But how does MS cut the 2:1 difference to a 1.5:1 difference if PS is gaining over them in not just ROTW markets, but also the UK and even the US? Do you really thing the appeal of games like Starfield in GP will make the difference?
Because I can say this right now: even if/when MS get approved for ABK, they aren't putting new COD games into Game Pass Day 1. They simply aren't going to keep subsidizing money for the Xbox division that much going forward, and they aren't going to cut the legs of COD's revenue potential through direct sales by putting it Day 1 in a service with various cheap loopholes available that drive down the ARPU.
They're gaining over them now because Microsoft's output has been non-existent for the most part. Also, the hardcore fans already own their console of choice where as the later years is usually casual that jump in and if Microsoft has a $200 Series S and Game Pass, that's simply a lot to overcome. A lot of games will give Game Pass a boost. What will do it most is just Microsoft being consistent with releases.
As for COD, it will be day one in Game Pass as will every Microsoft first party game. They're not going to change that or make any exceptions regardless of the game. Doing that would harm their platform, eco-system and messaging more than not having as many sales on Xbox. For Microsoft and Xbox, they'll never reach the sales numbers of Sony and no one is reaching is Nintendo so for them, it's all about Game Pass and the best way to build it is by having massive games in the service.
You're looking way too into the money aspect but not taking into account the sales COD would still get on Battle.net, Steam, PlayStation (if available) and Nintendo. Losing sales on Xbox but gaining subscribers will be far more valuable plus don't forget, they will gain a shit ton of revenue from micro-transactions across all platforms.
But here's the thing: at one point, MS actually did have a lot of favorable mindshare. When they revealed Series X at TGAs 2019, it was a success. Sony came out with a PS5 logo and got laughed at. Even after Sony fully revealed the PS5 in March 2020 (aside from how it looked), mind share for Series X held pretty well.
Then May 2020 happened. The combination of that "gameplay" showcase, then the PS5 UE5 demo coming right after, was probably the first big mistake for MS leading into this gen. Halo Infinite's mediocre showcase the following June was another blow, then afterwards revealing the Series S because IMO, they started confusing their messaging. You can't argue you have both the most powerful and cheapest console on the market if they're two different consoles and the former isn't demonstrating its supposed power.
Since then all of their messaging & marketing has basically veered towards Series S and Game Pass; I think if MS either made Series S what Project Keystone was set to be, and/or just forwent Series S altogether to focus on Series X and pushing its power, they'd of probably actually been holding well in the US or even be slightly ahead of PS5 in NA. Particularly because 2021 was, in honesty, a bit of a "light" year for PS5 exclusives, meanwhile MS had both Forza & Halo releasing, plus some notable Day 1 Game Pass games.
If there was any year where MS could have actually gained a lead on PlayStation, at least in US & UK, it was 2021, if we're talking anything not having to do with outside factors like supply constraints and supply inflation increases. But I think MS missed their chance and now they aren't getting another. What really changes for MS from 2024-onward vs. now? Yes they will have more big games but so will PlayStation, and Sony will likely have more of them. PS5 will be even stronger of a market performer by then than they are right now, so for whatever gains Xbox makes, they won't be enough (most likely) to keep full pace let alone start closing the gap.
Because, again, there's also ROTW and outside of US & UK, PS tends to vastly outperform Xbox. US & UK were at least 65% of 360's market share. It was close to similar with XBO. Considering numbers we've gotten from other foreign markets there's no reason to assume Series ROTW market share is any higher than 40% of total sales volume so the question becomes what is Microsoft going to bring to start getting serious in THOSE markets that isn't just simply Game Pass and xCloud availability?
I agree with this for the most part but again, as I have said, Microsoft just needs to be consistent with their first party releases. The quality is there regardless of what anyone wants to think or believe but the quantity and most importantly, the consistency isn't. Microsoft was thrashed in Europe last generation. It won't be the same this generation. It's all about Game Pass. This is their answer. It's not going to happen overnight but we saw a huge increase in subscriptions because of their 2021 second half lineup. They stay consistent, they will gain market share because people will want to play the games and with a lot of regions where games are $100+ for a single release, Game Pass is going to look like a Godsend. They don't need to do anything else. Game Pass IS their answer.
