Microsoft's acquisition of Activison Blizzard
- Thread starter Darth Vader
- Start date
Lmao. Like I said the CMA is playing 4D chess. This pushes the appeal date back like they originally wanted.
lol.
The MS proposed one? No way CMA would accept that lol.
Isn't that just a way for them not to have gamepass in the 2 biggest market
Its down 50 cents from yesterday's close but still up 7 dollars from yesterday's open. The FTC decision (and CMA announcement?) are helping the stock but not much. Little weird here, Googling says AB's current market cap is 70.44 billion but wasn't Microsoft only paying out 70 billion in the merger? I suppose the price reflects that plus a small chance the deal still fails and AB gets its 3 billion fee while retaining independence.
edit: Microsoft stock, for those who care, went up with the announcement, but not by much, and has already lost half of that gain. MS investors aren't in it for Xbox and don't really care. The stock isn't even up on the week at this point.
Yeah, but CMA wants a global CoD divestiture. They ain't buying this shit MS is trying to sell. That much is clear. CMA is still strong.
All that PR blitz from yesterday was smokes and mirrors.
I hope you're right.
Here's a quote from Idas on the other place though:
He seems to think it will close with local remedies only.
Doubt. It was already reported that MS tried this divestiture and CMA denied it. Then proceeded to reaffirm they stand by their final report, which recommends global divestiture.
The local divestiture Idas is mentioning is pure conjecture.
This, more or less. I was even floating the idea of COD divestiture (but in a way where MS would retain some partial stake in the divested asset, and have publishing rights to that content for Xbox platforms), though it seems if that approach is taken, it will just be for the UK market.
In that sense, MS still make out more than well. They divest COD into some separate entity for the UK market that they can retain partial stake in, get publishing rights on Xbox, while Sony gets publishing rights on PlayStation and Nintendo on Switch, and the divested entity publishes on PC and mobile. Probably mixed in with the automatic free 10-year deal cloud licenses the EC have already proposed. Meanwhile MS retains full ABK ownership in the rest of the global markets (at the rate things are going). They would probably be more than fine with that arrangement of divestiture specific to the UK market then, all parties would.
It's not what I personally thought would happen, because I would have expected that divestiture to apply to other global markets. Maybe there is a slim chance that happens in America, which would probably piss MS off a ton (deservedly IMO), but that only happens if the FTC win their appeal, and I don't have a lot of confidence in that after the results of the PI hearing. But yeah, that's what I could see happening for the UK, and that would probably be well fine in MS's eyes and ABK's too.
Like you, I genuinely don't think this is going to change much in the trajectory of what we're seeing right now because as you said, the partial divestitures would only apply to the UK market. So it's a win for that market in terms of something that works and addresses some actual concerns, but I don't see it happening in any of the other markets that really matter (such as the U.S), sadly.
That's why I'm 100% not getting my hopes up; I also expect MS to try closing outside the UK before the 18th deadline, and just work out some divestiture options like mentioned above with the CMA over a month or so to get approval for closure in that market, too. I'd love to think this CMA news reignites the possibility of the deal being stopped for all other markets but there's just too much saying otherwise for me to honestly believe it at this point.
And if I were Sony, I'd start planning some serious moves under the expectation of MS closing the deal and looking towards targeting other 3P partners of mine, and stopping that from happening. And, well, we know what that's going to mean: some acquisitions (at the very least) from Sony themselves. Is what it is at this point.
Hate to admit it but Idas is most likely correct on this. It sounds like localized partial divestiture/structural remedies for the UK market specifically. Which I'm guessing also means MS can just close the deal in other markets but hold off on the UK until this process is completed, which would still be in time for the holidays.
My only question is: since the original agreement required the UK approval by the 18th of this month, and even with these new talks it would extend well past the 18th, does Microsoft have to pay ABK the $3 billion or does renegotiation of the deal waive that since the deal as a whole isn't being ended, simply some terms changed? Or does the renegotiation count as a new deal, and the old one is void meaning MS still has to pay the $3 billion in theory?
