's not. Aaron Greenburg retweeting VGChartz means very little when Nadella only vaguely gave a hint at Series sales afterwards. Why would the person clearly above Greenburg position-wise not use that opportunity to directly cite their numbers, if they were accurate? I mean MS already said a long time ago they would never speak sales numbers again, but now you've got a marketing head quoting sales numbers on Twitter and the CEO very much referencing sales numbers of a prior console they DID give sales numbers for, to their current console(s) to indicate THEIR sales, which is basically them talking about sales numbers again?

I'll tell you why. Because if he did, and they turned out to be false, shareholders could hold MS accountable. I'm pretty sure a government agency like the SEC could also hold them accountable for presenting false sales numbers publicly. That's why Nadella only gave a vague statement of Series X/S outpacing 360 during the timeframe, but never said by how much.

And it's why Aaron, who's just a PR person, retweeted VGChartz numbers on Twitter. Twitter isn't an official company statement. It's not a fiscal report for shareholders, either. He also could've been implying sold-in on his behalf and as the VGChartz numbers never distinguished between sold-in or sold-through, they could've still been accurate just not in the way you're thinking.

I don't have a good memory, so excuse me if I'm wrong. But I think the article that you're referring to was from a third-party "gaming news" website. The writer took two different sets of data (one of which came from Ampere) and made weird assumptions that inflated Gamepass's revenue numbers and market share.

I don't it was Ampere fault (assuming I'm remembering things correctly).

Ah, well that may explain it then. I'm too lazy to search for the links to that article, but it sounds about right. The way that article was written seems like what a typical gaming website would put out anyway.

There's nothing to reason, there's fact and there is fiction. A senior employee retweeted a post stating the Series consoles had sold 13.87 million back in April.

That solidifies that tweet as valid, there's nothing to debate here.

Again, they didn't specify sold-in or sold-through. Aaron could've meant to imply the quoted figure as sold-in, VGChartz could've guessimated as sold-through, but in such a case Aaron could claim plausible deniability and still been "correct" in retweeting that number.

Wait.......... so no one uses VG Chartz for this generation which has Xbox Series at almost 17m and claim they can't go by that number because Microsoft hasn't released console sales numbers but at the same time will use Ampere because it has Xbox Series at almost 14m which is 3m less than VG Chartz. Huh. Funny how this works.

Ampere and VGChartz are in two vastly different wheelhouses. One's more like NPD and the other's more like a Wiki fan page.