My belief though is that Series X volumes are only low because MS allocated what could have gone towards more Series Xs, and directed that towards Series S production budgets instead.
The whole angle of selling as the cheap option with Game Pass isn't working as well as MS would have liked; it's been said before that Series S is underperforming relative to its intent and the new NPD number leaks just outright confirm that IMHO. The fact is, they need those big 1P games consistently to benefit both the X AND the S; simply trying to sell the power narrative or cheap value narrative isn't working as well as MS probably projected it would.
Series S only didn't do as well last year because well, there's no first party output. Do you really believe that 2023 will be a repeat if they release 5 or so first party games? Microsoft knew that once they delayed Starfield, Redfall and Forza Motorsport that they were going to take a hit overall and that's fine because they have a long way to go with this generation.
Again, what are MS offering 2024-onward that suggests they have anything to close the gaps globally? What games are they bringing which will have the appeal globally to do so? And I'm talking about among what they actually own right now, not hypotheticals like if they get ABK (because a good deal of that content will still be on PlayStation and some of it will not hit Game Pass Day 1, such as COD or games like Diablo for that matter).
I'm not saying they don't have games coming post-2024, or that they don't have anything good in the pipeline. But marketability-wise, in terms of having mass appeal in many global markets, what do they really have? TES VI is the only game I can think of at the top of my head maybe helping there.
Hellblade 2, Fable, Indiana Jones, The Elder Scrolls VI, next Coalition, Id Software, etc. games. Plus Avowed, The Outer Worlds 2, etc. They have plenty of games and the reason they'll increase their console market share is because many people will want to play these games and when they know they can get it on Game Pass day one, why wouldn't they jump in? Microsoft doesn't need the big blockbuster game because they're not reliant on console sales and whatnot. They just want you in the eco-system which for this generation will mainly be console but there will still be those who play on PC and possibly streaming later on in the generation. It's more of a collection of various options as opposed to just one singular one.
That's assuming Project Keystone is still coming. Personally, I think it is, but then the question becomes how appealing is cloud gaming really to the mass market?
I think MS are running into a similar problem Sega did back in the mid-'90s: too many gaming products eating at each other among their brand base and product line. It can also lead to a fractured focus in software development, similar to what we saw with Sega back then. The problems manifest a bit differently but I think there are definitely some core similarities between the two.
The difference is that MS has money to try attempting that and weather the storm if things don't work; Sega didn't. But that doesn't prevent Microsoft from potentially alienating more customers than they gain, and that's something they could risk with having so many divergent console gaming products being simultaneously offered, even if some are for cloud gaming exclusively, because that still means a finite budget for resources (production, R&D, marketing etc.) has to be spread among more products. It also means their 1P teams will have to be more considerate of the technical limits of these various devices, which can affect game scope and features to varying degrees.
The difference though is that the development will still be the same like Switch is for Nintendo. Instead of dividing studios to develop games for a console, a handheld, etc., Microsoft does one version of the game and it simply gets optimized for how you want to play it. I don't think that they will have a Streaming stick or anything like that. I believe that they will Game Pass included in 4KTV's later this generation like Netflix and whatnot to where you just access it. They have that adapter for the controller that you connect into the USB port and that's it. You're good to go.
Two consoles like it is now. PC for those who want the best superior experience and TV apps/cloud for those who just want access to the subscription service and games. And of course, cloud will be there for those who play on the go or are on business trips/vacations.
Sega oversaturated their own market with Genesis, 32X and Sega CD. All three were different, required different games and whatnot. This is not Microsoft is doing. For them, it's all going to be seamless and integrated. This is why I believe they eliminated Keystone. Why having a streaming stick when you can just make deals with TV manufacturers to include a Game Pass app pre-loaded right out of the box? That's how I see it anyway.
Have to wait and see how the generation plays out. I simply believe that it won't play out like majority believe it will. Again, we'll see.
