Phil Spencer admits defeat in console space, and doesn't think great games would help Xbox's market share.

[Nhomnhom]

Cross posting from another thread

Tinfoil hat theory:

So thought i had about Phil complaining about competitors making deals. So a few months ago we all know the CMA dropped console concerns right? And sony had a rebuttle and they were very upset, going as far as to say the CMA was irrational right? So here's my tinfoil hat theory.:

With backdrop that the CMA dropped console concerns, Sony got really worried and signed some BIG third party exclusives to save face for when the CMA was supposed to approve the activsion deal. We also know Sony took about a billion from their current acquisitions budget from 5.1 to like 3.7 or something. So...whered the money go? They said its to focus on internal first party studios, but im thinking they used a little over a billion of funds set aside for acquisitions for big third party deals.

I do not expect something as big as say a gta 6, but say they did. Say they paid take 2 one billion dollars for a year timed exclsuive gta 6. That would cover about 12-14 million sales worth of 70.00 games sold on xbox. Now assume gta 6 comes out at the end of 2024, whats the installed bases going to look like? PS5 close to 70 million, xbox mayyybe 30 million? Now would all 30 million buy gta? Would 1/3? Maybe. And maybe thats what 1 billion could cover.

Again this is a tinfoil hat theory and i dont believe sony or anyone could get gta 6 console exclusivity, but just something to think about in the context of Phil complaining about compeitiors making deals. Unless he's that upset about Final fantasy of all things.

Third-party publishers are so slow to produce games that there aren't really that many big games to buy.

 

[AshHunter216]

Cross posting from another thread

Tinfoil hat theory:

So thought i had about Phil complaining about competitors making deals. So a few months ago we all know the CMA dropped console concerns right? And sony had a rebuttle and they were very upset, going as far as to say the CMA was irrational right? So here's my tinfoil hat theory.:

With backdrop that the CMA dropped console concerns, Sony got really worried and signed some BIG third party exclusives to save face for when the CMA was supposed to approve the activsion deal. We also know Sony took about a billion from their current acquisitions budget from 5.1 to like 3.7 or something. So...whered the money go? They said its to focus on internal first party studios, but im thinking they used a little over a billion of funds set aside for acquisitions for big third party deals.

I do not expect something as big as say a gta 6, but say they did. Say they paid take 2 one billion dollars for a year timed exclsuive gta 6. That would cover about 12-14 million sales worth of 70.00 games sold on xbox. Now assume gta 6 comes out at the end of 2024, whats the installed bases going to look like? PS5 close to 70 million, xbox mayyybe 30 million? Now would all 30 million buy gta? Would 1/3? Maybe. And maybe thats what 1 billion could cover.

Again this is a tinfoil hat theory and i dont believe sony or anyone could get gta 6 console exclusivity, but just something to think about in the context of Phil complaining about compeitiors making deals. Unless he's that upset about Final fantasy of all things.

I don't think that's it. MS were probably just mad about Final Fantasy, as well as street fighter from last gen, which is why they've had senators complain about Japan lately.

 

[Bryank75]

He admitted defeat, I mean, how can anyone compete against Sony in the console market? We want a better Sony.

How can someone confidently buy an Xbox now and be sure it will be supported and the games they buy will still be there in a few years?

I would never buy in now.

 

[Plextorage]

Lono from Reforge Gaming is going off, some great points:

Uh, almost 2 hours. At which point he starting to talk strictly what Phil Spencer said?

 

[Papacheeks]

Uh, almost 2 hours. At which point he starting to talk strictly what Phil Spencer said?

His previous videos he has called a lot of what Phil was saying about what happened to redfall.

WTF?

Like almost immediately? He goes over the whole interview and breaks down some of the things Phil said and inadvertently said.
Lono is super smart.

My view has now changed to, Phil is still not super great in his position. But it does feel like even in his high up position there seems to be road blocks setup by rest of company. Either that be structurally, or contractually.
He comes off like he wants to make great games, but the work needed to do so and structure within the company he has to work against undermines it. Specifically when talking about Bethesda.

About 20 Minutes in Lono goes over DAVID Smith the director of Redfall who Phil in his interview felt like was apologizing for letting him down. Which to me sounds like not intervening early enough, and possibly for changes Microsoft enforced. It does come off like Phil's hands are tied regardless of his position.
It's interesting. I bet there's a story being written, and people interviewed right now. And it may shed some light on whats going on over at xbox.
It does Feel like Phil is in a way doing this interview to show the execs he himself is fed up. Pretty sure they make him the scape goat after this.

Or they surprise everyone, keep phil and make internal changes company wide?

If you want certain specifics he starts at 19 Minutes in:

 

[arvfab]

I don't think that's it. MS were probably just mad about Final Fantasy, as well as street fighter from last gen, which is why they've had senators complain about Japan lately.

Why should they be mad? They managed to get FFXIII and FFXV on Xbox, but they sold like shit on their platforms and coincidentally, they are both often seen as the worst entries by FF fans.