I'm saying "in theory" because while ABK's shareholders could ask for a higher price, I don't think they will. Because if they stick to a similar premium, I think Microsoft would actually walk away from paying $100 billion or so for ABK, so the shareholders would effectively lose out on a guaranteed $66 billion for getting too greedy.
And that's "guaranteed" because the chances of the FTC winning the appeal are (IMO) very low (at least with the same lawyers they had for the PI hearing), almost all the other global markets have approved, the few holdouts are small enough to where I doubt MS or ABK would feel an impact if they simply decided not to officiate the acquisition in those markets (they operate as they currently do in them, basically), AND the CMA seem more willing to accept local divestitures that I'm guessing still give some benefits to Microsoft (like partial ownership of the divested asset via partial stakes).
Just feels like there's too much now in Microsoft's favor for this deal to fall apart. I only hope Sony are making plans to do a couple of noteworthy acquisitions of their own, and pump some investment money as well as buy shares in many of the big AAA and AA 3P publishers. Don't make Microsoft's strategy easy for them; nerf it at its core if you have to.
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So update.
1. CAT have not yet approved the delay on the appeal.
2. The CMA and MS are in talks, nothing accepted, nothing denied.
3. MS strategy might be to submit a new merger that includes structural remedies as opposed to behavioral remedies to satisfy CMA. The CMA will then take this and investigate up to phase 1 or, phase 2 if need be then submit their final recommendation or allow or prohibit in 3-5 months.
This new merger might also trigger regulators that have already approved to request that they also get a chance to re-probe this new merger.
MS think this would be better than risking CAT siding with the CMA having it go back to the CMA and them taking another year to deliberate. So all seems like this is the final hail mary from MS and a very desperate one, i mean what happens if other regs come back and say we have to also look at this new merger. All of this is unprecedented and have never happened before. To think that this is MS best chance of closing the deal is to be this desperate to accept this option.
Just so there is no doubts, The merger is still prohibited in the UK until the CMA lifts that and come out and say so themself. The CMA is very active on twitter, they can speak for themself, so unless they say its cleared dont believe what anyone says.
1. CAT have not yet approved the delay on the appeal.
2. The CMA and MS are in talks, nothing accepted, nothing denied.
3. MS strategy might be to submit a new merger that includes structural remedies as opposed to behavioral remedies to satisfy CMA. The CMA will then take this and investigate up to phase 1 or, phase 2 if need be then submit their final recommendation or allow or prohibit in 3-5 months.
This new merger might also trigger regulators that have already approved to request that they also get a chance to re-probe this new merger.
MS think this would be better than risking CAT siding with the CMA having it go back to the CMA and them taking another year to deliberate. So all seems like this is the final hail mary from MS and a very desperate one, i mean what happens if other regs come back and say we have to also look at this new merger. All of this is unprecedented and have never happened before. To think that this is MS best chance of closing the deal is to be this desperate to accept this option.
Just so there is no doubts, The merger is still prohibited in the UK until the CMA lifts that and come out and say so themself. The CMA is very active on twitter, they can speak for themself, so unless they say its cleared dont believe what anyone says.
This is exactly what'll happen.
If COD publishing rights and just hand some stake to a seperate entity was a valid structural remedy don't you think the CMA would have offered that from the get go?
There is a reason why CMA made the cod divestment for the IP and all of it's studios, so microsoft doesn't need to be monitored and enforced for any underhanded moves. I mean you can't force MS to make COD, so they can control their studios output to get around that.
After yesterday's PR Blitz, I'm only believing statements laid out by CMA itself.
Anything else can be either planted or manipulated by MS.
Anything else can be either planted or manipulated by MS.
If Microsoft was confidant that ABK would agree to an extension, why are they lying to media that cma agreed to remdy's that they apparently did not?
Licenses are considered behavioral remedy, we know from a few months ago the cma wont accept any thing behavioral, in that case they could have just accepted MS original remedy months ago.