We called it years ago.
Sales diminish on console, and the PC release delay starts diminishing leading in turn to less sales, and those idiots will just keep on shortening it further, feeding the vicious cycle.
I'm ready to predict that Death Stranding 2 might end up being the Day 1 PC release since it's not an internal 1P project (even though SIE own the IP), being made by a 3P (Kojima Productions). It's the safest Day 1 release of a big 1P AAA they can do, theoretically speaking.
And with that in mind if the trend continues from there (including what just feel like inevitable ports for Demon's Souls and GT7), this is what I can picture sales looking like going forward.
PS5 (non-Pro): 90-95 million (EOY 2028)
PS5 Pro: 8-9 million (EOY 2028)
PS5 (regular + Pro): 98-104 million (EOY 2028)
PS6 (Year 1): 10-11 million (PS4 did ~ 14 million Year 1, PS5 did 14 million Year 1), no supply constraints (demand-limited)
Also those PS6 estimates assume a $499, maybe $599 price for higher-end SKU. If the base SKU is Pro-level pricing, drop that down to 8-9 million for Year 1 (these are XBO-level numbers at this point)
And you're 100% right: it's a vicious, self-defeating cycle feeding on itself. A self-created Catch 22. If they go this path with the ports, and they keep on that path, I can definitely see PS6 getting 70-80 million lifetime (Pro-like launch price and slower price drops), at best 85-90 million lifetime.
But you know something else? If all their 1P goes Day 1, guess what stops getting 3P timed exclusives? PlayStation consoles. Because why would 3P do timed exclusivity if Sony won't with their own games? That could
easily drag every number I just mentioned down by up to 15%, maybe even up to 20% in PS6's case.
It didn't have to be this way. It shouldn't have been this way. But it's what SIE wants to do, so there's nothing we can really do about it :/
Remaster the older games that people actually want to replay on console.
Do not restrict yourself to a handful of blockbusters, also fund and release AA games to add variety to the library.
Keep your platform alive and well, and third parties will flock to it. See: PS2, late PS3 and most of the PS4 generation.
Let it wither... well, I guess they'll only learn when it's too late. The decline has already started.
They've been resorting to rampant sales promos across Europe for more or less the whole year to keep numbers from dropping any further than they have. That's not the best sign of a healthy platform.
Yet we will still have people saying that what's happened in Japan is an anomaly and can't happen in other markets
.
NOTHING is "too big to fail", not when we're talking about singular platforms or businesses.