And regarding SF5, if it wasn't for Sony funding it and making the IP relevant again, SF6 probably wouldn't exist.

 

[KiryuRealty]

As a PS fan, this is very, very bad for all gamers, Man we need an MS or Nintendo to compete with SONY/PS to create great software, great hardware/technology and at competing prices. Without them, I think we can PS becoming more anticompetitive.

MS hasn’t been serious competition for 15 years and Sony has hit peak after peak.

Sony needing MS is bullshit repeated by the clueless and shills.

 

[KiryuRealty]

I still have my launch PS3. It didn't have a party system at launch. PS HOME was the first way you could invite a PSN friend to a game. It was bad.

Did you know that most of that is because MS had ridiculous patents on basic functions like friends and system chat that Sony had to work around, and not because MS were geniuses and Sony sucked at online?

 

[KiryuRealty]

I'm sorry, if my post is Fear mongering, just posting my thoughts out there. But the gaming industry is healthy when we have all three companies fighting it out and creating great games for us.

Your post isn’t fearmongering, it’s just a dumb post.

 

[flaccidsnake]

Did you know that most of that is because MS had ridiculous patents on basic functions like friends and system chat that Sony had to work around, and not because MS were geniuses and Sony sucked at online?

I did not know that, and I wonder how true it actually is. Anyway, what was the excuse on PS2 vs OG Xbox? It's undeniable that Sony was behind the 8-ball on online functionality and caught up bigly with PS4.

Also obligatory fuck patents, and fuck copyright too.

 

[KiryuRealty]

I did not know that, and I wonder how true it actually is. Anyway, what was the excuse on PS2 vs OG Xbox? It's undeniable that Sony was behind the 8-ball on online functionality and caught up bigly with PS4.

Also obligatory fuck patents, and fuck copyright too.

It’s absolutely true.

Also, the PS2 Vs XBox difference was that nobody in gaming saw a need for a unified online system, nor did they want one.

 

[PropellerEar]

I'm sorry, if my post is Fear mongering, just posting my thoughts out there. But the gaming industry is healthy when we have all three companies fighting it out and creating great games for us.

That's what all gamers want, great games!

 

[Dabaus]

It just occurred to me this that weve all been played. This isn’t them conceding defeat, this is just a new way of feigning weakness for regulators. They sent Phil out there all battered and beaten down as a ploy. A con man is a con man all the time.
It’s not act for him, he’s is conning you at every moment. This is just a new con. Don’t fall for it.

 

[Vertigo]

I’m sure it’s been said… but Phil did a great job selling PS5s with this interview.

 

[Dabaus]

How has no one noticed the only reason for this public statement is for M$ to look like it has a weaker position in the market so that their activision deal can go through? That is the only reason. The more it blows up, the more authentic it looks, the stronger their arguments in the courts.

 

[Box]

It just occurred to me this that weve all been played. This isn’t them conceding defeat, this is just a new way of feigning weakness for regulators. They sent Phil out there all battered and beaten down as a ploy. A con man is a con man all the time.
It’s not act for him, he’s is conning you at every moment. This is just a new con. Don’t fall for it.

Let's hope that even if they do get Activision, they mismanage them so badly.

 

[AshHunter216]

Regulator concerns aren't even about the console market at this point, it's the cloud market, so there would be no point in doing an interview like this if that were the reason. I think folks are getting themselves worked up over a common PR damage-control circuit and reading too deeply into it. There's also the fact that regulators have access to all the documents showing how phony the weak act actually is. If anything, this interview shows how poorly they would manage any major publishers they bought and damage the industry.

 

[Fenton]

 

[Lord Mittens]

 

[Bryank75]

His previous videos he has called a lot of what Phil was saying about what happened to redfall.

WTF?

Like almost immediately? He goes over the whole interview and breaks down some of the things Phil said and inadvertently said.
Lono is super smart.

My view has now changed to, Phil is still not super great in his position. But it does feel like even in his high up position there seems to be road blocks setup by rest of company. Either that be structurally, or contractually.
He comes off like he wants to make great games, but the work needed to do so and structure within the company he has to work against undermines it. Specifically when talking about Bethesda.

About 20 Minutes in Lono goes over DAVID Smith the director of Redfall who Phil in his interview felt like was apologizing for letting him down. Which to me sounds like not intervening early enough, and possibly for changes Microsoft enforced. It does come off like Phil's hands are tied regardless of his position.
It's interesting. I bet there's a story being written, and people interviewed right now. And it may shed some light on whats going on over at xbox.
It does Feel like Phil is in a way doing this interview to show the execs he himself is fed up. Pretty sure they make him the scape goat after this.

Or they surprise everyone, keep phil and make internal changes company wide?

If you want certain specifics he starts at 19 Minutes in:

Lono's stuff is fantastic, his commentary and monologues are top tier. He works his ass off obviously. He has brought gaming commentary to a higher level.