NPD December 2022 (PS5 #1 Revenue, Switch #1 Units, Xbox @ $200 Forever #3, Leaked LTD up to Nov 2022: 10.6m PS5 / 8.7m Xbox)
- Thread starter ethomaz
- Start date
nah i was worried because you were having a seizure of something? are u ok homie?
Estimates are a tricky business because of the limited information out there. It's fine; don't worry.
By the way, do you have any spreadsheet with older estimates (or corrected figures based on Aqua numbers she shared later)? If you do, please do share. It'd be interesting to do YoY comparisons and figure out how both PS5 and X|S are performing in relation to each other and their previous generations.
With LTD sales in US up to November it time to estimate WW sales for Series:
55% US: 15.9m
58% US: 15.1m
60% US: 14.6m
US and Global sales ratio was never close to 50%... so we can estimate that Xbox is being very optimistic at max 16 million sold WW as Nov 2022.
55% US: 15.9m
58% US: 15.1m
60% US: 14.6m
US and Global sales ratio was never close to 50%... so we can estimate that Xbox is being very optimistic at max 16 million sold WW as Nov 2022.
You guestimates are guestimates... I give you that... and that is fine.
But you trend to favor Xbox over PlayStation in these guestimates... and the last NPD data showed again that.
Remember that? There are others example but that is just one of the recent ones.
That was before Amepere said Xbox was at 13.8m.
And do you realize with these US data it is impossible to Xbox be at 15 million sell-thought in June? It is more accurate to say it is around that at end of November 2022? Even if you use a 55/45 US ratio you will have less than 16 million sell-thought at November 2022.
If you do a bad public estimate then you are open to be criticized about that bad estimate.
You indeed trend to overestimate Xbox and underestimate PlayStation in your estimates for whatever reason.
BTW US data supports that Xbox shipment is probably below 20 million as end of December 2022.... unless there are over 2 million Xbox units on shelves right now.
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I would be interested to know examples of games you think are or aren't casual. 5 of each, maybe?
I don't like estimating sell through worldwide as there is a lot of variance. The shipments I've been calculating point towards US having less than half of worldwide sales (with XBS still being ahead of XB1 despite US sales being down), so I base sell through on that. When I made that tweet I was assuming the shipment gap would only be around 1M but it could be larger. Even then I don't think Ampere and I are that far off of each other with that sell through.
XBS sell through in the US at June 2022 is 7M. Ampere suggests that the US is slightly more than half of worldwide sales at that point. In the grand scheme of things, ~14M and ~15M are not that different. It's not a bad estimate lol, if I said Xbox sell through was 18M, that would be bad, or if I said 12M. You are getting hung up on a difference of less than 10%. It would be like saying if I estimate Y console at 63M and it's revealed to really be 65M, that my estimate is bad because you look at like "he's off by 2M!" and not "hmm the higher in the millions you get, the harder it's going to be to nail a number". If I'm off by more than 10% then yeah, something went wrong on my end. If I can get a number within 10% despite me only using public info, that's a success.
XBS sell through should be over 18M. Ampere said 7.7M were sold in 2021 (total 10.5M) and US sales alone are going to be up by at least 500K (assuming the lowest Xbox in December got is 700K), and we know Japan is up over 2021 and Europe is basically flat. 8M would be a low ball and that would put Ampere LTD at 18.5M, more likely touching 19M which would put XBS about equal to XB1 launch aligned in sell through.
To Xbox sell-through be over 18m at end of December you need to assume Xbox sold 1 million December in US (being very optimistic) and that US represents less than 53% of Worldwide sales.
I doubt that because US ratio historically never reached that low for Xbox… most close was 360 due late sales in emergent market.
If Xbox sold less than 1 million in US December then the things become even more dry… 52% ratio is something very unlikely… it should need to Xbox decrease sales in US and increase it outside US and there is no evidence in the countries outside US that Xbox increased sales.
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US 2021: 3730K
US 2022 November YTD: 3538K
Xbox only needs to sell 500K in December to be +300K over 2021 which would put 2022 at 8M according to Ampere's 2021 estimates.
Ampere estimated 10.5M XBS at the end of 2021, and NPD LTD was 5.22M, or just under 50% for US share. 2021 alone was 7.7M, so US share was 48%.
Europe is flat and Japan is up from 2021. Other regions could be up or down but that gets negated or boosted by Xbox selling more than 500K in December NPD.
It's this post with the NPD numbers
Aquamarine leaked some NPD data in InstallBase.
PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K
XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K
And how Welfare overtimater Xbox in more than 300k and underestimate PS5 in more than 200k in these months
NPD December 2022: #1 MW2 #2 Pokemon #3 God of War; NSW #1 Units (PS5 #2) PS5 #1 Revenue (NSW #2) [UPDATE: Full Report Out]
You expect TOTK to sell 23-25M (which is like 80% of BOTW LTD sales) in 8 months? I mean Splatoon's just done that in the past few months so why notwww.installbaseforum.com
Welfare’s guesstimates lol
Xbox PS5 260,000 (=) 270,000 (-7K) 260,000 (+13K) 280,000 (-21K) 240,000 (-10K) 330,000 (-11K) 320,000 (+32K) 460,000 (-34K) 310,000 (+51K) 400,000 (-56K) 950,000 (+220K) 1,200,000 (-138K)
Can you source me that 5.22m in NPD at end of 2021? Because it true then Ampere is overestimating Xbox imo (not the first time… they did with Xbox One and previous consoles).
Below 50% was something neither 360 with high push of emergent market late in the gen could reach.
Japan up doesn't change anything... it is like 150k (it will decrease 0.8% to the ratio).
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NPD leaks for 2020 were 1.49M and CESA had 2021 at 3.73M https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...ames-white-paper-hardware-sales-in-2021.1025/
But actually 2021 LTD should be 5199K or 5198K. I just remembered Aqua gave LTD back with May data and XBS LTD was 6700K, 2022 was 1501K, and this recent November LTD puts 2021 LTD at 5198K, so NPD adjusted Xbox down slightly in 2020 and 2021.
I think you just want Xbox to be low at this point if you're now questioning Ampere. XBS tracks ahead of XB1 worldwide despite being behind in the US and UK, traditional country splits are not applicable this gen, especially since PS5 has the highest US share of any PS console so far. Where did they overestimate Xbox One?
I questioned Ampere a lot of times in the past and they were proved to be not accurate or post shipment estimate as sell-throught.
No matter if I wish if Xbox is low the accuracy is more important.
We don't have NPD data for end of 2021?
But looking at your data from Aqua seems like 2021 was around 5.21m to 5.22m.
Let's see how Ampere 2022 estimate will show both consoles but I doubt US is less than 52% of Series sales... that does't make sense at all.
About Series ahead XB1 I think it was until end of September... not sure if it is right now... probably not... in any case it was very close.
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I think one thing that could muddy the waters in terms of revenue numbers for Microsoft is that they probably include controllers and accessories in their "Hardware" so it gives the impression that xbox hardware revenue is better than it really is. When in reality a not insignificant chunk are controllers. Its not for nothing they have a new controller announced like every month?
I've already proven this isn't the case over a year ago.
Official reported Xbox hardware shipments 2014 - 2015
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Do note that for the fiscal year Microsoft reported 12.1M shipments so some or all quarters here are not exactly 2,400,000 for example.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit 2,400,000 or slightly above combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Do note that for the fiscal year Microsoft reported 12.1M shipments so some or all quarters here are not exactly 2,400,000 for example.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit 2,400,000 or slightly above combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.